Geopolitics: Now beyond “Geo”
2020 was a year of both challenges and hopes. As Covid-19 ravaged the world, people witnessed hopes outside the earth at the end of last year. On Dec. 17, China’s Chang’e-5 robotic lunar probe successfully returned with samples from the moon. While this is a big step for mankind from the perspective of the international science community, it may not be viewed as good by politicians outside China, especially in America.
Back in March 2019, U.S. Vice President Pence has announced that “the first woman and the next man on the moon will both be American astronauts, launched by American rockets from American soil.” Will China’s progress in the space lead to a space race? What does this lunar mission mean for the future U.S.-China relations and what will the pattern of future space exploration look like?
Space Race or Cooperation?
Under the Trump administration, the attitude from the U.S. side is clear: the U.S. has a Cold War mindset. Pence has clearly expressed his view: “We’re in a space race today, just as we were in the 1960s, and the stakes are even higher”. Therefore, a space race would be unavoidable if China holds the same view. However, we should note that unlike what happened in 1960s, China has shown its willingness for collaboration and a peaceful development. The message comes from both Chinese scientists but also from top political figures. Pei Zhaoyu, deputy head of the lunar program at the China National Space Administration said that the moon samples would be shared with international scientists. Chinese President Xi Jinping also said that he would like to see the peaceful use of space and that the space development needs to be viewed from the perspective humanity.
It seems that as long as the U.S. doesn’t make the first aggressive move, China has no appetite for a space competition. However, it does not mean that cooperation would come naturally as a result. On the U.S. side, technology theft has always been the biggest concern when considering cooperation with China. It still needs to be seen whether this concern is real and necessary as China builds up its indigenous space capability, blocking China from cooperation with U.S. experts. Attempts to isolate China from the international community will only incentivize more Chinese indigenous innovation and will not stop China’s space development. On the China side, although it welcomes a peaceful and joint development, it has not come up with any suggestions about the potential regulatory framework specifying the expected behaviors of nations and their rights and obligations. This leads to the question of how to allocate the space resources and what will be the pattern of future space exploration?
Space Exploration: What will it look like?
While the Outer Space Treaty serves as the basic legal framework of space activities, its ambiguity about resources allocation will lead to an anarchic situation if not a chaotic one. Therefore, many scenarios will be likely. One possible pattern is big powers compete for resources, leaving small nations behind. But nations that lack the ability to acquire outer space resources are always those that also need resources the most to lift people from extreme poverty. In this regard, in order to achieve the idea of humanity in developing the space, big countries like China are supposed to lead the building of an exploration framework that is mutually beneficial. To the rest of the world, China’s dealing with the South China Sea will be of a reference. Because of the controversies and concerns raised from China’s current assertive attitude towards the South China Sea, there is much to be done from China’s side in showing the world its good will.
Conclusion
The U.S. and China have different stakes in space development. For the U.S., it is mainly about security concerns. Thus, a security dilemma would apply and an ensuing space race mindset.
For China, it is more about resources exploration and economic prospects. Despite having the world’s second largest economy, the per capita GDP is far below that of the U.S.. Therefore, economic growth is still the top priority of China. Combined with the growing pressure of clean energy concerns both from its domestic citizens and the western world, exploring energy from the space would be an ideal choice. As to the future patterns of space development, unless the big powers help form a mutually beneficial framework, an anarchic situation – where big nations grab as much resources as they can based on the first presence argument and small nations are forced to bear what they have to (continued poverty and lack of energy) – will remain. Hopefully, cooperative inclination of the international science community will influence the decision-makers of the political world and not let geopolitics go beyond the “geo” in the future.
References
Goswami, N. (2018). China in Space: Ambitions and Possible Conflict. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 12(1), 74-97. Retrieved December 29, 2020, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/26333878
Moore, G. (2011). An International Relations Perspective on the Science, Politics, and Potential of an Extraterrestrial Sino-US Arms Race. Asian Perspective, 35(4), 643-658. Retrieved December 29, 2020, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/42704775
Gerry Shih. (2020, Dec.17). China moon mission returns to Earth, vaulting nation into ranks of space powers. Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-moon-mission-space/2020/12/17/367b6a26-4022-11eb-b58b-1623f6267960_story.html
