Cuba: The Silent Death

Escalating US economic pressure and chronic energy shortages are accelerating the collapse of Cuba’s essential public services, leaving millions increasingly vulnerable.

Cuba’s worsening fuel shortages have disrupted healthcare, transport, food distribution and education, exposing the fragility of essential services already weakened by years of economic deterioration. As Washington intensifies pressure on Havana, the humanitarian consequences raise urgent questions about how critical civilian infrastructure can be protected.

A Humanitarian Crisis Unfolding

For seven-year-old Edianet, breakfast on a March morning in Havana consisted of rationed bread and a small portion of butter donated by a tourist. Her family’s remaining food had spoiled during a nationwide blackout days earlier. With little left to prepare for lunch, her father, Cristóbal Estrada, faced a

20-kilometre journey to relatives who had offered assistance. Finding transport was itself uncertain amid Cuba’s fuel shortages. The family’s circumstances, documented by Associated Press journalist Andrea Rodríguez, illustrate how disruptions to electricity and transport have compounded the difficulties already facing low-income households (Rodríguez, 2026).

A power outage had destroyed the family’s food reserves, while fuel shortages made replacing those supplies more difficult. For households already living with severe financial constraints, each disruption deepens their vulnerability to the next.

By October 2026, nine months after the United States intensified restrictions on Cuba’s oil imports, the country’s essential services were operating under extraordinary pressure. Hospitals were postponing operations, public transport had reached historic lows, and prolonged blackouts continued to disrupt daily life.

Cuba had already endured years of economic deterioration, accelerated emigration and ageing infrastructure. The latest restrictions have compounded these vulnerabilities, bringing the country into what the International Crisis Group described as its most acute humanitarian crisis in decades (Curtis, 2026). While international attention shifts between crises elsewhere, Cuba’s emergency has continued through the gradual erosion of the systems sustaining its population.

An Island Running Out of Energy

On 29 January 2026, President Donald Trump signed an executive order authorising additional tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba (The White House, 2026a). This followed the American intervention in Venezuela earlier that month, after which Venezuelan oil shipments to the island ceased. Mexico, another crucial supplier, subsequently suspended its deliveries.

The additional tariff measures were subsequently terminated on 20 February, although the national emergency concerning Cuba remained in force and other American restrictions continued (The White House, 2026b). In 2025, Venezuela and Mexico together supplied 86 per cent of Cuba’s imported crude oil (Winston and Espejo, 2026). The consequences have extended throughout the island’s economy. Cuba relies heavily on imported fuel to generate electricity, and repeated shortages have forced power plants to reduce output. Electricity failures have subsequently affected the operation of public services already weakened by years of inadequate investment.

In September, another nationwide grid collapse affected approximately 9.4 million people. According to ACAPS (2026), the blackout resulted from reduced electricity generation amid shortages of imported oil, aggravated by chronic weaknesses in the national grid. The resulting interruptions also affected water distribution and sanitation, increasing the risk of infectious disease.

Figure 1. Daily electricity shortfalls in Cuba, 3 September–2 October 2026, showing persistent shortages exceeding 2,000 MW on most days with comparable observations. Source: CiberCuba (2026), based on daily reports from Cuba’s National Electric Union (UNE).

 The September grid collapse was part of a wider pattern of electricity disruption. An analysis of daily reports from Cuba’s National Electric Union found that maximum electricity shortfalls exceeded 2,000 megawatts on 23 of the 28 days, with comparable observations between 3 September and 2 October (CiberCuba, 2026). Even after the national grid was restored, shortages remained severe. The figures illustrate the persistent uncertainty facing households dependent on electricity for refrigeration, water supply and other essential activities. By October, public transport offered another measure of the crisis’s severity. According to Cuban Transport Minister Eduardo Rodríguez Dávila, daily interprovincial bus departures from Havana had fallen from 419 in 2025 to just 11. He expected public transport journeys nationwide to decline by 75 per cent over the year (Sherwood, 2026).

Figure 2. Daily interprovincial bus departures from Havana fell from 419 in 2025 to just 11 in October 2026, a reduction of approximately 97 per cent. Source: Sherwood (2026), Reuters, citing Cuban Transport Minister Eduardo Rodríguez Dávila. 

The decline represents a reduction of approximately 97 per cent in reported daily departures. For Cubans dependent on public transport, the consequences extend well beyond the inconvenience of longer journeys. Travelling between provinces to visit relatives, access specialised medical treatment or obtain necessities has become increasingly difficult. Those without access to private vehicles face particularly limited alternatives (Sherwood, 2026).

