January 21, 2025

The Gas Pipe was Migthier than the Bomb

By Mikhail Kobelyan

 The rippling effect of the European Transit System shutdown for Ukraine, Russia and the security of Europe’s future


With the European Transit System’s (ETS) last shutdown, we witness a symbolic and tangible end to current European affairs involving the countries responsible for its maintenance—namely Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe.

The ETS, by circumstantial causes, became a safety mechanism that provided security guarantees to the post-Soviet region. Through this pipeline traveled the only element keeping European interests at the negotiating table: for a recovering Russia, which recognized its vital importance in safeguarding against financial crisis; and for Europe, which saw it as a cheap and effective way to extract dividends from its defeated adversary. This underappreciated phenomenon in international politics will remain a notable mention in history books, standing as one of the key catalysts for the conflict we see unfolding today.

A conflict that will harm our way of life and disrupt the rules of the game for the region’s major players. The prescription for the future is the close monitoring of the changes in rhetoric, political goals, and rule-building that will emerge in the coming year. This year will be an eventful chapter in history—one that began not with a dramatic explosion, but with the quiet turn of a gas valve, symbolizing a shift in geopolitical power.

Volodymyr Zelensky

Shutdown of the ETS, 01/01/2025
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Does the decision ameliorate the stability of the international system as a whole or does it lead to greater instability and increased tension?
+ 3Strong increase in international stability + 2Moderate increase in international stability + 1Slight increase in international stability 0No change in international stability - 1Slight decrease in international stability - 2Moderate decrease in international stability - 3Strong decrease in international stability
-2
Is the decision durable and are there the necessary resources to maintain it over an extended period of time?
+ 3Highly sustainability + 2Moderately sustainability + 1Slightly sustainability 0Neutral - 1Slightly unsustainability - 2Moderately unsustainability - 3Strongly unsustainability
3
What are the chances that the decision will achieve its prefixed outcome?
+ 3High rate of success + 2Moderate rate of success + 1Slight rate of success 0Neutral - 1Slight rate of failure - 2Moderate rate of failure - 3High rate of failure
-3
How large is the gamble involved in the decision and how drastic would the impact be if the outcome were negative?
+ 3Highly safe + 2Moderately safe + 1Slightly safe 0Neutral - 1Slightly risky - 2Moderately risky - 3Highly risky
3
Was the decision made along with a larger framework of actors and/or institutional arrangements?
+ 3Highly cooperative + 2Moderately cooperative + 1Slightly cooperative 0Neutral - 1Slightly uncooperative - 2Moderately uncooperative - 3Highly uncooperative
-2
Does the decision acknowledge, consider and respect the interests and identities of other parties?
+ 3Highly inclusive + 2Moderately inclusive + 1Slightly inclusive 0Neutral - 1Slightly exclusive - 2Moderately exclusive - 3Highly exclusive
-3
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