Trump and Putin: A Potential Fourth U.S.-Russia Reset

Assessing the shift in U.S.-Russia relations and the potential for a fourth reset.

In 2009, during the U.S.-Russia conference in Geneva, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton presented a symbolic “reset button” to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. However, the button mistakenly featured the word peregruzka, which means “overload,” instead of perezagruzka, the correct translation of “reset.” Additionally, the word was written in the Latin alphabet rather than Cyrillic. This diplomatic misstep reflected a broader issue: a lack of attention to detail in U.S. foreign policy, which many attribute to the failure of the third reset.

Now, as President Donald Trump embarks on his second term, his approach to the war in Ukraine has sent shockwaves across Europe. His actions, including suspending military aid and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and vetoing a U.N. resolution condemning Russia and supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity (BBC News), represent a stark departure from the firm U.S. support for Ukraine that has defined the conflict since 2022. While this shift threatens U.S.-European relations, it may also signal the emergence of a fourth U.S.-Russia reset.

Lessons From Past Resets

Analyzing the failures of the previous three resets provides insight into how current U.S.-Russia relations differ from past attempts.

The first reset occurred under President Bill Clinton and Russian President Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s, with Russia’s attempt at democratisation and pro-Western foreign policy. It ultimately collapsed due to Russia’s economic and social turmoil following the Soviet Union’s dissolution. The ensuing instability fueled anti-Western sentiment and led Russia to abandon its efforts to integrate with the West. (Tsygankov, 2009)

The second reset followed the Sept. 11 attacks, as the U.S. and Russia found common ground in counterterrorism efforts and fear of a radical Islamic regime in Afghanistan. However, NATO expansion remained a critical source of tension. The George W. Bush administration’s continued push for NATO enlargement and its illegal invasion of Iraq reinforced Moscow’s perception that the U.S. was pursuing global hegemony rather than a genuine security partnership.

The third reset, initiated under President Barack Obama in 2009, was arguably the most successful. It resulted in significant arms control agreements and facilitated Russia’s entry into the World Trade Organization. However, the relationship soured in 2011 when the U.S. intervened in Libya, contradicting previous assurances that it would not pursue regime change. This fuelled Russian mistrust, prompting Moscow and Beijing to veto future U.N. Security Council actions. Relations further deteriorated as the U.S. publicly condemned President Vladimir Putin’s government over election fraud, with then-Secretary Clinton directly criticizing his administration. Ultimately, this reset failed due to fundamental ideological differences regarding democracy and human rights.

A New Era of U.S.-Russia Relations?

The first month of Trump’s second term has already marked a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump has referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a dictator but refused to apply the same label to Putin (BBC News). He has suggested that Ukraine may not regain all annexed territories and refused to vote for a U.N. resolution supporting Ukraine’s sovereign integrity (BBC News). His rhetoric evokes comparisons to British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement strategy before World War II, raising concerns that Ukraine could suffer a fate similar to Czechoslovakia. (The Spectator)

Furthermore, Trump has explicitly ruled out Ukraine’s NATO membership, a key Kremlin demand, while attributing responsibility for the war to Ukraine. This represents a complete reversal from the Biden administration’s position and that of European allies, who continue to identify Russia as the aggressor, as reiterated by French President Emmanuel Macron on his X account after his recent visit to Washington.

Unlike previous U.S.-Russia resets, the current administration appears to face none of the historical obstacles that led to past failures. Trump and his secretary of defence, Pete Hegseth, have been outspoken in their opposition to Ukraine’s NATO accession (Associated Press), and Elon Musk has publicly suggested withdrawing the U.S. from NATO on his X account (The Independent). Trump’s worldview aligns more closely with Putin’s than any of his predecessors; both leaders have expressed expansionist ambitions, with Trump making statements about acquiring Greenland and incorporating Canada as the “51st state,” while Putin seeks to reclaim Ukraine and possibly exert influence over the Baltic states (Associated Press).

Trump’s rhetoric and policy decisions suggest that his administration no longer prioritises the traditional tenets of U.S. foreign policy: moral leadership and adherence to sovereign territories. This shift marks the end of the post-World War II international order that has defined U.S. global influence for the past 80 years.

This dramatic realignment—abandoning long-standing Western alliances in favor of a more conciliatory stance toward Russia—suggests that conditions for a fourth U.S.-Russia reset may be emerging. The geopolitical consequences of such a reset remain to be seen.

References:

Associated Press. “Trump says he is serious about Canada becoming 51st state in Super Bowl interview.” Feb. 2025. https://apnews.com/article/canada-gulf-america-super-bowl-bret-baier-musk-7e1959c7d430899b01629c800db6f17b.

Associated Press. “Pete Hegseth Calls NATO Membership for Ukraine Unrealistic.” Feb. 2025. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeprfKJUIGE.

BBC News. “Trump calls Zelensky a ‘dictator’ as he hits back at ‘disinformation’ criticism.” Feb. 2025. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c62e2158mkpt.

BBC News. “US sides with Russia in UN resolutions on Ukraine.” Feb. 2025. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7435pnle0go

Macron, Emmanuel (@EmmanuelMacron). Twitter, 25 Feb. 2025, https://x.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1895574635439407236.

The Independent. “US Senator Joins Elon Musk in Calling for Withdrawal from NATO.” March 2025. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/elon-musk-nato-donald-trump-b2707635.html.

The Spectator. “Donald Trump Is Making the Same Mistake as Neville Chamberlain.” Feb. 2025. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/donald-trump-is-making-the-same-mistake-as-neville-chamberlain/.

Tsygankov, Andrei. Russophobia: Anti-Russian Lobby and American Foreign Policy. 2009