The human consequences become evident in the experience of 85-year-old Sagrado Armando García. When he collapsed at home, his son was unable to drive him to hospital because the family car had no fuel. García, who had spent decades working for Cuba’s Ministry of Social Security, also described becoming dizzy from hunger. “They are leaving us to our fate,” he told Reuters (Naranjo and Pérez, 2026). His experience reveals the vulnerability created when public services depend on infrastructure that can no longer function reliably. Access to medical treatment offers little protection when a patient cannot reach it.

When Healthcare Depends on Electricity

Cuba’s healthcare system has historically been a source of national pride. Its emphasis on preventive medicine and extensive public provision contributed to health outcomes that once compared favourably with those of many wealthier countries. Today, the system is struggling to maintain essential treatment.

In May, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the World Health Organisation reported that more than 100,000 patients, including 11,000 children, were awaiting surgical procedures delayed by electricity interruptions and shortages of medical supplies (Curtis, 2026).

The consequences of postponed treatment extend beyond the patients already waiting. Conditions that could previously have been managed through timely medical intervention may deteriorate as delays increase. People requiring repeated treatment face additional uncertainty over whether the necessary equipment or transport will be available.

The vulnerability of Cuba’s healthcare system was already visible before the latest restrictions. According to Cuba’s national statistics, compiled by Main et al. (2026), infant mortality increased from 4.0 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 9.9 in 2025. This represents an increase of approximately 148 per cent over six years, reversing an important area of progress in Cuban public health.

Figure 3. Cuba’s nationally reported infant mortality rate, 2017–2025, measured in deaths per 1,000 live births. The rate increased from 4.0 in 2019 to 9.9 in 2025. Source: Main et al. (2026), Center for Economic and Policy Research, using Cuban national statistics.

 The trend reveals that Cuba’s public health difficulties were deepening several years before the additional oil restrictions introduced in January 2026. Infant mortality is influenced by numerous factors, including maternal healthcare, nutrition and access to timely treatment. Its rise cannot be attributed to a single policy or event. Nevertheless, the deterioration demonstrates the pressures already facing Cuba’s healthcare system when the latest energy crisis began.

The continued disruption is particularly concerning for patients requiring dialysis or cancer treatment, where interruptions may carry serious medical consequences. The World Health Organisation has warned that unreliable electricity and restricted transport are affecting the delivery of these essential services (Curtis, 2026).

Healthcare depends on an entire network of support. When a hospital cannot guarantee electricity, when an ambulance cannot obtain fuel, or when medicines cannot be delivered, the ability to provide care becomes increasingly uncertain.

Hunger Behind Closed Doors

The effects of the crisis are equally visible in Cuban households. For Yuneisy Riviaux and her family, the disappearance of a refrigerator’s contents after a blackout represented the loss of food they could scarcely afford to replace. Her husband’s journey to obtain assistance from relatives was made more difficult by the same fuel shortages contributing to the country’s transport crisis.

In her interview with the Associated Press, Riviaux described struggling to explain the absence of food to her daughters. “Some days I manage to get food,” she said (Rodríguez, 2026). Her family is among many confronting food insecurity after years of declining agricultural production and reduced purchasing power.

Cuba’s domestic food production fell by more than 50 per cent between 2021 and 2025 (Curtis, 2026). This decline has increased the country’s dependence on imports, at a time when shortages of foreign currency have weakened its ability to purchase essential commodities abroad. Fuel scarcity has introduced further difficulties into domestic food production. Agricultural machinery requires energy to operate, while harvests must be transported from rural areas to urban markets. A disruption in transport can therefore prevent available food from reaching consumers. For perishable goods, prolonged electricity failures create the additional risk that food will spoil before it can be sold or consumed. Riviaux’s family experienced this directly. The blackout that destroyed their refrigerated food was followed by the difficulty of finding transport to obtain more. Their circumstances illustrate how the consequences of energy shortages accumulate at household level, particularly among families without the financial resources to secure alternatives.

The Disappearance of Ordinary Necessities

For 76-year-old Gladys Valdés, the impact of Cuba’s electricity shortages can be measured in flights of stairs. Valdés lives on the seventeenth floor of an apartment building in Havana. During blackouts, the lift stops functioning, leaving her to climb the stairs to reach her home. Sometimes she must carry groceries with her. Once upstairs, she may find that the water supply has also stopped because the building’s pumps depend on electricity (Reuters, 2026). Her experience captures the physical burden created when essential infrastructure becomes unreliable. Tasks that ordinarily require little thought begin to demand substantial time and effort. For older residents, particularly those with reduced mobility, the loss of electricity can effectively restrict movement within their own homes. Water supply interruptions present an additional threat.

