The China-Russia-North Korea Axis
This article sheds light on the strategic realignments and rising risks in the Asia-Pacific region.
Transformation in Global Power Balance and Multipolarity
Recent years have witnessed a profound transformation in the domain of global politics. The post-Cold War Western-centric order is facing increasing scrutiny due to escalating regional power struggles, restructuring economic dependency, and deepening ideological differences. Thus, discussions concerning multipolarity are a matter of concern within academic circles as well as governments and international corporations. Moreover, in this complex and shifting environment, states are actively seeking new alliances and re-evaluating existing partnerships, leading to significant changes in the global power dynamics. This, in turn, has resulted in an intricate web of risk factors in international relations that is further complicated due to the aforementioned dynamics. Therefore, the process of rapprochement between major powers has the potential to challenge existing balances and have profound impacts on both global governance and the economic and security architecture.
Beijing Summit and the China-Russia-North Korea Axis
Recent diplomatic developments in Beijing provide concrete examples of this transformation. The image of Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un standing together, hosted by Xi Jinping, is a notable geopolitical signal that reinforces the perception of a symbolic alliance against the West, despite the absence of an official summit (Ji, 2025). This symbolic unity engenders a perceived demonstration of strength for the US and regional allies, prompting a reassessment of strategic calculations in the Asia-Pacific region. Furthermore, it is widely acknowledged that Kim Jong Un’s visit is a key component of North Korea’s broader strategic approach, aimed at enhancing its diplomatic manoeuvrability, securing economic support from China, and achieving a more balanced relationship with Russia. Concurrently, the visit directly increases military risks by supporting North Korea’s revision of its next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile programme and its efforts to expand its nuclear capacity (Reuters, 2025). Consequently, the risk level of these developments is assessed as medium, and their potential impact is high. Thus, the triggering factors identified in the literature include the deepening of China-Russia defense cooperation, North Korea’s missile tests, and US diplomatic steps towards the region.
The 80th Victory Day military parade in Beijing is of particular interest, as it forms part of China’s broader strategic approach and aims to promote a deeper understanding of historical events while showcasing the nation’s growing influence on the global power dynamics in both the present and the future. Moreover, the participation of the leaders of Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Myanmar in the parade is being interpreted as a message of diplomatic and military solidarity against the Western-centric international system. The aforementioned analysts have designated these four as the “axis of upheaval” (The Guardian, 2025). Furthermore, the deployment of advanced weapons systems, intermediate-range ballistic missiles, and hypersonic technologies by China is intended to demonstrate its military strength to the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region. Thus, this display is pivotal in substantiating Xi Jinping’s assertion of international leadership and signifying a recalibration of the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region along the China-Russia-North Korea axis.
Kim Jong Un’s visit is of crucial significance, not only as a symbolic gesture of solidarity but also for strengthening strategic relations with China and Russia, breaking North Korea’s international isolation, and expanding diplomatic space in the Asia-Pacific region. Furthermore, the presence of the subject at the Tiananmen Square military parade, alongside Presidents Jinping and Putin, offers an opportunity to expand diplomatic networks through potential bilateral and trilateral meetings. However, his review of the next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile programme and the consolidation of its nuclear capabilities will directly increase military and strategic risks in the region (Kim & Kim, 2025). In this context, the China-Russia-North Korea axis is reshaping the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region through symbolic and concrete diplomatic manoeuvres, thereby creating high-impact political risk scenarios for the US and its regional allies in the medium and long term.
Risks and Strategic Implications in Asia-Pacific
From a diplomatic and military perspective, the risks posed by this axis can be assessed across several dimensions. Firstly, the deepening of China-Russia cooperation has the potential to result in a reshaping of the regional security architecture. Secondly, the advancement of North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities has compelled the United States and its regional allies to reconsider their strategic approaches to deterrence and response. Thirdly, this symbolic and concrete unity has the potential to exert pressure on international diplomatic norms and multilateral mechanisms. Therefore, it is possible that the reach of Western-centric institutional systems could diminish, giving added impetus to a multipolar world dynamic.
China and Russia’s military expenditure trends, as demonstrated in the graph, reveal the military dimension of an increasingly pronounced tendency towards bloc formation against the Western-centric security architecture. Furthermore, it is evident that China, with its stable and substantial expenditure, is engaged in long-term strategic capacity building. In contrast, Russia, with its rapidly rising budget due to crises, is focusing on short-term deterrence and power projection. From a political risk perspective, this situation, when viewed in conjunction with the recent diplomatic rapprochement in Beijing, suggests the possibility of a new balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region and globally, as the military strategies of the two countries, driven by different dynamics, complement each other.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the diplomatic and military developments in Beijing are indicative of the China-Russia-North Korea axis’s resolute strategy to recalibrate the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region. This axis exerts influence on international perceptions through a combination of symbolic and concrete actions, thereby engendering medium- and long-term risk scenarios for the US and its regional allies. The People’s Republic of China’s display of advanced weapons systems and military parades, whilst demonstrating its power through regional deterrence mechanisms, is testing North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and missile programme, thus forcing a reassessment of the current security architecture. The evidence suggests that Russia’s increased diplomatic visibility and cooperation in the fields of energy and defence have had a beneficial effect on the economic and strategic resilience of the axis.
In this context, these developments should be interpreted not merely as short-term symbolic risks but as a sign of a strategic transformation with the potential for serious long-term diplomatic, economic, and military consequences. Meanwhile, Potential risks for the US and its allies include the shifting balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region, the accelerating multipolar world order, the deepening of the regional arms race, and the reshaping of diplomatic isolation strategies. Consequently, meticulous observation of these developments in Beijing, coupled with anticipation of potential triggers (including China-Russia defense cooperation, North Korea’s missile tests, and diplomatic actions) and the subsequent updating of strategic planning based on risk scenarios, is imperative for maintaining global security and economic stability. Therefore, in order to navigate these challenges, policymakers must adopt a proactive approach, focusing on mitigating potential risks as well as capitalising on emerging diplomatic opportunities within the region
References
- Kim, H.-J., & Kim, T.-H. (2025, September 2). North Korea’s Kim Jong Un arrives in Beijing for military parade alongside Putin and Xi. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-kim-china-xi-putin-parade-9b47625f8f6c1e0c0391de9fae848e11
- Ji, D. (2025, September 2). Xi, Putin, Kim to share stage in Beijing, not summit table: NIS. The Korea Herald. https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10566954
- Reuters. (2025, September 2). North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to line up with the ‘big boys’ at China military parade. Asahi Shimbun. https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/16004005
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (n.d.). SIPRI Military Expenditure Database. https://milex.sipri.org/sipri
- The Guardian. (2025, September 1). China’s Victory day military parade: why are Putin and Kim Jong-un there, and what is the ‘axis of upheaval’? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/01/china-victory-day-military-parade-putin-kim-jong-axis-of-upheaval
