Political Instability in the Global South: The Rise of Military Coups in Africa and Their Economic Implications
In recent years, political instability in the Global South, particularly in Africa, has intensified, marked by a notable surge in military coups. Between 2020 and 2022, the continent experienced six successful military coups, including two instances of intra-coup conflicts and three attempted coups. This represents an approximate 229% increase in coup occurrences compared to the previous two decades (UNDP, 2023:3). This phenomenon has been especially pronounced in the Sahel region, as depicted in Figure 1, highlighting the risks of democratic regression, political volatility, and the increasing involvement of the military in governance (UNDP, 2023:14).
Preventing military intervention in governance has become a critical priority for stakeholders involved in continental security and democratization efforts. To create an environment where military coups become unfeasible, African nations must ensure governance that delivers high-quality, inclusive services to all citizens (Akinole and Makombe, 2024:13). Beyond the democratic implications, military coups have substantial economic and financial consequences, affecting credit ratings, foreign direct investment (FDI), sovereign debt sustainability, and overall market confidence.
The Impact of Regional Security Threats on Investment and Economic Stability
Many African nations that transitioned to democracy in the 1990s and 2000s are now experiencing growing public disillusionment with elected governments. Military coups often reflect poor democratic performance, ineffective governance, widespread corruption among political elites, and the underdevelopment of both mineral resources and human capital (Akinole and Makombe, 2024:13). Consequently, the Sahel region, sometimes referred to as the “coup belt” (Chatham House, 2023), has been particularly affected, as illustrated in Figure 2.
Regional security threats have also played a central role in political instability across Africa. Since gaining independence in the 1960s, many countries in the Sahel have faced persistent violent extremism (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024). Contemporary threats are linked to the presence of Islamist militant groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda and ISIS, leading to the Sahel region being characterized as the “epicenter of terrorism” globally (Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), 2024).
For investors and credit rating agencies, such instability raises significant concerns. Countries experiencing frequent coups often suffer sovereign credit downgrades, as seen in many African nations (Forbes, 2024). These downgrades increase borrowing costs, making access to international financial markets more difficult. Additionally, persistent security threats deter long-term infrastructure investments and exacerbate capital flight, as investors seek stability in alternative regions.
A key international concern is the phenomenon of “coup contagion,” where the rising number of coups exacerbates already fragile security crises in the Sahel, triggering ripple effects across the continent (American Security Project, 2022). A sustained pattern of coups can destabilize entire regions, further diminishing investor confidence, increasing refugee flows, and weakening democratic institutions. Moreover, the spread of terrorism and violence across the region could intensify under unstable military regimes, as violent extremists exploit security vacuums (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024). This escalation in conflicts not only threatens African security but also has broader global economic implications, given that migration and counterterrorism concerns are already central to international politics.
The Geopolitical Fallout
The rise in coups across Africa is likely to have geopolitical consequences beyond the continent, as military-led regimes often realign their international partnerships with global powers. For instance, Russia’s Wagner Group has established strong ties with post-coup governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic, providing security assistance in exchange for access to natural resources (BBC News, 2024). Additionally, while China is not directly involved in the region’s security dynamics, it has significant investments in African infrastructure and resources, having rapidly expanded its presence over the past 25 years (Cannon, 2024:167).
From an economic perspective, this shifting geopolitical landscape has direct consequences on trade agreements, development aid, and FDI patterns. Countries experiencing military takeovers often face economic sanctions and exclusion from international financial institutions, further straining their economies. Following the 2023 coup in Niger, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) imposed severe sanctions, leading to a sharp decline in economic conditions (International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2024). These sanctions negatively impact business environments, lowering creditworthiness, reducing liquidity, and limiting access to global capital markets.
Furthermore, traditional Western investors and multinational corporations may reconsider their presence in politically volatile regions, redirecting their investments elsewhere. This is particularly relevant for France and the United States, historically key security partners in the region, as they face growing anti-Western sentiment. This shift has led to several nations seeking the withdrawal of French troops, including Ivory Coast, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and Senegal (Robert Lansing Institute, 2025). Contributing factors include perceived neocolonialism, escalating regional security concerns, and a push for geopolitical realignment (Robert Lansing Institute, 2025).
With Western influence seemingly in decline, Africa has become a battleground for geopolitical competition, impacting trade, security, and diplomatic relations.
Bibliography
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