The Need for Greater Civil Defense in the Indo-Pacific

How the 2026 Iran War should prompt the protection of citizen life and critical infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific.

The ongoing 2026 Iran war is the highest level of regional conflict since Operation Desert Storm with over a dozen countries targeted by either Iranian drones or missile barrages. Amid intense missile defense interceptions by America, Israel, and the Gulf states come valuable lessons to learn by Asian Pacific countries that would face similar encounters in future wars, particularly by China.

Due to the threats of ballistic missiles, such as the vaunted Dongfeng by the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF), allies will need a heightened sense of urgency for local expansion of civil defense services, along with fortified shelters and hangars.

What the 2026 Iran War Displays Militarily

The 2026 Iran war has tested American missile systems, with heavy usage by the U.S.-made Patriots and Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) batteries throughout the Middle East. Iranian ballistic missiles caused shortages in air defense stockpiles that the U.S. and even South Korea have rushed to replenish.

Iranian forces were able to hit an undisclosed number of THAAD radar systems, valued at $300 million, which hampers response and warning times on future missile launches. U.S. Forces Korea redeployed several THAAD batteries to the Middle East because of the urgent need for missile defense.

A key wakeup call has been the heavy usage of Patriot missiles, which cost upwards of $3 million per interception to take down Iran’s cost-effective drones. According to the Atlantic Council, the interception of Iranian ballistic missiles will deploy 29% to 43% of THAAD batteries.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has dispatched 200 military specialists to the Gulf states whose expertise is countering and downing drones in a cost-effective manner. With Iranian drone technology in the hands of Russia, which deploys its own Geran variant near-daily, Ukrainian specialists are also teaching America and its partners effective countermeasures.

Iranian missile barrages are bringing valuable combat data to other regions, such as the Indo-Pacific, which needs to prepare for a wartime scenario where China targets countries that host American bases in the region. Countries such as Japan, Taiwan, Guam, South Korea, and the Philippines could very much feel the same retaliation akin to Iran’s attacks against the Gulf states.

China’s Dongfeng Missiles are More Capable than Iran’s

China’s People’s Liberation Army has its own compartment, the Rocket Force (PLARF), that focuses solely on the growth of its various ballistic missiles. In contrast with Iranian ballistic missiles, the Dongfeng (DF) series is far more capable and deadly for several reasons.

First, in order to bypass American missile defenses such as the DF-17 variant, the Dongfeng missiles upgraded to have hypersonic acceleration. Whereas the U.S. has a good interception rate against Iran’s Fattah missiles, the DF-17 series could potentially evade interceptions and inflict critical damage upon missile defense systems or regional military bases.

Secondly, the PLARF have missile capabilities to strike naval targets with their mobile launchers by utilizing the DF-21 and 26 series. Iran’s ballistic missiles have failed to come within the immediate vicinity of U.S. naval forces. Still, the DF-21 and 26 are destined to strike and incapacitate carriers—particularly Carrier Strike Groups and the U.S. Seventh Fleet.

Third, the Dongfeng missiles are more advanced and have intercontinental capabilities that could reach most of the world, whereas Iran’s are mostly regional. The DF-41 is an intercontinental missile with a range of over 12,000 kilometers that aims against America’s unsinkable aircraft carrier in Guam. It is nuclear-capable; thus the need for urgent priority to intercept the DF-41 missiles.

Lastly, China is capable of fielding a major inventory of ballistic missiles in various ranges that could overwhelm American and allied air defenses if fired at a pace of 500 to 1,000 per day. The PLARF currently has several hundred short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), 500 intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs), 1300 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), and 400 to 550 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

During a wartime scenario, China could potentially produce several hundred missile variants per day due to production lines that have increased output more than America’s. Furthermore, the PLARF fields over 850 launchers for various types of missiles, which are also a threat throughout the region.

Contingencies for Readiness

Due to the threat of China’s ballistic missiles, the United States is financing billions in upgraded air defenses in the Indo-Pacific, such as the Enhanced Integrated Air and Missile Defence System (EIAMD) in Guam, which functions as a major multi-layered interception system to protect U.S. troops and assets. Upgrading production, the United States, together with Japan, is ramping up production on the SM-3 IIA ballistic missile interceptor, which is the most sophisticated that Washington and Tokyo have in theatre.

Still, akin to the 2026 Iran war, there is a heightened need to prepare for contingencies if the Dongfeng missiles bypass air defenses. Because of this scenario, there will need to be an emphasis on civil services and additional civilian shelters.

Regarding civil services, hardened shelters for civilians will be of emphasis as a contingency for a potential war against China. As seen with Israeli emergency services, hardened bomb shelters help save lives against looming missile threats.

Asian Allies Prepping for Civil Services

Japan conducted site surveys to 1,500 additional facilities for shelters against missile barrages, especially as relations with China have deteriorated over Taiwan. The 1,500 new shelters will join Japan’s existing 61,142 as Tokyo continues to militarize and plan contingencies in the event Beijing or Pyongyang directly threatens its national security.

In March 2025, Japan unveiled plans to evacuate 110,000 citizens and tourists from the Sakishima island chain within the vicinity of Taiwan, such as Okinawa, which has become a U.S. military fortress. Okinawa hosts the majority of U.S. troops in Japan, and in a Taiwan contingency, Dongfeng missiles will frequently target the island.

Taiwan currently has thousands of shelters—4,600 of which are located in the capital of Taipei, which can protect upwards of 12 million people. Furthermore, Taiwan has thousands of other undisclosed shelters in the more mountainous countryside, which provide Taiwanese citizens and their armed forces asymmetrical advantages due to fortified mountains which are nearly impassible.

Lastly, along with their 19,000 shelters, South Korea has begun the creation of its first nuclear bomb proof bunker. Seoul’s nationwide bunkers are primarily to prepare for missile barrages from Pyongyang, which have the capabilities to inflict hundreds of thousands of casualties within the first several days of full-scale war.

While South Korea is prioritizing a potential attack from the North, Seoul will also need to factor in missiles launched from the PLARF. South Korea has walked a tightrope, not to draw the ire of China, by broader American security policies in the Indo-Pacific.

Nevertheless, with a THAAD missile defense system placed in South Korea along with the Pentagon asking U.S. Forces Korea to play a broader role in a Taiwan contingency, Seoul will need to prepare for more civil services if targeted by Chinese ballistic missiles—particularly around American military installations.

Policy Recommendations

Overall, the United States should not only fund broader missile defense in the Indo-Pacific but also work with partnered countries on civil defense services, as there is no guarantee of interception of all China’s Dongfeng missiles.

Civilians will not only need expanded hardened missile shelters, but also evacuation planning around critical military installations and command and control locations, such as Okinawa and Guam. Along with war planning, military exercises can also focus on civil defense drills and missile defense along sensitive locations such as power plants and energy infrastructure.

Lessons from the 2026 Iran war will be valuable amid contingency planning in the Indo-Pacific. With China’s Dongfeng missiles and launchers being more capable than Iran’s, the U.S. and its regional allies will need to realize that the DF’s will be harder to intercept. The protection of civilian lives and critical infrastructure will need to become a top priority.