According to ACAPS (2026), recurrent blackouts have disrupted water pumping and waste management, increasing the risk of disease outbreaks. Without dependable electricity, maintaining sanitation becomes increasingly difficult, especially in densely populated urban areas. These vulnerabilities have also complicated recovery from Hurricane Melissa, which struck Cuba in October 2025. The storm damaged or destroyed more than 215,000 homes, leaving many families dependent on reconstruction efforts that have since been constrained by material and energy shortages (IFRC, 2026, cited in Curtis, 2026). Some communities are therefore confronting the consequences of several emergencies simultaneously. Infrastructure damaged by the hurricane remains in need of repair, while the resources required to restore it have become more difficult to obtain.

A Generation Learning in the Dark

The crisis has also reached Cuba’s classrooms. At Havana’s Abel Santamaría School for the Blind, fifth-grade teacher Yarnelys Bec Abalela has spent 21 years helping children with visual impairments. She first attended the school herself at the age of three, when a congenital cataract threatened her sight. After completing her education, she returned to teach children facing similar difficulties (Naranjo, 2026). Her career reflects the role specialised education has played in providing opportunities for children with disabilities. Yet the conditions under which she now teaches are increasingly difficult.

Prolonged electricity outages have forced staff to reorganise lessons around the availability of daylight. Activities are sometimes moved closer to windows or relocated to courtyards and hallways so that pupils with limited vision can continue participating. The difficulties are compounded by shortages of specialised educational materials, including Braille paper.

Fuel shortages have also reduced the school’s ability to maintain its normal timetable. Instead of attending classes five days each week, its 44 pupils now study from home on Fridays, completing exercises assigned by their teachers.

School director Suramis Rodríguez has expressed concern about the limitations of this arrangement, explaining that support from family members cannot fully replace instruction from trained specialists (Naranjo, 2026). For pupils requiring specialised teaching, the loss of classroom time is particularly consequential. Their education often depends on individualised support and learning materials that may be difficult to reproduce at home. The school’s continued operation demonstrates considerable commitment among teachers and staff. Yet the reductions to its teaching schedule show how prolonged shortages can gradually diminish the quality and accessibility of public services, even when those services remain formally available.

A Crisis Years in the Making

Cuba’s present emergency has developed through a combination of longstanding domestic problems and intensified external restrictions. The Cuban government attributes much of its economic deterioration to the US embargo, which has restricted trade and financial transactions for more than six decades. Washington, meanwhile, argues that

Cuba’s economic difficulties stem principally from government mismanagement and the limitations of its state-led economic model. Cuba’s economy has suffered from insufficient investment, declining productivity and restrictions on private enterprise. These weaknesses have contributed to the deterioration of public infrastructure, leaving the country particularly exposed to disruptions in imported energy (Curtis, 2026).

The latest US restrictions have placed additional pressure on this already weakened system. Washington maintains that its sanctions are intended to exert pressure on the Cuban government. Some humanitarian assistance and private-sector fuel deliveries have been permitted. Nevertheless, humanitarian organisations have documented the consequences of wider fuel shortages for public services and the civilian population.

This distinction between intended political targets and experienced humanitarian consequences raises questions that extend beyond Cuba. The use of economic pressure to pursue political objectives has a long history in international relations. Whether such policies can produce political change without imposing extensive costs on the population remains a subject of debate, one that deserves separate examination. For the purposes of understanding Cuba’s present emergency, the humanitarian consequences are already sufficiently documented to demand attention.

When International Assistance Cannot Keep Up

International organisations have repeatedly warned about the deterioration of living conditions in Cuba. The United Nations and humanitarian agencies have provided assistance, while foreign governments have contributed emergency funding and supplies.Yet the crisis has also complicated the delivery of humanitarian support.

A shipment of medical supplies may reach a Cuban port, but distributing it requires functioning transport networks. Food assistance depends on reliable supply chains, while access to clean water requires infrastructure capable of operating through prolonged electricity shortages. The systems needed to deliver humanitarian relief are themselves among those most affected by the energy crisis.

In April, UN Resident Coordinator Francisco Pichón warned that additional fuel shipments could offer temporary relief but would remain insufficient to address the structural constraints affecting essential services (Pichón, 2026). A practical humanitarian response would prioritise reliable energy supplies for hospitals, medical transport and water treatment facilities. Washington could establish clearly defined humanitarian exemptions for essential fuel deliveries, while UN agencies and participating relief organisations could help monitor distribution to designated facilities. Such an arrangement would require cooperation from Havana, particularly in granting access to delivery records and verifying that fuel reaches its intended recipients. Smaller-scale investment in solar-powered water pumps and healthcare facilities could also reduce dependence on the national grid. The United Nations has already supported solar-powered water infrastructure in affected communities (United Nations, 2026). Progress could be assessed through the reliability of electricity and water provision at participating facilities, although monitoring access and the availability of equipment would remain significant constraints.

Unlike a sudden natural disaster, the erosion of public services may unfold gradually, without a single event that captures sustained global attention. For those experiencing it, the consequences are no less immediate.

