Is Trump to Thank for the Resurgence of Canada’s Liberal Party?
US President Donald Trump has declared tariffs on Canada, among a number of countries around the world, but what impact has it had on Canada’s political landscape?
Canada’s Liberal Party had been experiencing a steep decline in its popularity ratings for a number of years. However, in the aftermath of US President Donald Trump’s decision to initiate a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian products coming into the United States in 2025, the party has experienced a resurgence in the polls, rapidly catching up to their Conservative Party rivals.
Outgoing Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, who announced his decision to resign in January, also seemingly managed to benefit politically from the spectre of Trump’s tariffs, with his popularity rating increasing by 12 points, before former banker, Mark Carney, won the race this week to become the next leader of the Liberal Party.
The controversial US tariffs have come to the forefront of Canadian voters’ minds, so, to what extent, has the ‘Trump effect’ impacted Canada’s political landscape?
Economic issues, such as inflation, the cost of living and housing unaffordability, have been tilting the polls in favour of the Conservative Party, even before Trump announced his run to become US president for a second term.
For several years, the Liberal Party had been experiencing voter fatigue, mired by Trudeau’s perceived inability in addressing the economy. The party witnessed a 12-point dip in its polling average from June 2023 until December 2024. By 2019, the party was reduced to minority status as it relied on the support of other parties to remain in power and, by 2024, it lost several once-safe Liberal seats, following a series of elections.
But the Liberal Party’s misfortunes cannot be solely attributed to Trudeau. The rise of inflation and the cost of living crisis has caused election shakeups worldwide. However, the growing disapproval of Trudeau provided Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre with political ammunition at a time when Trudeau’s own party was calling for his resignation.
Poilievre – who publicly linked Canada’s ‘disastrous’ economy to Trudeau – centred his criticism on inflation, cost of living, housing costs and immigration – issues that many Canadians believe Trudeau’s government has mismanaged. The strategy seemed to be effective, as Poilievre enjoyed a double-digit lead over Trudeau over the past year, and was therefore predicted to be Canada’s next prime minister.
While rising inflation and the cost of living crisis continues to be the top issues for Canadian voters, a new poll released by the Angus Reid Institute, found that voters would prefer newly elected prime minister, Mark Carney, over Poilievre in dealing with Trump. Indeed, the Liberal Party’s resurgence seems to have stemmed from Trudeau’s announcement on 6th January to resign from office and thereby begin a leadership campaign for the Liberal Party, in which Carney announced he would run. Carney, an established technocrat with a history of navigating Canada through global financial crises, seemed to rejuvenate the party at a time when Canadian anxiety surrounding the economy skyrocketed with another poll finding that relations with US – including tariffs – was third on the list of priorities for Canadian voters.
However, Progressive Conservative, Doug Ford’s, recent win in Canada’s most populous province, Ontario, has added another layer to discussion about what is most important to Canadian voters at the moment. During the election, Ford had been running on a campaign focused on fighting Trump, rather than on the domestic issues that were the focus of his opponents. He claimed that Ontarians needed a strong mandate to tackle Trump’s looming tariffs and that is what he indeed received.
But, though Ford’s win is the Progressive Conservative Party’s third majority in Ontario since 2018, political commentators have debated whether Trump was the determining factor in the election. The party seemingly secured a majority of its seats in the provincial legislature prior to Ford calling for an early election. It is likely therefore that Ford wanted to ensure his win through an early election before a major political upset could diminish his odds. In fact, Ford’s opponents have claimed that the early election was unnecessary as the federal government is primarily charged with negotiating tariffs, not Ontario. Furthermore, the provincial government would have approved additional spending to counteract Trump’s tariffs regardless, had they been imposed.
Though Ford’s Trump-focused platform appeared to have resonated more with Ontarian voters than domestic issues, Conservative support across the country is beginning to experience a dip at both the provincial and federal level. In this year’s election in Ontario, Ford won a total of 80 seats, which is three fewer than his 2022 win. He was also unsuccessful in securing a larger share of Queen’s Park, missing his goal of 90+ seats.
While Trump has fueled the Liberal Party in Canada – and, in the case of Ontario, the Progressive Conservatives too – believing that Donald Trump is the primary reason behind these trends would overlook the importance of Canada’s domestic landscape, particularly the economic hardship that has been driving political change globally. Though Trump’s influence cannot be ignored, it is also important to consider how a new Liberal leader, following years of Trudeau’s declining approval ratings, may have been the driving force for reinvigorating Canadian voters. Indeed, in a country struggling economically, the emergence of Mark Carney as the next Canadian prime minister, could continue to be pivotal for the Liberal Party’s burgeoning popularity in the months ahead.
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