AfD: Germany’s Turning Point

How the Far Right is Changing German Politics

Over recent years, far-right parties have emerged as influential actors in many European democracies. Now, they are key players in Europe’s political landscape. In Germany, the AfD’s rise reflects a shift in political priorities away from European integration and towards the contestation of state institutions and the engagement of voters who feel inadequately represented by mainstream parties.

Established in 2013, the Alternative für Deutschland or Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a far-right political party (Lara, 2026) in the ascendant. The party favours Euroscepticism, German nationalism and national conservatism. These ideals manifest themselves in calls for tighter immigration controls and the adoption of an anti-Islam position, which led in part to the German domestic intelligence agency’s decision to classify the AfD as a suspected extremist organization. (Lara, 2026). According to Germany’s Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (BfV), the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the “ethnicity-and ancestry-based conception of people that predominates within the party is not compatible with the free democratic order” citing “xenophobic, anti-minority, Islamophobic and anti-Muslim statements made by leading party officials” as the reasons behind this classification (Janjevic, 2025).

Nonetheless, the AfD party continues to strengthen its position in Germany’s eastern states: the party currently polls above its share of electoral support achieved in 2021, paving the way for government without the need of coalition partners. If the AfD can reproduce these results on a national scale, Germany would see its first far right administration since the Second World War (The Guardian, 2026).

The Turning Point

Germany’s major political parties have pledged formally and informally to turn down any cooperation with – or legislative dependence on – parties on the far right (LyncMe, 2026). Despite this pledge, known as the firewall (Brandmauer), the AfD’s momentum has brought Germany’s political margins into the national spotlight. The party recognises a divide between citizens and those in power, whom it considers to be out of touch with community sentiment. Much of the party’s present popularity is attributable to its ability to frame political, economic and social concerns as part of a broader narrative depicting the perceived failures of successive German governments to secure the country’s borders, maintain economic stability, preserve cultural values, and safeguard Germany’s sovereignty in foreign policy.

The AfD’s resounding victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election on 6 September 2026 is a warning sign. Despite falling shy of an absolute majority, the party attracted 43.8% of the vote, double that of five years ago (Sky News, 2026).

Unless mainstream parties address the political and economic conditions boosting the AfD’s popularity, the latter’s accession to federal government could be on the horizon. Recent polling trends suggest the party is garnering 27.7% support nationally. Across federal states, the party’s population-weighted average support level stands at 22.6% (this figure is 19.7% for the former West German states, and 34.8% in the former East German states). The party’s highest current polls are in the federal states of Saxony (42%), Saxony-Anhalt (41.7%) and Thuringia (40%). In contrast, the party’s lowest support levels are in Hamburg, where it is polling at 12% (DAWUM, n.d.).

In the same way a house develops cracks over time, political taboos in Germany may slowly become obsolete. Defending democracy does not imply turning a blind eye to public concerns; nor does it imply painting all AfD supporters with the same brush. The AfD is likely to wield further influence by restructuring the parameters of political discourse and reshaping government priorities. Whereas it continues to voice legitimate public concerns, supporting the party’s views that undermine or threaten democracy compromises constitutional principles, adding one crack at a time.

Conclusion

The AfD’s influence may foreshadow its accession to power, transcending Germany’s traditional political structures. Domestic issues like immigration, economic concerns, public dissatisfaction with mainstream political parties, and political discord within the country, have fuelled the party’s rise and its consolidation of political influence. Geopolitical developments like the European debt crisis (eurozone crisis) and Germany’s bailout policies laid the groundwork for the party’s formation, Angela Merkel’s policy in the 2015 refugee crisis reoriented the party’s priorities toward immigration. These crises significantly increased the party’s public support and reshaped Germany’s political discourse.

Sovereignty is determined by the state’s ability to protect its people through effective governance and international cooperation. A government’s power, without democratic checks and balances, due regard for human dignity, and international legal obligations, ceases to be a source of protection. Given Germany’s current political circumstances, is the AfD likely to form the next government? What might this development mean for the EU and beyond?

References

DAWUM. (n.d.). AfD: Neueste Umfragewerte in aktuellen Wahlumfragen und im Wahltrend. Retrieved September 5, 2026, from https://dawum.de/AfD/

Janjevic, D. (2025, May 2). German AfD party labeled “extremist” by intelligence agency. Deutsche Welle. https://www.dw.com/en/german-afd-party-labeled-extremist-by-domestic-intelligence-agency/a-72413346

Lara. (2026, May 19). What is the AfD party in Germany and what does it believe? Euro Socialists. https://www.eurosocialists.org/what-is-the-afd-party-in-germany-and-what-does-it-believe/

LyncMe. (2026, January 20). The “Brandmauer” strategy: Why German political stability depends on “the firewall”. https://www.lync.me/blog/887/germany-politics-brandmauer-firewall-stability

The Guardian. (2026, August 30). The Guardian view on the rise of Germany’s AfD: Mainstream parties must deliver a bolder response. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/aug/30/the-guardian-view-on-the-rise-of-germanys-afd-mainstream-parties-must-deliver-a-bolder-response

Sky News. (2026, September 7). Saxony-Anhalt election results live: Musk congratulates far-right AfD—as Holocaust survivors react. https://news.sky.com/story/saxony-anhalt-election-results-live-far-right-afd-aim-for-absolute-majority-to-breach-germanys-political-firewall-13582321