Perspective and Assessment of Geopolitical Upheaval Following Joseph Biden’s Victory in The US Presidential Election

Democratic candidate Joseph “Joe” Biden won the U.S. presidential 2020 nominee four days after the election.  Although Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, and current President, is legally challenging the legality of the results in some states, virtually all U.S. media, including pro-Republicans, and states around the world, have recognized Biden’s victory. This election marks an upcoming drastic upheaval in American foreign policy, so we could soon return to diplomacy similar to that exercised by Barak Obama. While Europe is hopefully, the rest of the world in general, and Africa in particular, have less reason to cheer.

In terms of foreign policy, President Trump’s term in office was patent by isolationism, a break with traditional allies, and diplomatic warming with former adversaries.  Although other parts of the globe are clearly impacted, the focus of this paper is on (A)-Europe, (B)-Asia, (C)- the Middle East, and finally (D)-Africa.

(A)-About Europe, we can glimpse a paradigm shift directly concerning (1) – the European Union, (2) – Great Britain, and (3) – Russia.  (1)-While Germany and France have continually deplored a deleterious relationship with the American partner in recent years, the election of Joe Biden will naturally accommodate them. Subjects such as the Paris agreement on climate change[1] or the financing of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will be revisited, having previously been disregarded by the Trump administration.[2][3] (2)-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson shared a special bond with the U.S. government, especially in light of its support for Brexit[4], so he may be subject to the changing policies of the new team. Already isolated in Europe, the US-British relationship could suffer in favor of a return to a stronger partnership between the European Union and America.  (3)-Finally, it seems undeniable that during the last four (04) years, the United States has made the rapprochement with Russia a cornerstone of its diplomatic apparatus. The Democratic Party has accused the outgoing President of collusion with the former enemy. A more distant relation, in times, to come, between the Eurasian and American powers is to be envisaged.

(B)- Asia would see itself once again in a position of conflict with the North American giant, this especially concerning (1) – China and (2) – North Korea. (1)-While relations with China have more or less normalized, we will soon see a resurgence of tension on economic matters and on the question of Taiwan, a country whose population aspire to more democracy and is close to the American ideal.  Until then, President Trump’s administration had been indifferent to this situation, something that the newly elected President could reverse. (2)- During his term in office, we must observe the outgoing American President’s definite desire to get closer to North Korea. On many occasions, Mr. Kim Jong-un and Mr. Donald Trump have multiplied meetings and signs of goodwill towards each other[5], so we can expect a return of tensions between the two historical enemies.

With regard to the (C)-Middle East, several hypotheses are possible. Many countries, notably (1) – Syria, (2) – Turkey, (3) – Libya, (4) – Iran, and irremediably (5) the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be impacted. (1)- In October 2019, President Trump announced his intention to withdraw American troops from Syrian territory.[6] He also let Turkey lead a military operation against the Syrian Defense Force (SDF)[7], which is fighting the regime of Syria’s President Bashar Al Assad. These two strong acts were perceived as a total break with the policy of the Democrats and President Barak Obama. With the Democrats in the White House could have a return to the initial strategy for Syria (2) – The permutation of American foreign policy towards this country will have a domino effect on Turkey. The Trump Team has often collaborated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in northern Syria[8], tirelessly causing a break in its bilateral and NATO relations with Turkey. Joe Biden is likely to revitalize this cooperation with this important partner in the global fight against terrorism.  (3)- In Libya, during the presidency of Barak Obama, the United States long supported the National Transitional Council (NTC) militarily and logistically. Upon President Trump’s arrival in Washington DC, the Americans withdrew from Libya, and implicitly supported Marshal Haftar’s troops.[9]

With President Biden at the helm, once again, we could see American troops in this country sanctuary of terrorist groups, and vectors of instability in the region. (4)-With regard to Iran, the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew[10] from the Iranian nuclear agreement[11] signed a few years earlier by Barak Obama, thus triggering American sanctions against Iran. Although denounced by the rest of the international community, Donald Trump persisted in calling for international sanctions against Iran. After Joe Biden’s victory, the conditionality of a return of the United States to the negotiating table on the nuclear issue will be at the center of discussions. (5)-The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has largely marked Mr. Trump’s presidency. Several political acts, notably the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state and the relocation of the chancellery to this city[12], have helped to explicitly demonstrate political support for this state. Paradoxically, Democratic administrations have for the most part supported a two-state solution. The first few months of the newly elected President will be decisive in determining the orientation of the United States towards this conflict.

With regard to (D)-Africa, it could be that the US interventionist and imperialist policy will resume in full. During the previous administration, two (02) objectives were clearly identified there: firstly, to counter the threat of radical Islamic terrorism and violent conflicts, and secondly, to control the Chinese and Russian presence. The United States is still the dominant actor in the security of the continent, and significant and coercive actions in the fight against terrorism are to be heard, this policy should probably continue. On the other hand, coming from the Democrats can now imagine the emission and interference in the sovereign political domain of certain states.

In conclusion, we should very soon see a return to a more classical foreign policy, modeled on the two terms of President Barak Obama. While this appears to bode well for some, others would feel more aggrieved.

References:

[1] The Paris Agreement builds upon the Convention and for the first time brings all nations into a common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects, with enhanced support to assist developing countries to do so. As such, it charts a new course in the global climate effort.

[2]Lisa Friedmans, 2019.

[3]Frederik Hof, 2019.

[4]Kevin Lamarque, 2019.

[5]Donal Trump, 2018.

[6]Hof, 2019.

[7]Jonathan Marcus, 2019.

[8]Vakkas Dogantekin, 2020.

[9]Karim Mezran, 2017.

[10]Zacharie Laub, 2020.

[11] The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action known commonly as the Iran nuclear deal or Iran deal is an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program reached in Vienna on 14 July 2015, between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States—plus Germany) together with the European Union.

[12]Mark Lander, 2017.

Al-Asharni Sarah, “Diplomats worry that Trump will withdraw from NATO if he gets a 2nd term as president”, Bussiness Insider, Sep. 4, 2020.

Dogantekin Vakkas, “US worked with YPG/PKK terrorists in Syria: CIA veteran”, Anadolu Agency, May. 5, 2020.

Friedman Lisa, “Trump Serves Notice to Quit Paris Climate Agreement”, The New York Times, Nov. 4, 2019.

Hof Frederik, “Trump withdraws US troops from northern Syria”, Atlanticcouncil, Otc. 7, 2019.

Lamarque Kevin, “Trump advisor Bolton: US would enthusiastically support a UK choice for no-deal Brexit”, Reuters, Aug. 13, 2019.

Landler Mark, “Trump Recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital and Orders U.S. Embassy to Move”, NY Times, Dec.6, 2017.

Laub Zacharie, “What Is the Status of the Iran Nuclear Agreement? “Council on Foreign Relations”, Jan. 7, 2020.

Marcus Johnathan, “Trump makes way for Turkey operation against Kurds in Syria”, BBC, Oct. 7, 2019.

Mezran Karim, “The New US Administration and Libya”, Ispioneline, Feb. 2, 2017.

Trump Donald address in Wheeling, West Virginia, Sep. 30, 2018.