The Silent Death

In June, García’s inability to reach hospital revealed what fuel shortages meant for one elderly Cuban. In March, the blackout that destroyed Riviaux’s food forced her husband to search for assistance elsewhere. By October, teachers at the Abel Santamaría School were adapting their classrooms around electricity cuts and increasingly limited supplies. Their experiences reveal a common pattern. As essential infrastructure deteriorates, everyday life becomes more precarious, and existing vulnerabilities deepen.

The crisis carries consequences that may persist well beyond the immediate shortage of fuel. Delayed medical treatment can worsen health outcomes. Interrupted education can affect children’s development. Families forced to devote increasing resources to obtaining food and water have less capacity to withstand future disruptions.

For Cuba, recovery will require more than restoring individual services. Years of economic deterioration have weakened the institutions upon which recovery itself depends. The country’s political future remains uncertain, as does the trajectory of relations with the United States. But for ordinary Cubans, the effects of the crisis are already being felt through the gradual disappearance of necessities that once made daily life possible.

The tragedy of Cuba’s humanitarian emergency lies partly in this gradual deterioration. Each additional hardship becomes familiar, while the conditions required for a dignified life become increasingly difficult to sustain. And as the extraordinary becomes ordinary, the danger is that an increasingly severe humanitarian crisis comes to be accepted as another feature of life on the island.

This is the first article in a two-part ATLAS series. The second will examine the geopolitical objectives and consequences of Washington’s intensified economic pressure on Cuba.

References

ACAPS (2026) ‘Cuba: Latest updates on country situation’, 23 September. Available at: https://www.acaps.org/en/countries/cuba

CiberCuba (2026) ‘En Cuba se normalizan los apagones extremos: al menos 23 días del último mes superaron los 2.000 MW’, 4 October. Available at: https://www.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-10-04-u1-e13-s27061-nid341873-cuba-normalizan-apagones-e xtremos-al-menos-23-dias

Curtis, J. (2026) ‘Frequently asked questions: Cuba’s humanitarian crisis and US tensions in 2026’, House of Commons Library, 17 August. Available at: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10991/

Main, A., Sammut, J., Weisbrot, M. and Long, G. (2026) ‘US Sanctions and the Sharp Rise in Infant Mortality in Cuba’, Center for Economic and Policy Research, 27 April. Available at: https://cepr.net/publications/us-sanctions-and-the-sharp-rise-in-infant-mortality-in-cuba/

Naranjo, A. (2026) ‘At Cuba’s special ed schools, teachers keep classes going despite crisis’, Reuters, 23 October. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cubas-special-ed-schools-teachers-keep-classes-going-despite-cr isis-2026-10-23/

Naranjo, A. and Pérez, N. (2026) ‘Cuba’s revolutionary generation pushed to breaking point by US blockade’, Reuters, 10 June. Available at: https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/cubas-revolutionary-generation-pushed-to-breaking-point-b y-us-blockade-4734467

Pichón, F. (2026) ‘Cuba is running out of time. We need fuel now to save lives’, United Nations, 1 May. Available at: https://unsdg.un.org/latest/stories/cuba-running-out-time-we-need-fuel-now-save-lives

Reuters (2026) ‘Havana residents left in darkness after Cuba power grid collapse’, 16 March. Available at: https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/havana-residents-left-in-darkness-after-cuba-power-grid-collapse/d GFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX1ZBNDY2MjE3MDMyMDI2UlAx

Rodríguez, A. (2026) ‘One Cuban family navigates daily life under a US oil embargo and a deepening economic crisis’, Associated Press, 1 April. Available at: https://www.wlrn.org/americas/2026-04-01/one-cuban-family-navigates-daily-life-under-a-us-oil-embarg o-and-a-deepening-economic-crisis

Sherwood, D. (2026) ‘Cuba’s public transport plunges to all-time low amid US fuel blockade, minister says’, Reuters, 22 October. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cubas-public-transport-plunges-all-time-low-amid-us-fuel-block ade-minister-says-2026-10-22/

United Nations (2026) ‘Noon briefing of 14 May 2026’, United Nations Secretary-General, 14 May. Available at: https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/highlight/2026-05-14.html

The White House (2026a) ‘Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba’, Executive Order 14380, 29 January. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/01/addressing-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-g overnment-of-cuba/

The White House (2026b) ‘Ending Certain Tariff Actions’, Executive Order 14389, 20 February. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/02/ending-certain-tariff-actions/

Winston, K. and Espejo, S. (2026) ‘Cuba faces fuel crunch as US policies squeeze oil imports’, S&P Global, 9 February. Available at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/020926-cuba-faces-fuel-crunch-as-us-policies-squeeze-oil-imports