Africa as the Theatre of a New Proximity War Between Russia and the Western Bloc – Part I

While the Cold War ended more than three decades ago, we are witnessing the resurgence of confrontation between East and West in a new theatre – Africa. At the expense of the people, it appears once again that geopolitical interests are taking precedence over African stability and development. This analysis will start by taking two case studies to illustrate its contention.

Libya

Since the fall of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has been plagued by insecurity.  Behind the bitter struggle for control of the country that pits Fayez Al-Sarraj’s, Government of National Unity (GNA) against the National Liberation Army (NLA) of Marshal Haftar, the genuine opposition and diverse involvement of the United States and Russia is all to evident. Although recognized and supported by the United Nations, the GNA controls only Tripoli and its environs. How then can we explain the inaction of the UN body in the face of this conflict that has been going on for more than seven years?

The answer lies in the reciprocal neutralization of the members of the Security Council – essentially, the Russians and the Americans. It is important to understand that the control of Marshal Haftar is established over a large eastern zone of the country, where the country’s oil deposits are located. Vladimir Putin’s Russia has undertaken to conclude oil and construction agreements in Libya, home to the largest oil reserves and the fifth largest reserves of natural gas on the African continent. On the military level, Russian cargo planes have regularly made expeditions to the LNA (Libyan National Army) forces, carrying military ammunition and soldiers of the pro-Russian Syrian regime. Beyond that, Russia is suspected of having deployed nearly two thousand mercenaries to fight with the LNA, and nearly a dozen fighter planes to support private military contractors.  On the political level, Russia has systematically opposed the sanctions issued against the LNA by the United Nations Security Council and has allowed the printing of a rival Libyan currency in Russia.

As far as the United States is concerned, the commitment is certainly less direct, but it is just as sustained. Contrary to Russia, which acts in the open, the US uses the United Nations, and especially Turkey and the anti-Islamic coalition, as its proxy actors or pretext for involvement.

Since 2011, the US have officially conducted air strikes and sporadic raids in the country against Islamist groups.  In 2014, U.S. commandos seized an oil tanker bound for anti-government militias and returned it to the Libyan National Government. While the aegis of the anti-Isis coalition may justify U.S. neutrality, support for Fayez is certain. Although Turkey also pursues its own interests in this conflict, it turns out that the old adage that my enemy’s enemy is my friend (especially under the circumstances) applies here on several levels. Turkey has periodically transported arms, ammunition and aid to the Fayez government. In July 2019, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the President of Turkey, threatened to declare war on Khalifa Haftar after receiving news of the arrest of six Turkish citizens by Haftar’s forces. The Turkish parliament voted on January 2, 2020 to send troops and armament to help the internationally recognized government of Libya. As for the United Nations, Uncle Sam has multiplied plans to sanction Haftar, but has also worked for talks to be held so that the Marshal could lay down his arms. Although the American interest is not as important as that of the Russians, it is the latter’s involvement that preserves American activism.  While Russia is trying to position itself, the United States will not sit idly by and watch as Russian influence in Libya flourishes.

Central African Republic 

It would be a truism to say that this country has been, since its independence, a preserve of the West, especially of France. This paradigm has been changing for almost three years now. Due to the military agreements with President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, Russia has become an important cooperator, thus challenging the French position. This French preponderance was visible when the violence of 2013 between the Séléka and the Anti-Balak was at its height. The UN deployed the MISCA (International Mission in Support of the Central African Republic under African leadership), which was replaced by MINUSCA (United Nations Mission in the Central African Republic). In support of MISCA, France launched Operation Sangaris, composed of nearly 1,200 military personnel. Nearly eight years later, the security situation in the Central African Republic is precarious. In the place of French troops at the side of MINUSCA, there are Russian forces and nearly 300 military instructors.  The National Security Advisor to the Central African President, Valery Zakharov, is a former Russian spy.  To this should be added the private Russian company Wagner. As in Libya, Wagner is seeking financial contracts in a country with diverse natural resources ranging from gold and uranium, to hydrocarbons and rare wood species. With regards to its main strategic resource, diamonds, the country is ranked in the top ten best endowed in the world. It could be that Moscow is using the Central African Republic as a back door to larger and more resource-rich economies nearby, including Cameroon and Congo-Brazzaville, two other former French prefectures.

References:

1. Ghanmi Lamine, “Libya’s Islamic militants brag about receiving new Turkish weapons,” The Arab Weekly, May 26^th, 2019
2. Kanzanci Handan, “New arms shipments come for Haftar forces: Libyan army”, Anadolu Agency, February 8^th, 2020
3. Londono Ernesto, Hauslohner, Abigail, “U.S. Navy SEALs take over oil tanker for return to Libya”, The Washington Post, March 17^th, 2014
4. Robinson Kali, “Who’s Who in Lybia’s War”? Council on Foreign Relations, June 18^th, 2020