The Grounded Gallipoli Tehran Wants

President Trump faces a major risk of being baited into a ground or amphibious operation which would benefit the Iranian regime, as its fortified terrain is a major advantage.

The ongoing US-Iran War has inflamed the Middle East and is now embroiling the world’s economy. Lacking an effective way to stop US and Israeli aerial dominance, it appears that the Iranian regime has opted for economic warfare as the only way to deter a potential regime overthrow.

The global economy is facing a energy and fertilizer crisis with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which the Trump Administration seems to have failed to anticipate. Due to weeks-long closures that haven’t been lifted despite relentless US and Israeli airstrikes, boots on the ground will likely be needed to secure maritime shipping lanes if diplomatic efforts fail.

If a ground invasion were to ensue, it would play into the hands of the ruling clerics and Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), whose terrain is a death trap, arguably more fortified than Gallipoli. With a potential rise in US casualties, fueled by a growing global energy and fertilizer crisis, the regime looks to endure and survive, which could give them favorable terms against the US akin to the Viet Minh in Vietnam.

Escalation in the US-Iran War

After the shock and awe strikes that took out much of the Iranian regime’s senior military and political leadership, the war quickly embroiled the entire region, with at least a dozen countries taking blowback from Iranian drones and ballistic missiles.

Iranian missiles have landed in civilian areas. In return, the US and Israel conducted extensive campaign bombings, one of which ultimately destroyed a school full of children, which the Pentagon later acknowledged. Additionally, attacks on Iran’s water desalination plants could have dangerous effects if the regime decides to retaliate against those same facilities in Gulf states where the US hosts bases, as Arab countries rely on them.

The biggest blunder of the war thus far was the failure to calculate the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s energy and a further 30% of fertilizer passes through. The markets have sounded alarms of what a prolonged closure of the Strait could be, with some estimates of prices reaching $150-$200 a barrel if it continues into the late spring/summer.

Despite a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iran still exports containers to China, which adds income to keep the regime afloat. Furthermore, sanctions have been slowly eased for Russia for energy exports, which allows the Kremlin extra income to help Moscow continue its war effort against Ukraine.

The US Mission Creep

Amid gaps in naval patrols exacerbated by a shipbuilding paralysis, the United States could be unable to fully secure the Strait of Hormuz without a full coalition of various countries or ground troops.

One of the preparations to prepare for potential ground troops has been the redeployment of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) and its Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) towards the Middle East from Okinawa, Japan. The 31st MEU is meant to be a quick reaction force to a Taiwan Contingency or war on the Korean Peninsula, and along with the redeployment of missile defense systems in South Korea, gaps have been left in the Indo-Pacific.

Furthermore, the Trump Administration has asked for an international coalition to protect maritime shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. However, it remains to be seen how many countries will participate, for several reasons.

First, splits in alliances amongst allies in Europe and Asia have occurred during the Second Trump Administration over trade policies and unnecessarily heightened diplomatic conflicts, such as the Greenland standoff and remarks over sacrifices by NATO members in Afghanistan.

Secondly, tensions across other continents will leave many US allies preoccupied with responding to Middle East tensions. Russia has continued to escalate its war against Ukraine which is taking up many European resources, and tensions in the Indo-Pacific with China and North Korea have put key allies such as South Korea, Japan, and Australia in a bind as US assets are already redeployed towards the war in Iran.

Reflections of Gallipoli with Iran’s Geographic Fortress Advantage

Securing Iran’s coastline will be a insurmountable task that could need hundreds of thousands of troops, but the Trump Administration has hinted it will go for more strategic islands such as Kharg, Kish, or Qeshm. Still, US forces that could conduct amphibious landings, such as the US Marines, risk being exposed to the IRGC’s geographic advantage.

If US Marines conduct an amphibious assault and attempt to hold Kharg Island, which is a jewel of Iran’s energy exports, US forces risk being sitting targets without sufficient defenses. Kharg is only several dozen kilometers away from the near-impassible Zagros Mountains, which will have IRGC firing positions within them.

Kharg Island and Iran’s coastline are fully within conventional artillery range, and any amphibious insertion and holding operation would come under constant bombardment by mortars, short-range ballistic missiles, anti-tank fire, and Iran’s deadly and cheaply produced Shahed drones. The potential of amassing significant American deaths could be not only a deterrent for the Iranian regime, but also a potential propaganda tool if the US commits to ground operations, which could bear the hallmarks of the Gallipoli campaign.

During the Gallipoli campaign, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, France, and others encountered punishing terrain and narrow staging grounds, which permitted Ottoman forces to inflict significant casualties against the Entente that ultimately led to a humiliating withdrawal in World War I.

Allied troops withdrawing from Gallipoli.

Akin to Turkey’s Dardanelles, Iran’s Strait of Hormuz holds narrow chokepoints, which are perfect conditions for Iran’s regime to dig in and create fortifications and fighting positions for ambushes. With mountainous fortifications, US troops will struggle to secure a safe Strait without completely securing Iran’s heights, which could come with substantial casualties similar to what happened in Gallipoli.

The Strait of Hormuz.

The Regime Looks to Demoralise Americans and Establish Regional Deterrence

The Iranian regime is well aware that it cannot match the US and Israeli technological advantage. With its air defenses incapacitated and most of their launchers destroyed, the IRGC instead wants to use a ground advantage to secure favorable terms. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz was the one card Tehran could play that now requires either favorable diplomatic measures or an US-led ground operation to relieve, and that presents the Trump Administration with multiple problems.

Americans have been historically sensitive to troop casualties, and lifting the blockade could come at a major price of US troop casualties. Wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq led to major diplomatic pushback as US troop casualties mounted, and a repeat in the Iran War could similarly force an end to the conflict without a full resolution.

Already having one of the most unpopular administrations in US history and being alienated from allies, President Trump faces a major risk of being baited into a ground or amphibious operation, which the Iranian regime wants, as its fortified terrain is a major advantage to its forces.

Furthermore, 2026 is a midterm year, and Democrats have made key gains against Trump-led Republicans over the past year. Already an unpopular war, growing US casualties could see a repeat of the 2008 election and anti-war movement that sidelined the Republican Party.

Lacking a military advantage, the Iranian regime has played its Gallipoli card. The Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened without a major international maritime escort or US-led amphibious operation, which is favorable to the IRGC’s firing positions around the narrow chokepoint.

President Trump’s choices are now pyrrhic: ending the war on terms which both sides find acceptable, a total war which further exacerbates the global energy and fertilizer crisis, or a Gallipoli-style operation in the Strait that would potentially see casualty levels that the US hasn’t seen since Vietnam.