Forced to Flee: The Global Impact of Conflict-Driven Internal Displacement

An Escalating Crisis: The Surge of Internal Displacement

Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) are those forced to flee their homes due to conflict, violence, or disaster, without crossing international borders (Knox, 2018). Globally, between the years 2009 and 2022, there is a pattern of steady increase in internal displacement. As Figure 1 illustrates, while internal displacement numbers fluctuated modestly between 2009 and 2019, a pronounced upward trend begins around 2020. This correlates with the intensification of conflicts like those in Ethiopia and the Sahel. A sharp rise occurred in 2022, mainly due to the massive Russian invasion of Ukraine, which caused millions of new displacements – 11.6 million in 2022 (Perelli‐Harris et al., 2023). While armed conflict remains a principal push factor, as seen in Ukraine and Mali (Foltz and Shibuya, 2022), criminal violence, such as gang violence in El Salvador, is also a primary cause of internal displacement (Knox, 2018). Furthermore, persecution, political instability, and natural disasters, such as climate-related disasters, also contribute to the increasing numbers of IDPs (The World Bank, 2022).

Figure 1: Internally displaced people (IDPs) by conflict and violence 2009-2023

At What Cost? The Economic and Social Toll of Displacement

The economic cost of internal displacement is complex and high, as highlighted by IDMC’s cost model. The model approximates the direct cost of assistance and the indirect cost of lost productivity. The main components are livelihoods (loss of productivity), housing, healthcare, security, and education. The “IDMC Cost Estimates Report 2021” released by Cazabat and Yasukawa, (2021), estimated the average world economic cost of internal displacement in 2020 to be $370 per IDP, and therefore the overall global cost around $20.5 billion. 

The report said the highest economic burden in the 18 countries considered was due to loss of livelihoods (46%) and housing costs (24%). Income loss, for instance, was extremely high in Libya and Colombia. The economic cost of housing was a large percentage in South Sudan. Health costs, including food, nutrition, and minimum care, also impose a heavy burden, amounting to over half the economic burden in the Central African Republic. Security costs, including protection in host communities and camps, amounted to over $200 million in the Democratic Republic of Congo. 

The social consequence of displacement is also catastrophic. Education is interrupted, impacting the future growth and economic potential of displaced children (Knox, 2018). Displacement heightens vulnerability to crime, as evidenced by gangs taking over Albergues in El Salvador. Economic losses resulting from displacement may drive families to extreme poverty, increasing child labor risk. Violence and displacement-related trauma lead to crises in mental health at individual, family, and community levels (Perelli‐Harris et al., 2023).

Crime-related displacement, as in El Salvador, tends to result in overcrowding in cities as individuals seek refuge there (Cohen and Deng, 2009). Informal settlements can also become hotspots for violence and unrest, creating new sources of the same danger from which people fled in the first place (Vidal López, Atehortúa Arredondo and Salcedo, 2011). 

Violence Without War: Crime as a Driver of Displacement

According to the perspective of the IDMC Knox report (2018), displacement within Latin America is increasingly driven by criminal violence and not traditional armed conflict. Among the countries impacted by significant displacement are Mexico, El Salvador, Honduras, Venezuela, and Colombia as a result of influence by dominant cartels, omnipresent gangs, and violent extremes in cities. In Colombia, the primary causes of displacement are direct violence and murder of family members, which affect 60% of internally displaced (IDP) families (Vidal López, Atehortúa Arredondo, and Salcedo, 2011). Similarly, in El Salvador, displacement due to crime and violence has become a humanitarian emergency. Criminal organizations exert social control, demanding loyalty and creating a continuum of threat through selective violence, extortion, forced recruitment, and sexual violence, compelling families to remain in transit. The lack of state protection sustains this instability, inducing constant cycles of displacement as individuals are pursued even when they relocate.

These patterns of violent displacement by criminals remain underreported in global discourse compared to displacement resulting from conflict. This is due to the reasons such as dispersal of displacement, fear of reprisal, and distrust in institutions that may be affiliated with criminal groups. Additionally, global focus remains heavily focused on large-scale conflicts, yet often neglects the endemic and pervasive violence causing displacement in Latin America. However, as one can observe in Figure 2, Latin American countries have rampant internal displacement, even without classical war. This challenges the traditional wisdom of forced displacement, demonstrating that urban violence and organized crime can destabilize as much as war itself.

Figure 2: Conflict IDPs in 2023

Conversely, in African and Middle Eastern conflict zones like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Syria, and Sudan, displacement is largely due to state-based conflicts, civil wars, and insurgencies. While criminal activity will exploit such crises, the source is often times political battles over power, competition between groups of armed actors over territory, or inter-communal fighting in the midst of an overarching conflict. The Latin American example, which the IDCM report written by Knox (2018) brings attention to, includes a particular kind of forced displacement where organised crime and urban violence—instead of traditional armed struggles—represent the primary cause. Figure 2 further highlights these differences by region, illustrating how in Latin America displacement is related to criminal ordering rather than state-based warfare and hence is even more difficult to seek recognition and protection for the displaced.

The Way Forward: Addressing a Growing and Complex Crisis

Responding to displacement from both war and crime is a specific challenge for aid agencies and governments alike, given the highly diversified range of responses required to meet housing, security, mental health care, and guaranteeing education access among displaced people. The most crucial aspect is offering sustainable livelihoods and incorporating the IDPs into host populations. Properly integrated responses necessitate better federal/municipal government and international agency cooperation. 

Recommendations for policy include the development of forecasting tools for displacement, utilizing localized assistance scaled to urban and rural settings, incorporating displacement factors into urban planning, and designing long-term reintegration strategies.

Reference list

Cazabat, C. and Yasukawa, L. (2021). THEMATIC SERIES the Ripple effect: Economic Impacts of Internal Displacement UNVEILING THE COST OF INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT. [online] Internal Displacement Monitor Centre. Available at: https://api.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/IDMC%20Cost%20Estimates%20Report%202021.pdf.

Cohen, R. and Deng, F. (2009). Mass Displacement Caused by Conflicts and one-sided violence: National and International Responses. [online] STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE, pp.15–38. Available at: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/SIPRIYB0901.pdf 

Foltz, J. and Shibuya, S. (2022). The Effects of Internally Displaced Peoples on Consumption and Inequality in Mali. [online] Available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099012105182212190/pdf/IDU17ec2687314aa31482219ba01b58ebe2daebb.pdf 

Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) (2024). Global Internal Displacement Database (GIDD). [online] Internal-displacement.org. Available at: https://www.internal-displacement.org/database/displacement-data/.

Knox, V. (2018). An Atomised crisis Reframing displacement caused by crime and violence in El Salvador ThemaTic reporT Acknowledgements. [online] Internal Displacement Monitor Center (IDMC). Available at: https://api.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/201809-el-salvador-an-atomised-crisis-en.pdf 

Perelli‐Harris, B., Zavisca, J.R., Levchuk, N. and Gerber, T.P. (2023). Internal Displacement and Subjective Well-Being: the Case of Ukraine in 2018. Social Forces, 102(3), pp.1157–1179. doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/soad124.

The World Bank (2022). SOCIAL COHESION AND FORCED DISPLACEMENT. [online] Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/96b682aa-c330-518e-ab56-7ad0cadabb0e/content.

Vidal López, R.C., Atehortúa Arredondo, C.I. and Salcedo, J. (2011). The effects of internal displacement on host communities a case study of Suba and Ciudad Bolívar localities in Bogotá, Colombia. [online] Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Host-Communities-Colombia-English.pdf.