Will China Become Carbon-Neutral by 2060?

This month brings big news for the environmental world: China expressed its determination to be carbon-neutral before 2060. The speech was delivered by Chinese President Xi during the UN virtual General Assembly on September 22nd. As China accounts for about 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions, it will move the global warming trajectory down by 0.2 to 0.3 degree Celsius if China follow through on its promise. Such a move is therefore significant for combatting global climate change and redefining China’s role in the global economy. But will this pledge only exist in words or will it be put into practice? To answer this question, the underlying incentives of such an announcement and challenges surrounding it must be examined.

1. Political Pressures: both international and from home.

China has been experiencing increasing strained relations with the rest of the world. Before the pandemic, issues with Taiwan and Hong Kong; territory disputes in the South China Sea with its Asian neighbor; and its Belt and Road Initiatives have been the center of criticism from western countries. During the COVID crisis, anger was stoked by China’s handling of the pandemic. Recently, clashes happened between China and India along their Himalayan border. And on top of that, there is the continuing trade war between China and the US. For China to play its role as a world power successfully, it must deescalate these tensions and find common ground with the other countries, especially developed ones. Climate change becomes the best candidate. Especially during the time when the US denies climate change and threatens to withdraw from the UN, China’s pledge will be a strategic move towards improving the China-EU relationship and may help establish China’s leadership in the post-COVID world.

Domestically, low air quality has been on people’s radar. Concerns and anger over air pollution culminated back in 2013, when pollution reached levels unimaginably high, hitting its worst in more than half a century. In the following years, China waged its “war on pollution” and imposed stringent clean air measures between 2013-2017. Concerns over the environment rose again this year when the summer floods wrecked the southern part of China, resulting in the worst flooding since 1998. Under pressures from home, it is imperative for political officials to stand up, settle the problem and stabilize the country.

If the pressures had only come from the outside, it is possible that the carbon-neutral announcement will become merely political rhetoric. However, these internal pressures could serve as the decisive force pushing China to take real steps.

2. Economic recovery: a dilemma

Data Source: McKinsey

However, to combat climate change is not easy. After all, building economic and environmental resilience needs financial backing. Renewable projects need to compete with fossil fuels for investment. Given that low oil prices may remain low for quite a while, the competitiveness of renewables would be challenged. And because of the intermittency problem of renewables, the fossil fuels sector is still responsible for providing base load capacity and remains crucial to energy security, especially coal in the case of China. What’s worse, because of the pandemic, rescuing viable business and putting stringent emission standards are not easily compatible and would be a tough job for the government.

Nevertheless, it is not impossible to achieve a carbon-neutral 2026. China has the potential. It has the expertise in clean energy technologies, and it is now the world’s largest manufacturer of electric vehicles. China has also gained experience in dealing with air pollution, and reforestation.

Data Source: Statista

Overall, the probability of China to achieve its 2060 goal is high, but we must also note that carbon-neutral does not mean climate neutral, which is a tougher goal set by EU and UK. There are still some non-carbon emissions to deal with. However, CO2 accounts for more than 60% of total emissions, and China has taken a big step towards battling against climate change as a developing country. The significance of this pledge could even go beyond China’s own boundary. As one of the world’s largest economies, China’s decision will give new momentum to clean energy and technology investments and will set an example for other developing countries. China’s ambition could also turn its BRI projects greener and help export its technical now-how. Although more details of how China will achieve this goal is still to be seen, the world now could expect a carbon-neutral China in the future.

References:

Statista. 2020. China: Annual PM2.5 Levels Beijing 2019 | Statista. [online] Available at: <https://www.statista.com/statistics/690823/china-annual-pm25-particle-levels-beijing/> [Accessed 30 September 2020].

Statista. 2020. Clean Energy Investment Worldwide By Major Country 2019 | Statista. [online] Available at: <https://www.statista.com/statistics/799098/global-clean-energy-investment-by-country/> [Accessed 30 September 2020].

Wong, H., 2020. 2013 Will Be Remembered As The Year That Deadly, Suffocating Smog Consumed China. [online] Quartz. Available at: <https://qz.com/159105/2013-will-be-remembered-as-the-year-that-deadly-suffocating-smog-consumed-china/> [Accessed 30 September 2020].

Nytimes.com. 2020. China’s Pledge To Be Carbon Neutral By 2060: What It Means. [online] Available at: <https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/world/asia/china-climate-change.html> [Accessed 30 September 2020].

Timsit, A., 2020. China Has Big Climate Plans But The EU Isn’T Impressed. [online] Quartz. Available at: <https://qz.com/1908517/behind-the-tepid-eu-reaction-to-chinas-carbon-neutrality-pledge/> [Accessed 30 September 2020].

OECD. 2020. COVID-19 And The Low-Carbon Transition: Impacts And Possible Policy Responses. [online] Available at: <http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/covid-19-and-the-low-carbon-transition-impacts-and-possible-policy-responses-749738fc/> [Accessed 30 September 2020].

McKinsey&Company.2020. Leading the battle against climate change: Actions for China. Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/leading-the-battle-against-climate-change-actions-for-china

Gerretsen, I., 2020. 5 Burning Questions About China’s Carbon Neutrality Pledge. [online] Climate Home News. Available at: <https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/09/23/5-burning-questions-chinas-carbon-neutrality-pledge/> [Accessed 30 September 2020].