Trump’s Presidency and the Arctic: Shaping Geopolitics in the Far North

The Arctic region is warming as a focal point for geopolitical tensions (Averre and  Salvoni, 2025), with melting ice caps exposing vast reserves of natural resources. The  region is estimated to hold 90 billion barrels of undiscovered oil and 40 billion barrels of  undiscovered natural gas (Geological Survey, 2008). As climate change accelerates  access to these resources, competition among global superpowers has emerged. 

President Donald Trump assumed office on January 20, 2025. His 2019 proposal to purchase Greenland (Zellen, 2025) underscored an expansionist U.S. Arctic policy reminiscent of the 1867 Alaska Purchase. Trump has asserted that control over this strategically significant region is essential for national security (Averre and Salvoni, 2025).  However, this proposal generated international unease, as both Denmark and Greenland firmly rejected the idea (Mokrani, 2025), declaring that Greenland was not for sale.  Heightening tensions further, Trump refused to rule out military options to assert control over the region (Neuman, 2025), exacerbating geopolitical tensions with Russia and  China. Beyond straining relations with these global powers, his strategic shift has the potential to weaken U.S. alliances with Denmark and NATO, raising broader concerns about the stability of transatlantic partnerships. Doornbos (2025) argues that Trump’s aggressive shift in Arctic policy sends a direct and deliberate message to China.  Washington has long relied on China for rare earth minerals, which are critical components in technologies spanning mobile phones to weapons of mass destruction (Doornbos,  2025). Viewing this dependency as unsustainable, Washington has identified the Arctic as a potential alternative source for these critical materials. 

Trump’s characterisation of the Arctic as an emerging arena of great power competition has prompted Arctic defence spending in the West. In response to Trump’s intensified focus on Arctic security, Denmark has committed $2.05 billion to enhance its military capabilities in the region (Stockwell et al., 2025). This investment includes the procurement of three new Arctic naval vessels, two long-range drones for surveillance operations, and the implementation of fundamental Arctic military training programs.  Denmark’s Minister of Defence has acknowledged Trump’s Arctic policy as a significant security challenge, necessitating a strengthened Danish presence in the region. 

Greenland plays a pivotal role in China’s Polar Silk Road, which seeks to expand  Beijing’s economic influence in the Arctic. Kine (2025) suggests that Trump’s push to acquire Greenland could set a precedent for expansionist behaviour among rival states,  increasing the likelihood of Chinese assertiveness towards Taiwan. Such a development could have significant global consequences, disrupting international trade and escalating tensions between major powers. 

Russia has also responded assertively to U.S. Arctic ambitions, reinforcing its strategic presence in the region. Nilsen (2024) highlights Russian actions such as planting  Soviet-era flags in Barentsburg and Pyramiden and establishing a new scientific research centre in the Arctic. A Kremlin spokesperson has stated that Moscow is closely monitoring developments in Greenland. With the longest Arctic coastline, Russia has positioned itself as a dominant actor in the region (Averre & Salvoni, 2025), boasting the world’s most advanced icebreaker fleet and controlling key shipping routes under Article 234 of  UNCLOS (Todorov, 2023). Furthermore, Russian legislation mandates that only Russian-flagged vessels can transport oil, LNG, and coal via the Northern Sea Route (Federal Law,  2017), with an additional restriction allowing only Russian-built ships to carry these materials (Kommersant, 2018). These measures demonstrate Moscow’s long-standing disregard for maintaining favourable relations with the West. Filippova (2023) argues that the deterioration of Russia-West relations has been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine,  which has driven Russia to strengthen ties with Eastern powers. 

Despite rising tensions, there have been instances of Arctic cooperation. A recent meeting between U.S. and Russian officials included discussions on potential joint energy projects in the region (Busvine, 2025), indicating that some avenues for collaboration remain open. However, given the current geopolitical climate, sustained cooperation between Russia, China, and the U.S. appears unlikely. 

In response to escalating Arctic competition, the United Kingdom has intensified its military preparedness. Murughappun and Murray (2025) report that British forces have increased Arctic training operations, such as ‘Operation Clockwork,’ which includes specialized skills such as Nordic skiing. The UK Ministry of Defence has emphasised the importance of Arctic readiness, positioning the UK as one of the few nations capable of operating effectively in the region’s challenging climate. Williams (2024) notes that these measures are intended to enhance the security of the Nordic region, further underscoring how Trump’s Arctic policy has contributed to a heightened strategic focus on the area. 

