A Possible Succession Crisis for the Left-Wing in Brazil
As Brazilians anticipate the results of the October 2026 election, Brazil is at a crossroads between current left-wing ideology and right-wing policies. Will President Lula continue to reign over Brazil or will Flávio Bolsonaro usher in a new era of political change?
Brazil’s next election will take place on the 4th of October and its left-wing’s main candidate, President Lula, is facing Bolsonaro again. Only this time, the right-wing candidate is Flávio Bolsonaro and not his father, Jair Bolsonaro. Polls about the intention of voters indicate that Lula was ahead of all the candidates during the first round while Flávio Bolsonaro came not so far behind, with around 5% less of possible votes (G1, 2026). For the second round, there was a technical tie, with Bolsonaro 2% ahead (G1, 2026).
This current scenario is similar to what happened back in 2022, when Jair Bolsonaro, ex-president and father of Flávio Bolsonaro, competed against Lula for the presidential office.
The path for Lula’s reelection seems clear, since he is ahead on the intention of votes and has already faced a similar opponent four years ago. But, if Lula wins the election in 2026, he won’t be able to be a candidate in 2030 because the Brazilian Constitution allows only one reelection in a row. And if he loses the election, he may not be a candidate in four years because he will already be 85 years old and would need to finish his mandate at 89. This is a situation that is similar to the one faced by President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden in the previous US elections. Out of this scenario rises the discussion about a possible crisis for the replacement of Lula as the major representative of Brazil’s left-wing party.
For more than 40 years, Lula has been the central figure of the PT Workers Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores in Portuguese). Since the establishment of this party in 1980, Lula competed in six different elections (1989, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006 and 2022), winning the last three of them. This means that, since the re-establishment of democracy in Brazil, Lula did not participate in the elections on only three occasions (2010, 2014, and 2018). Even in the occasions when he was not running for president, he was still present in the propaganda for Dilma and Fernando Haddad, which arguably showed an indication of the dependency of the left-wing on his leadership. According to Rafael Favetti (2025),
The government has become dependent on the figure of Lula—a serious mistake, given Brazil’s size and complexity. The left’s social web cannot compete digitally with that of the right, and there is an excessive communication dependency on the president. Lula, for his part, does not always get it right. This generates a feeling of inaction perceived even by voters who supported him in 2022 (Translated from Portuguese).
The challenge for future successors is that voter loyalty is tied to Lula as an individual, rather than to his political party. The legitimation among voters depends on the capacity to produce identification with the politician in a fragmented political context (Sampaio, 2026).
Back in 2010, Dilma Rousseff won the election as the successor of Lula, who led Brazil from 2002 to 2009. Back then, her propaganda was rooted in Lula’s indication for the presidential office. Hence, she was appointed as the trusted candidate chosen to carry forward the legacy of the outgoing president. Dilma’s first two years in government had the approval of the majority of the population, leading to a second term in 2014 (BBC, 2015). The collapse of her government started at that time. After a few years of rising economic concerns and a loss of public support, she started to lack Congress’ trust and could not coordinate her presence among allies. In 2016, she faced an impeachment and ended the 14-year-long term of PT in Brazil’s presidential office (Portela, 2026). Even though she was impeached, PT had never lost an election in the 21st century during that period.
It was only in 2018 that Fernando Haddad lost PT’s first election in the 21st century. At the time, he faced Jair Bolsonaro, who was the face of the Brazilian right-wing as it was searching for political renewal. Bolsonaro managed to win the elections after Lula was withdrawn due to a corruption scandal (TSE, 2018). Although he was withdrawn, his image was still so powerful that polls showed he would win if he had the chance to face Jair Bolsonaro back then (G1, 2018). To seek revenge, he won the election against Bolsonaro in 2022.
Currently, few possible options could be viable as Lula’s successor. Major participants in Brazil’s current government fill the possibilities, but Haddad may be the strongest option. The main issue is that Haddad still lacks leadership, according to an interview with Lula this year (Santos and Behnke, 2026). The scenario may lead to another term of PT. However, the concerns with his succession bring challenges that the left-wing in Brazil must deal with as soon as the next election ends, since a four-year term may not be enough for them.
References
BBC (2015). De campeã de popularidade a 62% de rejeição: Seis momentos-chave no governo Dilma. BBC Brasil. 18 March 2015. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/noticias/2015/03/150318_dilma_aprovacao_reprovacao_cc (Accessed 13 September 2026).
G1 (2018). Pesquisa Datafolha: Lula, 39%; Bolsonaro, 19%; Marina, 8%; Alckmin, 6%; Ciro, 5%. G1. 22 August 2018. Available at: https://g1.globo.com/google/amp/politica/eleicoes/2018/eleicao-em-numeros/noticia/2018/08/22/pesquisa-datafolha-lula-39-bolsonaro-19-marina-8-alckmin-6-ciro-5.ghtml (Accessed 13 September 2026).
G1 (2026). Quaest, 1º turno: Lula, 36%; Flávio Bolsonaro, 31%; Cury, 7%; Renan, 4%; Caiado, 4%; Zema, 1%. G1. 14 September 2026. Available at: https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2026/pesquisa-eleitoral/noticia/2026/09/14/quaest-pesquisa-presidente-primeiro-turno-14-setembro.ghtml (Accessed 14 September 2026).
G1 (2026). Quaest, 2º turno: Flávio Bolsonaro, 42%; Lula, 40%. G1. 14 September 2026. Available at: https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2026/pesquisa-eleitoral/noticia/2026/09/14/quaest-2-turno-setembro.ghtml (Accessed 14 September 2026).
Lavetti, Rafael (2025). A entropia de Lula 3. Congresso em Foco. 06 June 2025. Available at: https://www.congressoemfoco.com.br/artigo/109192/a-entropia-de-lula-3 (Accessed 13 September 2026).
Portela, Maria Eduarda (2026). Dez anos depois do impeachment de Dilma, o que dizem protagonistas que participaram do processo. Jota. 31 August 2026. Available at: https://www.jota.info/executivo/dez-anos-depois-do-impeachment-de-dilma-o-que-dizem-protagonistas-que-participaram-do-processo (Accessed 13 September 2026).
Sampaio, Artur (2026). O pós-Lula e o desafio da legitimidade política no Brasil. Nexo Jornal. 01 August 2026. Available at: https://www.nexojornal.com.br/presidente-lula-governo-depois-de-lula-politica-eleicoes-2026-2030 (Accessed 13 September 2026).
Santos, Poliana; Behnke, Emily (2026). Lula cita possíveis sucessores e diz que Haddad “precisa de mais”. CNN. 14 August 2026. Available at: https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/lula-cita-possiveis-sucessores-e-diz-que-haddad-precisa-de-mais/ (Accessed 13 September 2026).
TSE (2018). TSE indefere pedido de registro de candidatura de Lula à Presidência da República. Tribunal Superior Eleitoral. 01 September 2018. Available at: https://www.tse.jus.br/comunicacao/noticias/2018/Setembro/tse-indefere-pedido-de-registro-de-candidatura-de-lula-a-presidencia-da-republica (Accessed 13 September 2026).
