The Vaccine Diplomacy Dilemma: A Double-Edged Sword? 

There is never a shortage of competition in the arena of international affairs; the COVID-19 pandemic is no exception. As soon as the novel coronavirus began to spread globally, heads of state began to ponder the timeline for an effective rollout of a vaccine to aid their respective populations and the rest of the world, return to a pre-pandemic society. By securing vaccines for their populations, countries such as the United States, China, India, Brazil, Russia, and the United Kingdom have been more fortunate than others. 

While wealthy countries build vaccine stockpiles, less affluent countries are in direct competition to acquire their own. This trend has created an interesting dynamic in the international arena, as China and Russia attempt to show the world that they can be relied upon as an alternative from the United States and other Western countries that have historically led the existing international order. As a result, a dilemma has surfaced in the West as these non-Western countries increase their global vaccination campaigns. While one should view any progress towards global vaccination as an international success, it is essential to address the consequences of certain countries showcasing their ability to lead amid a worldwide pandemic.

China

China seeks to revise its international image from the country where Covid-19 originated to the supplier of its cure. Their global vaccine rollout has focused on Southeast Asia and Africa, with Cambodia, Pakistan, Nepal, Laos, Myanmar, Iran, Algeria, and Sierra Leone being key beneficiaries. China has also sold the COVID-19 vaccine to countries in other regions, such as Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico, Chile, Ukraine, and Serbia. 

While the Chinese government is hesitant to frame this distribution effort as vaccine diplomacy, it is hard to ignore underlying geopolitical motives. The lower- and middle-income recipients of China’s medical goodwill serve as a stage for China to showcase their technology, organization, and global leadership abilities. Interestingly, these countries are central to the Belt and Road Initiative, a project that commentators have associated with China’s geopolitical motives. Despite reluctance to claim vaccine diplomacy, the supply of Chinese vaccines has increased its soft power and strengthened its relationships with the Belt and Road Initiative countries.

Russia

Russia is looking to showcase their role as an effective alternative from the Western-led international order by taking full advantage of vaccine diplomacy. At the time of writing, Russia has donated COVID-19 vaccines to Kyrgyzstan and Palestine, while its list of buyers is longer. The countries that have purchased the vaccine from Russia tend to be in Russia’s ‘near abroad’ and South America. These countries include Argentina, Uzbekistan, Slovakia, Venezuela, and Serbia. 

Russia was the first country to authorize a COVID-19 vaccine with its public release of the Sputnik V in August 2020. This vaccine was initially greeted with scepticism due to insufficient testing; however, demand for the vaccine has grown over time. Sputnik V can revitalize Russia’s image in science and technology as the demand for a vaccine by low-income countries increases.

United States 

The United States experienced a late start in its campaign of vaccine diplomacy. After enduring a tense presidential transition with the outgoing Trump administration questioning the importance of the United States’ role in the world as a global leader, the incumbent Biden administration is attempting to revitalize its image abroad. At the time of writing, the United States has only donated COVID-19 vaccines to Mexico and Canada. This relatively late start has done no favors for the Biden administration as they attempt to deal with domestic political tensions and also seek to restore faith in the United States internationally. 

There has been some progress following the first-ever Quad leaders’ summit on March 12, 2021. The Quad consists of India, Japan, Australia, and the United States. They have reached an agreement to work collectively to expand global vaccinations with an optimistic one-billion doses promised by 2022. This deal primarily consists of funding from the United States and Japan, with India producing the actual doses and Australia leading the distribution throughout Southeast Asia.

Discussion

While it is crucial to work towards a global vaccination campaign, one must look at it through the lens of international competition. This lens will provide the viewer with an objective outlook on the intentions of various international actors. International competition forces countries to think strategically, which can have adverse effects. These negative effects can materialize as disinformation easily and quickly propagated through the internet, such as Facebook, Twitter, and other social networking platforms. Recently, U.S. officials have announced that Russian intelligence agencies have sought to inject disinformation that undermines the confidence in Western vaccines through online publications. 

The United States and other Western countries are in a disadvantaged position internationally. China and Russia have been leading in vaccine diplomacy, with the West nowhere to be found. An explanation for this trend is that autocratic countries such as China and Russia do not need to explain to their constituents why they are sending doses abroad. Simultaneously, many Western democracies must provide a convincing argument to their constituents on the importance of a global vaccination effort or face the political consequences. The early stages of vaccine diplomacy have indicated to the world that autocratic countries have few political pressures preventing them from swiftly acting when there are domestic issues at home.

In contrast, the United States has been largely absent from the world stage as domestic matters have taken precedence. This is not to say that domestic issues are unimportant, yet autocratic countries can move decisively to accomplish diplomatic goals. The trend has indicated that when countries are desperate for vaccines, they are less inclined to be patient for democracies to act and will accept them from whoever is the first to offer.      

References

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