The Looming Water Crisis in the Middle East

The Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which flow through four Middle Eastern countries (Türkiye, Syria, Iraq, and Iran), are not only the birthplace of ancient civilizations and a vital trade route, but also a source of fresh water on which the lives of more than 244 million people depend. Today, this source is under threat from both climate change and human activity, which could potentially lead to a new source of tension in an already unstable region.

As of 2025, Iraq has been experiencing its driest weather since 1933. The Ministry of Water Resources of Iraq reported that water inflows into the Tigris and Euphrates rivers amounted to only 27% of the annual average, and reservoir levels stood at just 8% of design capacity (Xinhua 2025). A similarly dire situation has unfolded in neighboring Syria, where precipitation has fallen by nearly 70%, and about 75% of rain-fed land has effectively been taken out of production (UNDRR 2025). At the same time, NASA studies show that between 2003 and 2009 the Tigris-Euphrates basin lost about 114 cubic kilometers of fresh water, with the main causes being excessive groundwater extraction and global warming, exacerbated by a five-year drought that pushed the situation into a critical phase (NASA 2013).

Although the current water crisis in the region cannot be explained by a single factor, both climate change and industrial activity in the upper reaches of the rivers have likely played a crucial role in the crisis. Rising temperatures accelerate evaporation from the surfaces of rivers and reservoirs, along with the rainy season becoming increasingly unpredictable, disrupting traditional agricultural cycles. Another factor, an industrial one, has a strong connection to the hydraulic structures built within the Türkiye’s ambitious Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), including 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric power plants, which led to the falling water discharge levels (see Fig. 1), and, therefore, strengthened Türkiye’s role as the primary regulator for the basin’s lower reaches.

Figure 1. Water discharge and consumption in the Tigris-Euphrates basin, 1995-2010 (in bln cubic meters).

Sources: Al-Ansari et al. (2018), Hussein et al. (2023), Fanack Water (2019), Fanack Water (2026).

Intensifying these environmental concerns are the political and security challenges in Iraq and Syria. The water crisis is exacerbated for both countries; decades of civil war, exhausting struggle with ISIS, sanctions and political instability have led to the deterioration of the irrigation infrastructure, while rampant corruption has worsened the crisis by producing uneven distribution of resources. The environmental toll is even worse, with falling water levels leading to rising concentrations of pollutants and salt, while some fresh water sources are simply drying up. For example, Iraq’s second-largest lake, Razzaza (Milh), has turned into a salt flat desert (CNN 2025). The public health situation is also deteriorating: outbreaks of diarrhea, cholera, and typhoid fever are occurring in regions suffering from water shortages (Iraqi National News Agency 2025).

In the given circumstances the Iraqi government signed the Framework Agreement on Water Cooperation (also known as ‘oil for water agreement’) to overcome the effects of the crisis. According to the document, Baghdad agreed to export oil produced in Kurdish-controlled areas to Türkiye in exchange for investments into Iraqi water infrastructure (Daily Sabah 2025). Although Turkish politicians state that water-related issues have never been used by Türkiye as the means of political or economic pressure (Daily Sabah 2025), this deal risks Iraq’s independence. Ankara will be able to gain control over its weaker southern neighbour, especially regarding sensitive issues such as Kurdistan-related ones, and strengthen its position in the region, marking a significant geopolitical victory for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan amid falling approval ratings from his controversial economic policies.

However, a single contract cannot solve the problem. The water crisis in the Tigris-Euphrates basin requires a long-term regional cooperation and the implementation of water-saving technologies. It is also necessary to develop mechanisms for monitoring and jointly managing water flow, including data exchange and water release coordination from reservoirs. However, any technical agreements will be useless without a fundamental overhaul of consumption patterns and, most importantly, political stabilization of a region that has been plagued by wars and political instability. Without these measures, the rivers that once nourished the world’s earliest civilizations has the potential of becoming the source of great humanitarian crises.

References

Cemil, D. İ. (2025) ‘Euphrates-Tigris water dispute: New chapter in Türkiye-Iraq relations’, Daily Sabah, December 2. Available at: https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/op-ed/euphrates-tigris-water-dispute-new-chapter-in-turkiye-iraq-relations/amp (Accessed: 9 July 2026)

Fanack Water (2019) Water Use in Syria. Available at: https://water.fanack.com/syria/water-use/ (Accessed: 15 July 2026).

Fanack Water (2019) Water Use in Iraq. Available at: https://water.fanack.com/iraq/water-use-in-iraq/ (Accessed: 15 July 2026).

Hussein et al. (2023) Hydrological characteristics of the Tigris River at the Baghdad Sarai Station. Elsevier.

Iraqi National News Agency (2025) Urgent Ministerial Meeting to Address the Water Crisis in Iraq. Available at:  https://www.ninanews.com/website/News/Details?key=1254169 (Accessed: 9 July 2026)

Mohammed, T. and Aqeel, N. (2025) ‘Grappling with its worst drought in a century, Iraq bets on a controversial oil-for-water deal’, CNN, December 21. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/21/climate/iraqs-oil-water-turkey-intl-latam (Accessed: 9 July 2026)

Nadhir Al-Ansari et al. (2018) Water Resources of the Euphrates River Catchment. Scienpress Ltd.

NASA (2013) Freshwater Stores Shrank in Tigris-Euphrates Basin. Available at: https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/freshwater-stores-shrank-in-tigris-euphrates-basin-80613/ (Accessed: 10 July 2026)

PeaceRep (2023) The Disruptive Power of Open-Source Water Data: The Case of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Available at: https://peacerep.org/2023/03/29/water-data-the-euphrates-tigris-basin/ (Accessed: 13 July 2026).

UNDRR (2025) Human-induced climate change compounded by socio-economic water stressors increased severity of 5-year drought in Iran and Euphrates and Tigris basin. Available at: https://www.preventionweb.net/news/human-induced-climate-change-compounded-socio-economic-water-stressors-increased-severity-5 (Accessed: 10 July 2026)

UNESCWA (2023) Inventory of Shared Water resources in Western Asia. Available at: https://www.unescwa.org/sites/default/files/pubs/pdf/e_escwa_sdpd_13_inventory_e.pdf (Accessed: 14 July 2026).

Xinhua (2025) Iraq warns of severe drought due to low water inflows from upstream countries. Available at: http://www.china.org.cn/world/Off_the_Wire/2025-07/25/content_117995207.shtml (Accessed: 12 July 2026).