Tunisia: 10 years Since the Jasmine Revolution
10 years have passed since monumental events challenged the political status quo in the Middle East and North Africa. These events are best known as the “Arab Spring”. Between December 2010 and January 2011 Tunisia became the first Arab country to experience mass demonstrations after the self-immolation of a young street vendor, whose goods were violently seized by the police. The riots that sparked after effectively ousted the military regime and managed to give birth to a new democratic state. Consequently, many other countries in North Africa and Middle East underwent similar processes in the subsequent months, though with differing outcomes.
In comparison, the majority of states in this region have failed in the efforts to change their political systems. These systems have remained in the hands of military establishments or the national have collapsed into civil war.
A decade after these events, Tunisia is the only country where the revolutionary process has achieved its initial goals. Nevertheless, the actual state of the North African country remains fragile. Unresolved socioeconomic problems, exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, still represent a menace for the young Tunisian democracy. The political process in the country is far from over. Tunisia still has to deal with inequality, a high rate of unemployment and a stagnant economy.
The Current Situation
In the ten years that have passed since the so-called Jasmine Revolution, Tunisia’s GDP growth has been constantly decreasing – from a peak annual growth of 4% in 2012 to an annual growth of 1% in 2019. The unemployment rate in these 10 years has remained unchanged overall at around 16% of the population. However, these figures rise up to 36% if we take into account just youth unemployment. The political arena has been continually struck by murders, terrorist attacks, instability at its borders and a flux of migration. All these elements combined together can effectively represent an explosive mix for the young, democratic, Tunisia.
The incapacity of the government to improve the economic conditions have triggered protests. During the 2013-2014 political crisis, thousands of people protested in Tunis, forcing the political parties to find a solution regarding the constitutional writing process. In January 2016, people gathered again in Kasserine and Tunis to protest against the high unemployment rate and austerity measures. In 2018, demonstrators took once more to the streets in January and again in November to show their dissent against the prices and tax rises. Even 2020 has seen a new round of protests, this time mostly in the South of the country, once again against the unemployment issue.
Surveys conducted by Arab Barometer show that trust towards political institutions has decreased since the revolution. Trust in the government dropped by 76% in 2011 to 36% in 2018. Similarly, trust in parliament dropped from 46% in 2013 to 26% in 2018. Political parties recorded 41% already in 2011 and dropped to 21% in 2018. Yet trust towards non-elected bodies like the army or the police has overall remained unchanged at high levels.
The Effect of Covid-19
2020 saw the entrance of the Covid-19 pandemic, which has made things more difficult for the country. The Tunisian government has been forced to ban travel, imposing complete closure both inside and at its borders. This has caused important revenue losses for the country, mostly from the tourist sector, accounting for 8 % of GDP with more than 400,000 Tunisians working in the sector. This does not count informal workers, which represent around 44% of the Tunisian labor force. Exportations have also been struck by the international border closure: the main industry sectors – textile, mechanical and electrical – have seen their exportations reduced by 27% .
Until this moment, however, the Tunisian democratic system has been able to endure and survive. Both presidential and parliamentary elections have been kept regular, even if the turnout has not been always high. Until now, the military has evaded politics and remained neutral in most of the problematic situations faced.
Tunisia at a Crossroad
One of the litmus papers of the health state of the country is the migration phenomenon, which increased in the recent years. More and more people, mostly from the younger generation, have a desire to leave the country. The main reason for migrating from Tunisia is economic, while political or security reasons account only for a small percentage.
Therefore, it is clear that Tunisian government must urgently address the economic problems, particularly the unemployment issue. Though, previsions on the economy of the country states that the GDP growth will increase again in 2021 with a jump to 3.1%. Recently, the Parliament has approved the 2021 budget law and an 8-billion-dinar deficit with the aim to recover the GDP to 4%. The law is in vigour from January 1st and aims to alleviate the tax weight on the citizens.
