Zimbabwe: Political Entrenchment and the Instability of Economic Recovery

Political instability continues to undermine Zimbabwe’s economic recovery.

For the longest of times, Zimbabwe has been known as a country that is synonymous with instability. From sanctions by the West resulting in economic instability to political repression by the ruling party, the potential for prosperity has been tainted greatly within the Zimbabwean borders. With the way the world has been rapidly growing, one would expect a country rich in platinum and high-grade chromium to be one of the most economically and technologically advanced countries on the globe. Corruption, a decline in voter confidence and the negative perceptions of government responsiveness have facilitated the debilitating conditions that we see today in Zimbabwe.

Political Tensions

Even after the ousting of former President Robert Mugabe, the country still finds itself in the same position as before, even under the current leadership of President Emmerson Mnangagwa.

President Mnangagwa came to power in 2017 after former President Robert Mugabe was removed from office following a military coup in the country. Instead of introducing reforms aimed at benefiting the people, the current administration seems to be walking in the same footsteps as its predecessor. Zimbabwe’s lower house of Parliament has passed a bill to extend presidential terms, which would allow President Emmerson Mnangagwa to remain in power until 2030 (Reuters, 2026). Such a constitutional change raises the risk of reduced electoral accountability, while further strengthening the idea of continued institutional weakening. Moreover, with public confidence already thinning, such a change may be viewed as a final nail in the coffin by the public and foreign investors.

In addition, public frustration over the constitutional change is fueled by how future presidential elections may supposedly be held. The constitutional amendment also changes how future presidents are chosen, replacing a direct presidential election by voters with a system in which the president would be elected by Parliament (Mutasa, 2026). This would not only allow those loyal to the ZANU-PF to have more access to opportunities as opposed to the public but also further consolidate the party’s influence over the present political system and future elections.

Potential of an Economic Boom?

Despite current political constraints within the country, economic reforms have been put in place to help the economy recover under the leadership of President Mnangagwa. After years of runaway inflation and monetary instability, Zimbabwe is showing signs of macroeconomic recovery (Hiney, 2026). This comes as the country has voiced its ambitions of not just being a supplier of raw materials while securing little profit, but a country that could refine and manufacture the raw materials to generate more domestic profit. The government has restricted the exports of unprocessed strategic minerals, including lithium, as part of a broader drive to increase domestic beneficiation (Denhere, 2026). Although mining and beneficiation may drive economic growth, a lack of limitations on extensive government intervention and changes in export policy may result in potential tensions between government and foreign mining companies over mining investment and export restrictions.

Not only is Zimbabwe looking to capitalize on its mining industry, but a shift from the use of the US dollar to a more Zimbabwean-aligned currency has been paramount in the aim to strengthen the economy. For months, the Zimbabwean government has been beating the drum of “de-dollarisation”, urging citizens to embrace the ZiG “Zimbabwe Gold”, the nation’s latest attempt at a stable, gold-backed currency (Bhebhe, 2026). Be that as it may, the Zimbabwean public have not gained an ounce of confidence in the government, but instead continue to maintain a high level of contempt towards those in government.

Moreover, the presence of the US dollar is still large within the Zimbabwean economy, with the South African rand also remaining greatly dominant in transactional use in the southern regions of the country. Public confidence in the new ZiG, introduced in April 2024, remains low due to past economic instability and currency failures (Mambande, 2026). This draws greater focus on how the change in leadership has not directly resulted in any changes regarding the confidence the people have in those that govern the country.

Public and Investor Confidence in the ZiG

Such a lack of confidence in the leadership and proposed change of currency creates increasing uncertainty with the currency and government policies, as it shows how greatly undermined the investment environment is in Zimbabwe. For investors, as much as the ZiG may be convenient for short-term use in the financial markets, most have been reluctant to utilize the currency in the long term. This shows the sobering reality of the high skepticism present when it comes to the strength of the ZiG.

The actions of those within government have further deteriorated confidence in the government and the ZiG. Finance Secretary George Guvamatanga, once a vocal proponent of a swift transition to a mono-currency, recently stunned observers by announcing that the government will not rush to phase out the US dollar (Bhebhe, 2026). The stark reality is that the officials are aware of the volatility of the proposed currency, which creates a feeling of uncertainty amongst the greater public.

Political Risk Outlook

In the short to medium term, continued political uncertainty runs the risk of institutional deterioration through the weakening of electoral accountability and an even weaker economy. Such uncertainty also has the capability to discourage long-term foreign investment as the country faces continued political entrenchment, while the introduction of an experimental currency will likely be costly in the long term.

Lastly, constitutional amendments directly influence protest activity, while simultaneously creating tension within the ZANU-PF succession dynamics. Such tension reduces public confidence in the current administration and is likely to act as a catalyst for opposition mobilization in hopes of gaining the trust of the public while denouncing the current leadership.

Bibliography

Bhebhe, N. (2026) ‘ZiG ngarimbomira’: Why government has made a shocking U-turn on plot to ban US Dollar as Zimbabwe’s legal tender, My Zimbabwe. Available at: https://www.myzimbabwe.co.zw/news/189245-zig-ngarimbomira-why-government-has-made-a-shocking-u-turn-on-plot-to-ban-us-dollar-aszimbabwes-legal-tender.html (Accessed: 14 August 2026).

Denhere, E. (2026) Can Zimbabwe’s mineral ambition benefit smaller producers?, Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/26/can-zimbabwes-mineral-ambitions-benefit-smaller-producers (Accessed: 29 July 2026).

Hiney, F. (2026) Is Zimbabwe’s Economy Finally Turning A Corner? Experts Weigh In., Forbes Africa. Available at: https://www.forbesafrica.com/current-affairs/2026/07/01/is-zimbabwes-economy-finally-turning-a-corner-experts-weigh-in (Accessed: 04 August 2026).

Mambande, N. (2026) Skepticism Runs Deep: Can ZiG win Back Zim’s Trust?, ETimes. Available at: https://etimes.co.zw/skepticism-runs-deep-can-zig-win-back-zims-trust/ (Accessed: 04 August 2026).

Mutasa, H. (2026) A quiet day in Harare after Zimbabwe’s shutdown call, Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/2/a-quiet-day-in-harare-after-zimbabwes-shutdown-call (Accessed: 07 August 2026).

Reuters (2026) Zimbabwe lawmakers back bill to extend president’s term in office, Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/zimbabwe-lawmakers-back-bill-to-extend-presidents-term-in-office (Accessed: 03 August 2026).