Explaining the Prevalence of Terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa
In the minds of many, the Middle East and North Africa are closely linked with terrorism, particularly Islamic. The strong connection between Islam, terrorism and the MENA region is further reproduced and strengthened by news and media. According to a study by Yusof et al. (2013), which analysed 109 news articles in The Economist and Time Magazine, 92.66% related to Islam were focused on the MENA region. Moreover, the portrayal of Islam has been largely negative since the 9/11 attacks. The same study shows that 51.38% of articles framed Islam negatively, while only 12.84% did so positively, with the remaining 35.78% being neutral. Of course, it is necessary to bear in mind that terrorism is a worldwide phenomenon and occurs in forms other than Islamic. Nevertheless, its prevalence and negative impacts in the MENA region are undeniable, which is why it is imperative to examine its possible root causes.
According to the Global Terrorism Index (2020), the MENA is the third most affected region in the world on average, preceded by South Asia and North America. However, two MENA countries, Syria and Iraq, figure in the top five countries most affected by terrorism, with Iraq being the most affected between 2004-2017, and only recently replaced by Afghanistan. Moreover, in the period from 2002-2019, the MENA has witnessed the highest number of terrorist attacks (37,553), which resulted in the highest number of deaths (96,360), followed by 74,087 victims in South Asia and 49,791 in sub-Saharan Africa. The rest of the world accounts for approximately 15, 000 casualties in total. Although the impact of terrorism in the MENA decreased more than the rest of the world in 2019, it is likely that it will continue to be a major security issue in the foreseeable future. In order to better understand the prevalence of terrorism in the Middle East, it would be useful to take a closer look at the formation of the region after the First World war.
State-to-Nation Balance
The current national borders of the MENA states were arbitrarily created by colonial powers, largely ignoring existing social structures and ethnic and religious composition of given territories. Therefore, this article will look at the issue of terrorism through the prism of ‘state-to-nation balance’ – a theoretical approach devised by Benjamin Miller (2006), and used by him to explain the war-proneness of the Middle East. The regional state-to-nation balance has two dimensions: state strength, referring to the institutions and resources available to state for governing, and degree of congruence, referring to the relationship between territorial states and the national aspirations and identities of the people. The incongruence between the two can have two dimensions – internal, meaning a presence of several national groups within one state, and external, meaning that a single national group is spread across more than one territorial state. The incongruence, or state-to-nation imbalance, can manifest in illegitimate states, pan-national movement, irredentist-revisionist states, incoherent or failed states, and illegitimate nations.
As mentioned above, Miller used this approach to explain the conflict proneness of the region, examining both interstate and intrastate conflict. He came to the conclusion that external incongruence and strong states lead to; some states being perceived as illegitimate (e.g., Israel), pan-national movements (e.g., pan-Arabism or pan-Islam), or irredentist-revisionist states (e.g., concept of Greater Syria). Internal incongruence and weak states in turn lead to failed states (e.g., Yemen) and secessions (e.g., the Kurds). As a result, the conflict, instability and failed states provide a fertile ground for terrorist organisations which can use the lack of state control to gain strength, and which can more easily radicalise the conflict affected population. Therefore, it is not surprising that the MENA countries most affected by terrorism are those that experienced turmoil during the Arab Spring or descended into a civil war, namely Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Egypt and Libya. However, while state-to-nation balance explains the war proneness, and therefore the creation of ideal breeding grounds for terrorism, it can also serve to explain the motives and ideologies of terrorist organisations.
Terror in the MENA
Together with an ideal environment, state-to-nation imbalance also explains the terrorist organisation’s raison d’être. Whereas the wider public may often directly link terrorism with Islam, there are in fact several types of terrorism. The focus of this article is on political terrorism, and its insurgent form in particular – other types of terrorism include pathological terrorism, state terrorism and vigilante terrorism. Schmid (2011) further identified five variations of insurgent terrorism, including social revolutionary (left-wing) terrorism, right-wing and racist terrorism, religious terrorism, nationalist and separatist terrorism, and single-issue terrorism. By investigating which variations are the most prominent in the MENA region, it will be possible to evaluate the role of state to nation imbalance in the prevalence of terrorism in the region.
To determine which types of terrorist organisations are the most prevalent in the region, this paper will analyse the list of international terrorist groups designated by the United States. It is crucial to acknowledge that organisations designated as ‘terrorist groups’ differ between states – for example, while the US has designated Hamas as a terrorist group, Russia did not do so and even holds official meetings with the group’s representatives. Therefore, it might be argued that a group’s inclusion on the terrorist list is, to a significant extent, a political tool that allows for certain measures to be taken or to serve a normative role. In addition, it means that not all terrorist groups present in the region at the same time are included in the list. Nevertheless, the United States is a major global power with strong interests in the MENA region, which is why its list of international terrorist organisations can serve as an ideal point of reference in identifying different types of terrorism.
Out of all the groups designated as terrorist by the US State Department, 25 are active in the MENA region. The majority of 15 groups were identified as religious, all of them motivated by Islam. Five groups are nationalist, and three can be seen as a blend of nationalism and religion, including Hamas and Jaysh al-Adl, which are motivated by Islam, and Israeli Kach (Kahane Chai), which is based on the combination of nationalism and Judaism. The Turkish Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party is the only left-wing organisation, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps do not fit any of the varieties since they can hardly be considered an insurgent group.
Based on this analysis, it can be argued that the prevalence of terrorism in the Middle East is, to significant extent, caused by both internal and external incongruence. Internal incongruence is represented by nationalist organisations seeking the establishment of their own state, particularly by the Kurds and the Palestinians. External incongruence is represented by Islamic terrorist organisations, most notably Islamic State or Al-Qaeda, which are often motivated by the pan-Islamist ideology that perceives the current territorial states as illegitimate. They therefore seek to re-establish the Islamic Caliphate. Therefore, it can be argued that terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa is a structural issue that came as a result of European power’s colonial politics. This in turn means that fighting terrorism in the region is a long-term objective that will need comprehensive approach which will tackle the inherent structural flaws of the regional system and that will be able to bring stability and prosperity to the local population.
References
Institute for Economics & Peace, 2020. Global Terrorism Index 2020: Measuring the Impact of Terrorism. [online] Sydney. Available at: <https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GTI-2020-web-1.pdf> [Accessed 19 March 2021].
Miller, B., 2006. Balance of Power or the State-to-Nation Balance: Explaining Middle East War. Security Studies, [online] 15(4), pp.658-705. Available at: <https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636410601184587> [Accessed 19 March 2021].
National Antiterrorism Committee, n.d. Unified federal list of organizations, including foreign and international, designated as terrorist by the courts of the Russian Federation | National Antiterrorism Committee. [online] Available at: <http://en.nac.gov.ru/node/950.html> [Accessed 20 March 2021].
Schmid, A., 2011. The Routledge handbook of terrorism research. Routledge.
US Department of State, 2020. Foreign Terrorist Organisations. [online] Available at: <https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/> [Accessed 20 March 2021].
Yusof, S., Hassan, F., Hassan, S. and Osman, M., 2013. The Framing of International Media on Islam and Terrorism. European Scientific Journal, [online] 9(18). Available at: <https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/236406162.pdf> [Accessed 19 March 2021].
