The 2026 Iran War Shows the Urgent Need for U.S. Enhanced Missile Defense Upgrades

It is more imperative than ever before that the United States immediately allocates funds and resources to restock missile defence interceptors and create more systems for layered defences. With China and North Korea rapidly expanding their ballistic missile capabilities and the U.S. expending large quantities of their interceptors in the Middle East, major gaps in layered defences in the Indo-Pacific could become detrimental to the U.S. homeland and its regional allies in a wartime contingency.

Amid the onset of a new war in the Middle East, U.S. forces have stretched themselves thin as not only the Navy, but valuable air defense assets as well, have been redeployed from Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) to Central Command’s (CENTCOM) area of responsibility. U.S. forces in CENTCOM have expanded a wide arsenal of air defense interceptors that have been drawn away from other theatres such as Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific.

Simultaneously, China and North Korea have expanded their ballistic missile arsenals, which already have the possibility of potentially overwhelming U.S. air defenses. With depleted U.S. stockpiles due to repeated conflicts in the Middle East, a new focus on the rapid production of interceptors is needed going forward.

2026 U.S.-Iran War and Missile Strikes

On February 28th, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a major war against the Islamic Republic of Iran by stating their missile program was an imminent threat. Despite controlling the skies and taking out significant portions of Iran’s leadership and launchers, some missiles and drones were able to get through and hit U.S. bases.

The threat of Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ (IRGC) missiles and drones firing off mass rounds reflects what a war against China in the Indo-Pacific could look like. The Pentagon, several days prior to the shock and awe, evacuated numerous bases in several countries in the Middle East, particularly because their positions were untenable due to the vicinity of Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles.

Already expanding a quarter of their THAAD interceptors during the 12-Day War and using enormous quantities of U.S. air defense again in 2026, the U.S. could find itself in a vulnerable situation if war were to come in the Indo-Pacific against either China or North Korea. In order to prepare for a mass launch of ballistic missiles from Beijing or Pyongyang, Washington must heavily focus on replenishing air defense stockpiles and further growing interceptors and contingencies to protect U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific.

The Threat from China’s Ballistic Missiles

China’s ballistic missiles, manned by its military’s rocket force (PLARF), are amongst the deadliest of any country today. China’s medium (MRBMs), intermediate (IRMBs), and long-range missiles remain a top existential threat to U.S. forces and its allies in INDOPACOM’s area of responsibility today.

In PLARF’s inventory there are 1,300 medium and intermediate-range ballistic missiles called the Dongfeng (DF). The variants of the MRBMs include DF-2, DF-17, and DF-21, the latter having four alphabet variations (A, B, C, and D) specifically for anti-ship purposes. These missiles have a range of up to 2,500 kilometers and can be used with mobile launchers and are sometimes nuclear-tipped, which poses a danger for Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.

Four of the intermediate variants include the DF-3, DF-4, DF-25, and DF-26; each variation has a range of 1,700 to 5,500 kilometers. U.S. bases throughout Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines are within the range of the IRMBs.

The PLARF’s Dongfeng-27 is Beijing’s long-range missile that would be the rocket of choice to use against U.S. military assets in Guam. If an escalatory full-scale war broke out between the United States and China, the PLARF could utilize the DF-5 and DF-31 with a range of 11,000 kilometers, or the DF-41 with a range of 12-15,000 kilometers.

The Threat from North Korean Ballistic Missiles

Akin to China, North Korea’s ballistic missiles can reach various U.S. allies and increasingly have the capabilities to potentially target the U.S. homeland. The DPRK has its own department for ballistic missiles called the Korean People’s Army Strategic Force (KPASF).

The KPASF field the KN and Hwasal short-range ballistic missiles, which have a reach of 240-900 kilometers and 1,800-2,000 kilometers respectively. Both the KN and Hwasal could be used tactically in a war against South Korea and U.S. forces garrisoned in the country (USFK), along with Japan.

Furthermore, the KPASF’s medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), the Hwasong-7 and 9, are designed for a wider war in the Asia-Pacific. Lastly, the Hwasong-15, 17, and 20 variants are designed to attack the U.S. mainland and distant bases such as Guam and Darwin in the event of war.

The Hwasong variants have a range of upwards of 13,000 kilometers, and those long-range missiles are likely stationed along the strategic belt near the Chinese border to deter a potential U.S. or South Korean strike against the facilities.

Necessary Preparations for the U.S. and its Indo-Pacific Allies

As U.S. air defense stockpiles are being heavily expended in combat operations in Yemen and Iran, such as the PAC-3 Patriot and THAAD missiles, future Pentagon defense spending needs to prioritize not only American ship revival, but also rapid production of interceptors.

According to a February 2021 article by the Arms Control Association, the United States not only needs to outspend China on missile defense but also out-strategize Beijing’s tactics. The Stimson Centre further gave a potential solution in a December 2024 publication.

In the Stimson Centre article, the think tank explains that the U.S. and its allies should find ways to hinder PLARF’s surface-to-surface capabilities, along with developing mass drone swarms to deplete Beijing’s own stockpiles in a wartime setting.

During the past few years, the Pentagon has taken key measures in layered air defense, particularly in Guam with the EIAMD system. EIAMD – the Enhanced Integrated Air and Missile Defence System – incorporates a wide variety of interceptors to protect Guam from PLARF and KPASF missiles, as the island’s strategic assets could be the deciding factor in any major Indo-Pacific war.

The objective of EIAMD is to shield Guam in a 360-degree multi-layered environment with the Standard-3 and 6 Missile (SM-3 & 6), Aegis, THAAD, Typhon MRC, and the Enduring Shield Indirect Fire Protection System. Additionally, concrete hangers and underground storage facilities have been prepared to safeguard valuable assets.

Having already positioned the THAAD system in South Korea under Obama, the U.S. will also need to help upgrade the missile defense systems of Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines. Both Japan and the Philippines are fielding the Typhon MRC with Patriot systems, with Taiwan fielding the latter along with the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS).

Lastly, monetary allocations on shelters, concrete hangars, and fast-tracked contracts on rapid production of missile interceptors are needed with a growing defense budget. A 100% interception rate will not be guaranteed in a war against China or North Korea. As such, emergency drills of protecting assets, civilians, and troops will be needed if air defense systems are overwhelmed or expended.

It is more imperative than ever before that the United States immediately allocates funds and resources to restock missile defense interceptors and create more systems for layered defenses. With China and North Korea rapidly expanding their ballistic missile capabilities and the U.S. expending copious quantities of their interceptors in the Middle East, major gaps in layered defenses in the Indo-Pacific could become detrimental to the U.S. homeland and its regional allies in a wartime contingency.