March 10, 2026
News, Middle East & North Africa, Defence & Security, International Relations

The War Against Time in the Middle East

By Julian McBride

The ongoing American-Iranian War is now a race against time, as the failure to calculate a broader range of critical energy assets, maritime shipping lanes, and the will of the hardliners to keep fighting was underestimated by war planners in the United States and Israel. Now facing a protracted conflict with little allied support, potential American domestic pushback, and repercussions on the global economy, the United States may find itself in another perpetual conflict in the Middle East with Iran.

On February 28th, 2026, the United States and Israel initiated a war against Iran after a military buildup not seen since the 2003 Iraq war (Institute for the Study of War, 2026). Gaining quick strategic success, America and Israel have gained control of the skies, heavily depleting Iranian missile launchers (Center for European Policy Analysis, 2026).

However, the war is facing growing blowback as it is not only intertwining the Middle East but also the global economy, as Iran’s remaining leadership has enacted an energy war strategy (Time Magazine, 2026a). The Strait of Hormuz is seeing a significant drop in maritime activity, with Gulf states suffering drone attacks on refineries (NBC News, 2026).

With domestic and international opinion growing against the Trump Administration’s handling of the war, along with major economic setbacks to the global economy, Washington either has to find a quick and favorable capitulation or fall into the 2003 Iraq War trap with significant recession indicators.

Global Energy Crisis

Against the backdrop of the shock and awe campaign by the United States and Israel that eliminated much of Iran’s political leadership and missile launchers, the remaining military hardliners in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) moved to a phase of total war (New York Times, 2026a).

Absent much of its political leadership, the IRGC has militarily retaliated against over a dozen countries in the region (Iran International, 2026). A major target in Tehran’s retaliation is energy exports, which both the West and the East rely on.

Iranian drones and missiles have put a strain on global shipping and maritime energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a narrow choke point adjacent to Tehran’s western border (Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2026). Disruption over the Strait has caused energy prices to rise to their highest levels since the summer of 2022 (NewsNation, 2026).

Furthermore, the IRGC’s strategy of employing low-cost Shahed drones against energy facilities in Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar has not only resulted in damage but also rising costs to intercept (New York Times, 2026b). American-made Patriot interceptors range from $3 to $4 million per missile, while the Iranian-made Shahed drone costs as little as $20,000 (Military Watch Magazine, 2026).

Interceptions have become expensive enough that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reached out to the United States, offering specialists to take down Iranian drones in the region, which the U.S. accepted (France24, 2026).

Iran’s Potential Strategy

The majority of Iran’s missile launchers have been incapacitated within one week of the war, and both the American and Israeli Air Forces have unabated air superiority over the Islamic Republic. However, according to a March 6th article in the Wall Street Journal, the Mullahs learned from the 12 Day War (Wall Street Journal, 2026). They gave field commanders more autonomy to use their missiles and drones even if leadership was decapitated.

Furthermore, in an article with Time Magazine, Iran’s foreign minister implied that what remains of the leadership will not surrender, and the IRGC and remaining regime forces are ready for a ground invasion (Time Magazine, 2026b). Iran’s geography itself is a major conundrum as the country is surrounded by near-impassable mountains on all four sides, which are perfect for counter-insurgency and asymmetrical warfare (International Policy Digest, 2026).

Secondly, the United States general public historically has been sensitive to troop deaths, and major blowback took place in wars within Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan as a result (PMC, 2022). A potential insertion of ground troops that could almost certainly lead to exacerbated casualties could also force the U.S. government’s hand and calculations.

Third, the IRGC could end up having a foothold in the end, as conventional bombing historically did not deter regimes such as Saddam’s, Milosevic’s, and even Imperial Japan, which was nuked as a last resort before a ground invasion (Imperial War Museums, n.d.). Without potential ground troops, the remaining hardliners of the IRGC will become even more brutal towards Iranian civilians, which in turn could cause another major refugee crisis that both the European Union and Turkey are warning of (Courthouse News Service, 2026).

Fourth, if the Trump Administration utilized proxy ground forces, such as the Kurds, it could lead to a wider regional conflict. Already betrayed previously, the Kurds will be wary of American promises, and the IRGC could retaliate if they think Kurds in Iran are ‘spies’ (Atlas Institute, 2026).

Furthermore, any potential Kurdish armed involvement could trigger a Turkish military reaction, as Ankara’s red line has always been strong Kurdish militias on its border (National Interest, 2026). Because of this, the U.S. would be hesitant to supply heavy weaponry to the Kurds, which could lead to mass slaughter by the more heavily armed IRGC.

Fifth, the Gulf states, which hold major influence over the Trump Administration, are feeling the socioeconomic consequences of the war (Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2026). With Iranian drone and missile attacks on their residential areas, frequented by tourists, not only are the Gulf states losing major tourism income but also investments from wealthy businessmen who invest in their economies (Forbes, 2026). If the war increases pressure on the Gulf economies, the Arab monarchs may attempt to force Trump to end the war through backchannels.

Lastly, with much of the leadership who could strong-arm and command the IRGC, the hardline remnants could utilize the rigid terrain to hold out akin to past protracted conflicts against the Viet Minh, Vietcong, Taliban, and al-Qaeda, which could be detrimental to the U.S. and global economy.

Tehran and Washington Race Against Time

The United States and Israel will need a decisive and quick end to the Islamic Republic within the next few weeks, or both countries face pyrrhic choices.

After being once again caught off guard with negotiations and losing much of its leadership, Tehran’s remaining hardliners will likely never trust the word of Washington and, under international pressure, could close off their country and fortify it akin to North Korea.

If Trump withdraws prematurely without achieving any war goals, not only will his attempted strongman foreign policy be threatened but so will his relations with Middle East countries, which heavily back the U.S. President.

In prior regional quagmires initiated by Republican Presidents, the party ultimately suffered from blowback due to public outrage (The Atlantic, 2015).

If the war continues to damage the global economy and exacerbates an energy crisis, the Republican Party and future 2028 hopefuls such as JD Vance and Marco Rubio could also suffer campaign blowbacks as John McCain did for his support of the Iraq War (Financial Times, 2024).

The ongoing American-Iranian war is now a race against time, as the failure to calculate a broader range of critical energy assets, maritime shipping lanes, and the will of the hardliners to keep fighting was underestimated by war planners in the United States and Israel. Now facing a protracted conflict with little allied support, potential American domestic pushback, and repercussions for the global economy, the United States may find itself in another perpetual conflict in the Middle East with Iran.

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