Will the U.S.-China Relationship Improve Anytime Soon?

Over recent weeks, relations between the United States and China have sunk to their lowest level in decades, setting up a new chapter in the relationship between Washington and Beijing defined by increasing competition and aggression.

The United States under President Donald Trump has been driving this latest cycle in confrontation. On July 31, Trump threatened to ban the video-sharing platform TikTok from operating in the United States due to its ties to China. This came after the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Chinese officials over the internment of Muslims; ordered the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas; revoked the special status of Hong Kong in trade relations, and declared that China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea were illegal.

While some of these decisions have been in response to China’s actions, analysts and officials in Beijing have largely dismissed Trump’s latest moves as campaign politics. With the November presidential election approaching and Trump trailing behind Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the polls, the Trump Administration has intensified its attacks on China to score points in an uphill re-election battle.

But the emerging conflict between the United States and China also appears to go beyond the 2020 election. Recent confrontations between Washington and Beijing could signal a broader shift in the U.S. approach to China that could guide American policy for the foreseeable future.

Trump’s Changing Strategy

From the start of the Trump presidency in 2017, there have been hardliners within the administration pressing for tougher action against Beijing. To an extent, U.S. policy has reflected this. For two years, Trump has been locked into a bitter trade war with China and has consistently accused Beijing of unfair trading practices and intellectual property theft.

Until recently, though, U.S.-China relations under Trump have not been purely confrontational. The president has often vacillated between the recommendations of his more hawkish advisers and his own desire to sign a trade agreement and develop friendly relations with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Trump’s clashes with the Chinese have also typically been contained in financial and economic matters, with U.S businesses often playing an important role in preventing tensions with China from boiling over.

That appears to be changing. The U.S. business community no longer has the sort of influence it once had in getting Washington and Beijing to stand down. The Trump White House has become less responsive to corporate lobbying for China. U.S. Attorney General William Barr recently warned companies that advocating for China could mandate them to register as foreign agents. In addition, a growing number of U.S. companies have started complaining that China is stealing their technology.

Moreover, recent developments could indicate that more hawkish voices in Washington have gained greater policy influence. Officials who have long argued that the U.S. approach to China should be based on antagonism and coercion seem emboldened in their efforts to fundamentally reshape U.S.-China relations.

In a July 20 speech, Secretary Pompeo argued the relationship between Washington and Beijing should be based on the principle of “distrust and verify,” insinuating that President Richard Nixon’s diplomatic opening to China in 1972 had actually undermined American interests.

“We must admit a hard truth that should guide us in the years and decades to come: that if we want to have a free 21st century and not the Chinese century of which Xi Jinping dreams, the old paradigm of blind engagement with China simply won’t get it done,” Pompeo said. “We must not continue it and we must not return to it.”

Beyond Trump

It is not just the Trump Administration that is getting tougher on China. A growing number of Americans now view Beijing with skepticism. A recent poll by Pew Research Center showed that 73 % of Americans see China negatively, the highest level in the 15 years that Pew has measured Americans’ attitudes toward China. The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated this. Around three-quarters of Americans place a great or a fair amount of blame for the global spread of Covid-19 on China’s initial handling of the outbreak in the city of Wuhan.

Within Washington, as well, there is strong bipartisan support for a tough stance on China. For example, the Senate unanimously passed legislation in May that could block Chinese companies from listing their shares on U.S. exchanges unless they comply with U.S. audit requirements.

What if Biden Wins?

So, even if Trump loses the election to Biden in November, it seems unlikely that confrontation between the United States and China will suddenly disappear. Biden has long championed the U.S. engagement policy with China that, until Trump, had largely guided Washington’s approach to Beijing since Nixon normalized relations almost 50 years ago. But the former Vice President’s position has shifted dramatically over the past year. Biden has taken a far tougher stance on Beijing’s violation of human rights and is now even accusing Trump of being too soft on China.

This does not mean a Biden Administration would not rethink U.S. strategy. While the Biden camp agrees with Trump that Washington must stand up to Beijing, they argue the current administration has weakened America’s international standing and allowed China to expand its global influence.

In particular, Biden has said he would alter U.S. policy in three fundamental ways. Firstly, in contrast to the more unilateral approach taken by Trump, the former Vice President has said he would work more with allies to press China to change its behavior. Second, he would put more pressure on China for its human-rights abuses. Third, he would invest more resources to modernize American infrastructure and make the United States more competitive in areas like 5G. These changes, though, would not necessarily look to de-escalate U.S. competition with China—they would simply rethink how to approach it.

China, meanwhile, has shown little appetite for softening its own approach and making concessions. In recent months, Beijing has tightened its grip on Hong Kong, cracked down on human rights in Xinjiang, and showed a consistent determination to replace the United States as the dominant power in Asia.

Conclusion

So, while the result of the 2020 U.S. presidential election remains uncertain, what is clear is that the U.S.-China relationship of old has ended. Regardless of who wins in November, the United States and China seem poised to enter a new period of confrontation and competition that has no end in sight.

References

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