State Violence and Political Turmoil in Ethiopia: The Crisis in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia

Over the past five years, Ethiopia has experienced significant political turbulence, with state-perpetrated violence against civilians emerging as a critical concern. This period has been marked by armed conflicts, human rights violations, and complex political dynamics that have collectively heightened the political risks within the country.​ Assefa (2025) pointed out that state forces were found to be the main perpetrators of violence against civilians, accounting for over half of all documented cases of sexual violence. 

Conflict in the Tigray State

The conflict in the Tigray state, which began in November 2020, has been a focal point of state violence against civilians. The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), along with allied Eritrean forces, and Amhara and other regional militias, engaged in hostilities against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Throughout the conflict, numerous reports documented atrocities committed by state forces, including extrajudicial killings, sexual violence, and arbitrary detentions. Human Rights Watch reported that both Ethiopian and Eritrean forces were implicated in widespread abuses, contributing to a humanitarian crisis in the region (Human Rights Watch, 2025).​

The scale of the violence led to massive displacement, with millions fleeing their homes to escape the conflict. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimated that over 2 million people were internally displaced within Tigray and neighboring regions during the peak of the conflict (OCHA, 2023). Despite a peace agreement signed in November 2022, tensions persisted, and reports of sporadic clashes and human rights violations continued to surface.​

The Pretoria Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, signed on November 2, 2022, between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), aimed to end the devastating conflict in the Tigray region. However, subsequent actions by the Ethiopian government have raised concerns regarding violations of this agreement. Notably, the continued presence of Eritrean forces in Tigray, despite the agreement’s stipulations, has led to ongoing human rights abuses, including killings, sexual violence, and obstruction of humanitarian aid (Human Rights Watch, 2023). More importantly, the government’s failure to restore Tigray’s territorial integrity, particularly in areas like Western Tigray still under the control of Amhara regional forces and the Ethiopian government forces, has hindered the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and prolonged humanitarian suffering (Addis Standard, 2024). Additionally, these failures contravene the agreement’s terms (Addis Standard, 2023). Furthermore, the obstruction and diversion of humanitarian assistance have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in Tigray, undermining the agreement’s objective to provide relief to affected populations (Tigray Online, 2024). These violations not only hinder the peace process but also perpetuate the suffering of civilians in the region. Moreover, these breaches exacerbate political tensions and risk reigniting conflict in the region.

Violence in the Amhara and Oromia Regions

Beyond Tigray, the Amhara and Oromia regions have also witnessed significant state-perpetrated violence. In Amhara, clashes between federal forces and regional militias, particularly the Fano militia, escalated in 2024. The conflict resulted in civilian casualties and widespread displacement. The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect highlighted that government forces carried out extrajudicial executions, sexual violence, and torture against civilians in the region (Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, 2025).​

Similarly, in Oromia, the government’s intensified military operations against the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) led to increased violence. The Council on Foreign Relations noted that the conflict in Oromia escalated as violence spread closer to the capital, Addis Ababa, exacerbating the humanitarian situation and leading to further civilian suffering (Council on Foreign Relations, 2025).​

Quantitative Data on Civilian Impact

Accurate quantification of civilian casualties remains challenging due to restricted access to conflict zones and the fluid nature of the conflicts. However, available reports provide insight into the scale of the violence:​

“Tigray Conflict: Estimates suggest that hundreds of thousands of civilians were affected, with significant loss of life and widespread human rights abuses. The exact number of civilian casualties remains contested, but the conflict led to a humanitarian crisis affecting millions (The Guardian, 2025).​”

Comparing Tigray with other Ethiopian states from November 2020 to October 2021 highlights the intensity and consequences of the conflict, especially for civilians in Tigray. As shown in Table 1, there are statistically significant differences in the frequency of violence against civilians in Tigray compared to most other Ethiopian states. However, the mean of Tigray is higher than any state in Ethiopia while Tigray is smaller than some of the states in terms of population size and geographic size (Assefa, 2025). According to the report from Minority Rights Group (MRG), over two million people have been forcibly displaced in Tigray, with significant displacement also affecting the Afar and Amhara regions (MRG, 2022).

Table 1: Comparison of events of violence against civilians from Nov. 2020 to Oct.2021

Source: Assefa (2025)
Note: ***, **, and * denote significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels respectively.
Note: The data is aggregated to monthly frequency of events.

Amhara and Oromia Regions: While precise figures are elusive, reports indicate that thousands of civilians were killed or injured due to clashes between government forces and regional militias. The violence also resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands, exacerbating the humanitarian needs in these regions (Human Rights Watch, 2025).​

Political Risks Arising from State Violence

The persistent violence against civilians by state actors has precipitated several political risks in Ethiopia:​

Erosion of Public Trust: The involvement of state forces in human rights abuses has significantly undermined public confidence in the government. Amnesty International reported that abuses by security forces and violations of due process are common, contributing to a climate of distrust among the populace (Amnesty International, 2024).​

Escalation of Armed Insurrections: Heavy-handed state responses have often fueled further insurgencies. In Oromia, aggressive government actions against the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) have escalated violence, bringing conflicts closer to Addis Ababa (Council on Foreign Relations, 2025).​

International Isolation and Economic Sanctions: Documented human rights abuses by state actors have led to global condemnation, resulting in Ethiopia’s potential isolation and the imposition of economic sanctions, thereby hindering development and foreign investment (U.S. Department of State, 2023).​

Humanitarian Crisis: The violence has precipitated a severe humanitarian crisis, with millions requiring aid. The displacement of populations and disruption of livelihoods have strained resources and impeded development efforts (OCHA, 2023).​

Regional Destabilisation: The internal conflicts have had spillover effects, threatening the stability of the broader Horn of Africa region. The potential for renewed conflict with neighboring Eritrea, as indicated by recent troop mobilizations, underscores the broader geopolitical risks (Reuters, 2025).​

Conclusion

The past five years in Ethiopia have been marked by significant state-perpetrated violence against civilians, leading to profound political risks. The erosion of public trust, escalation of armed conflicts, international isolation, humanitarian crises, and regional destabilisation collectively underscore the urgent need for comprehensive reforms. Addressing these challenges requires accountability for human rights violations, inclusive political dialogue, and sustained efforts toward national reconciliation as well as regional dialogue to ensure sustainable peace, stability, investment flow and development.​

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