Overall, Trump’s Arctic policies have influenced global geopolitical dynamics,  prompting strategic reactions from Russia, China, and allied Western states. His refocus on the ownership of Greenland has intensified the nature of Arctic competition, reinforcing the region’s significance in the international security realm.

References 

Averre, D. and Salvoni (2025) Global War for control of the Arctic: How Russia and China  are circling North’s frozen expanses amid fears it will become world’s new battleground – as Trump eyes control of Greenland, Daily Mail Online. Available at:  

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14266411/Global-war-control-ARCTIC-Russia China-fears-Trump-Greenland.html (Accessed: 25 February 2025).  

Busvine, D. (2025) Russia and US Eye Joint Arctic Energy Projects after Saudi talks,  POLITICO. Available at: https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-us-saudi-arctic-energy-rdif ukraine-russia-capital/ (Accessed: 25 February 2025).  

Doornbos, C. (2025) Why does Donald Trump want Greenland? behind the ‘strong,  deliberate’ message to China. Available at: https://www.aol.com/why-does-donald-trump want 

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Federal Law (2017) “On amendments in the Code for merchant navigation and recognition  of expiration of some provisions of legal acts of the Russian Federation.”  

Geological Survey (2008) 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas  assessed in the Arctic, USGS. Available at: https://www.usgs.gov/media/audio/90-billion barrels-oil-and-1670-trillion-cubic-feet-natural-gas-assessed-arctic (Accessed: 25 February  2025).  

Kine, P. (2025) Why Taiwan is watching Greenland, POLITICO. Available at:  https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/china-watcher/why-taiwan-is-watching-greenland/  (Accessed: 25 February 2025). 

Kommersant. (2018) “Севморпуть в импортозамещение” [The Northern Sea Route in  import substitution]. 22 March. Available at: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3579782  (Accessed: 16 February 2025).  

Mokrani, F. (2025) Denmark rejects U.S. bid for Greenland, Euro Weekly News. Available  at: https://euroweeklynews.com/2025/01/31/denmark-stands-its-ground-greenland-is-not for-sale/ (Accessed: 25 February 2025).  

Murughappun, P. and Murray, D. (2025) Dramatic scenes show British forces preparing for  war in the Arctic, Express.co.uk. Available at:  

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/2014970/british-army-arctic-training (Accessed: 25  February 2025).  

Neuman, S. (2025) Is Trump’s rhetoric on Greenland, Canada and Panama Canal a  ‘madman strategy’?, NPR. Available at: https://www.npr.org/2025/01/11/nx-s1- 5253910/donald-trump-greenland-panama-canal-canada (Accessed: 25 February 2025).  

Nilsen, T. (2024) Moscow hoists Soviet flags at Svalbard, The Barents Observer. Available  at: https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/arctic/moscow-hoists-soviet-flags-at svalbard/119353#:~:text=Moscow%20hoists%20Soviet%20flags%20at,flag%20of%20the %20Soviet%20Union. (Accessed: 25 February 2025).  

Stockwell, B., Frater, J. and Brennan, E. (2025) Denmark boosts Arctic defense spending  by $2 billion after Trump’s Greenland interest, CNN. Available at:  

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/27/europe/denmark-greenland-trump-defense-latam intl/index.html (Accessed: 25 February 2025). 

Todorov, A. (2023) New Russian law on Northern Sea Route navigation: Gathering arctic  storm or Tempest in a Teapot?, The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.  Available at: https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/new-russian-law-northern-sea-route navigation-gathering-arctic-storm-or-tempest-teapot (Accessed: 25 February 2025).  

Williams , B. (2024) Operation clockwork: Merlins, Wildcats and Apaches navigate ‘hardest  environment on Earth’, Forces News. Available at: 

https://www.forcesnews.com/technology/aircraft/operation-clockwork-merlins-wildcats-and apaches-navigate-hardest-environment (Accessed: 25 February 2025).  

Zellen, B.S. (2025) Greenland during trump 2.0: Is America poised for an historic Arctic  territorial expansion?, The Arctic Institute – Center for Circumpolar Security Studies.  Available at: https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/greenland-during-trump-2-0-america-poised historic-arctic-territorial-expansion/ (Accessed: 25 February 2025).