Post-COVID World and the Case of Paris Climate Change Agreement
Abstract
COVID-19 and subsequent lockdown of economies have significantly brought down global carbon emissions. However, many argue that this would be a temporary phenomenon and emissions would rapidly rise once the lockdown restrictions are fully withdrawn. If countries tend to focus on reviving their economies by emitting more carbons into the atmosphere in a post-COVID world that would lead to the non-compliance of emission reduction targets submitted by them under the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement, the only international emission reduction Agreement existing today to regulate global emissions. The successful implementation of the Paris Agreement is crucial for strengthening international efforts to combat climate change at present. This article focuses on the challenges that COVID-19 posing for the effective implementation of the Paris Agreement.
Keywords: Climate change, Paris Agreement, Post-COVID world, Kyoto Protocol, U.S., China.
The outbreak of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdown have ravaged the economies of almost all countries. The pandemic has changed the outlook of the world regarding the notions of security. Health security has become a significant concern for all states all of a sudden. However, in a post-COVID world, how we take forward the efforts to ensure health security is a critical question. COVID-19 is a reminder that the concept of security, especially the health security, needs to be understood in a broader context. It is not only the pandemics that endanger health security but also global threats like climate change has a major role in undermining human security due to the multifaceted challenges it poses. The COVID-19 situation has the potential to adversely impact the existing international climate change scenario and the working of multilateral climate change agreements, especially the 2015 Paris Agreement.
It is a fact that COVID-19 and extended lockdown of economies have significantly brought down the intensity of carbon emissions which is a major factor in contributing to climate change. The global carbon emissions have declined drastically for about 17% due to the pandemic followed lockdown. The lockdown period has witnessed the lowest carbon emissions in the past 14 years. The shutting down of industries worldwide, restrictions on travelling and limited economic activities have factored in reducing the carbon emissions and thereby indirectly benefitting the international efforts to combat climate change. However, many reports point out that this is only a temporary phenomenon as there are high chances that in the post-COVID world, the countries may increase their emissions rapidly to compensate for the economic loss that they had undergone during the lockdown period. If this happens, it would naturally obliterate all climate benefits that the world has achieved so far.
Paris Agreement and Emerging Concerns
As of now, the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement is the only international emission reduction Agreement ratified by the majority of the states. In a post-COVID world, if countries focus only on reviving their economies and maximising their economic growth that would adversely affect the successful implementation of the Paris Agreement which is the only alternative before the world at the moment to regulate ever-growing carbon emissions from states.
China, U.S. and India are respectively the three largest carbon emitters in the world. The cooperation of these three countries is essential for the successful implementation of any international climate change agreement. With the decision of the U.S. to withdraw from the Paris Agreement in 2017, the future of the Agreement itself is dependent on the climate initiatives of China and India. However, the economies of both these countries have severely been affected by COVID-19 lockdown. In this context, the immediate priority of all countries in a post-COVID scenario would be to revive their economies by permitting more carbon into the atmosphere. In such a situation, who will bear the responsibility for leading the Paris Climate Agreement which is critical in limiting the global temperature level below two degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, is a matter of grave concern.
Secondly, in the absence of U.S engagement from the Paris Agreement whether China and India would be sticking to their Paris emission reduction pledges is also doubtful in a post-COVID world as meeting the Paris emission reduction targets require substantial emission cuts from states. Though China and India have stated that they would stick to their Paris promises even after the U.S. announcement of their withdrawal from the Agreement; in a post COVID world, varied domestic economic compulsions on countries and the U.S. stance would be critical in deciding the future of the Agreement. The economic factor was one of the driving reasons that persuaded the U.S. to pull out from the Paris Agreement and earlier from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. In a post-COVID world, it is unlikely that the U.S. would reconsider its stance on the Paris Agreement, especially in a context of economic slowdown facing by countries followed by the pandemic.
Future of the Paris Agreement
Sustaining momentum of the Paris Agreement is critical in the efforts to combat climate change. Now, the entire world is suffering from the impacts of climate change such as extreme weather conditions, floods, sea-level rise, melting of glaciers and air pollution. The socio-economic stability of countries has been severely impacted by climate change. Developing and least developed countries that do not possess adequate financial and technological capacity to address climate change are suffering the worst due to climate change. Developing countries have already pointed out that meeting their nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement would be partially dependent on the transferring of financial and technological resources from the developed world. The economic slowdown followed by COVID-19 may result in delaying the climate funding promised to developing and least developed countries. So far, the developed countries have not transferred even half of the Green Climate Fund that was created in the 2010 Cancun Conference to assist the developing countries.
COVID-19 is posing several challenges to the survival of the global multilateral order. Nation-states have become reluctant to approach international organisations. The U.S has already announced its decision to suspend the funding for W.H.O. This disengagement of states with international organisations and the absence of collective responsibility is poised to intensify the existing global problems especially climate change. For combatting climate change, domestic action alone would not be sufficient. The collective action taken by states is needed to reduce the emission level and thereby to overcome the present crisis. It is vital that countries’ emission reduction programmes be monitored at the international level to ensure their compliance with the emission reduction targets. The 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement offers such a mechanism to monitor the emissions. However, the cooperation of all states is required towards achieving it. Earlier, though the Kyoto Protocol was in place to regulate global emissions, vested national interests of states had brought an early demise to the Protocol. In a post-COVID world, if multilateralism and multilateral organisations are not revived, the Paris Agreement would also face the same fate as that of the Kyoto Protocol. The Paris Agreement can survive only in a multilateral world order.
Climate inequality is poised to exacerbate in a Post-COVID world. Countries that are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change but at the same time lacking adequate financial and technological resources would be suffering more compared to other states. The expected decline in climate funding from developed countries would further marginalise indigenous communities, women, refugees and the migrants in states. Hence, to address the issues of equity and justice in the prevailing climate world, multilateral bodies and negotiation platforms to be strengthened. Paris Agreement was an outcome of many years’ long democratic engagements between nation-states in multilateral forums.
As of now, the Paris Agreement is the only international instrument that can monitor the emissions from countries. Hence it is crucial to ensure the successful implementation of the Paris Agreement for a better climate future. However, in these changed circumstances, in a post-COVID World, who will lead the Paris Agreement in the absence of big emitters like the U.S, how many countries would comply with their Paris emission reduction targets and how much resources would be transferred to developing countries, etc. are yet uncertain. Countries, including the U.S., need to realise that implementing the Paris Agreement is a shared responsibility of all states. The U.S. has the economic capacity, technological capability, and political power to provide effective climate leadership to the world. The Paris Agreement can meet its objectives only under the collective leadership of U.S., China and India. Hence, the successful implementation of the Paris Agreement is wholly dependent on the mutual cooperation of these states.
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