From Gaza to the Gulf: Political Risk Fallout of Israel’s Strike on Qatar
Israel’s unprecedented strike on Qatar in September 2025 has reshaped the political and security dynamics of the Middle East, injecting new volatility into an already fragile environment. By targeting a residential compound in Doha on September 9th—reportedly to hit Hamas negotiators—Israel not only escalated its campaign against the group but also violated the sovereignty of a Gulf monarchy that has long served as a mediator in the region’s conflicts. The attack killed six people, including a Qatari security official, and injured several others, prompting Doha to condemn the strike as a direct assault on its sovereignty and diplomatic role (Federman & Gambrell, 2025).
Regional recalibration
The immediate response came through regional institutions. On September 15th, Qatar hosted an emergency Arab-Islamic summit where the Gulf Cooperation Council vowed to activate its joint defence mechanism, affirming that “an attack on one is an attack on all” (Jamal, 2025). Yet the summit revealed the limits of Arab consensus. While the communique condemned Israel and pledged solidarity, it stopped short of announcing binding military or economic retaliation, reflecting the difficulty of balancing symbolic unity with strategic caution.
The strike has profound implications for regional threat perceptions. For decades, Gulf states have relied on the U.S. security umbrella to deter external threats. Qatar, in particular, hosts the al-Udeid Air Base, the largest U.S. military installation in the region, and was designated a Major Non-NATO Ally in 2022. That Israel struck Doha despite these arrangements raises doubts across the Gulf about the credibility of U.S. security guarantees. Analysts argue that Israel’s ability to carry out the attack suggests Washington either tacitly tolerated it or was unable to prevent it, leading Gulf leaders to question what American protection means in practice (Cafiero, 2025).
This uncertainty is already pushing regional actors toward recalibration. The GCC has reopened discussions about strengthening its collective security framework, including missile defence, intelligence sharing, and early warning systems. Egypt has gone further: in a sharp rhetorical shift, Cairo now describes Israel as an “enemy” and has floated the idea of a new Arab military alliance modelled on NATO, with Egypt at its centre (Aboudouh, 2025). Such rhetoric underscores the possibility of deeper regional realignments if Israel continues to extend its military operations into the Gulf.
A second political risk lies in the erosion of mediation channels. Qatar has played a central role in brokering negotiations between Israel, Hamas, and international stakeholders, hosting talks on ceasefires, humanitarian access, and prisoner exchanges. The strike on Doha undermines this capacity, sending a message that mediators themselves are not immune from attack. Some analysts contend that by targeting a Hamas team in the midst of U.S.-backed ceasefire discussions, Israel sought to derail diplomacy and tilt the conflict toward a military resolution (Aboudouh, 2025; Vij & Karacsony, 2025). The risk that other states may now hesitate to host negotiations threatens to weaken one of the few mechanisms capable of containing escalation in Gaza.
Long-term consequences
The long-term implications are manifold. First, the strike expands the geographical scope of the conflict. For decades, Israeli military operations were largely confined to Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. By striking in Doha, Israel has signalled its willingness to act against any Hamas officials in the MENA region. This spillover risk now looms over the Gulf, increasing the political costs associated with perceived inaction. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already warned that other states could face similar consequences if they shelter Hamas leaders, amplifying fears of further escalation (Cafiero, 2025).
Second, normalisation efforts face renewed strain. The Abraham Accords, which established ties between Israel and states like the UAE and Bahrain, now face public backlash. While a full reversal remains unlikely, governments may choose to downgrade relations or suspend aspects of cooperation, especially in the military and security domains (Vij & Karacsony, 2025). The United States’s role in facilitating normalisation has increasingly become a detriment for Gulf regimes, as public favourability of the United States has eroded over its role in supporting Israel’s strategy in Gaza, with the strike in Qatar the latest in a series of escalating attacks. The political risk lies not only in bilateral relations with Israel but also in the credibility of regional economic diversification plans, which rely on stable external relations.
Third, the strike challenges international norms of sovereignty and the safety of mediators. If mediating states are treated as legitimate targets, the risks to diplomacy multiply. Legal and institutional frameworks may thus become more prominent, as the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the Arab League, and the United Nations are under pressure to reassert the principles of sovereignty and non-intervention (Jamal, 2025). Yet these bodies’ ability to enforce such norms is limited, which may fuel further instability.
Beyond the region, political risk factors deeply affect the broader international community. For the United States, credibility is at stake. Allies may question whether U.S. commitments are reliable, especially if Washington is seen as unwilling to restrain Israeli actions. This perception may accelerate Gulf hedging strategies, including deeper security ties with China or Russia. For international investors, the risks of instability in the Gulf have risen. Economic diversification programs such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and Qatar’s post-World Cup development agenda depend on a secure environment; the perception that Gulf cities themselves could be targeted introduces new geopolitical risks (Cafiero, 2025). For international mediators and NGOs, the strike signals that even diplomatic spaces are vulnerable, complicating future conflict resolution efforts.
Uncertainty persists over whether the GCC’s rhetorical unity will translate into practical defence cooperation, whether the U.S. will apply pressure on Israel to restrain further strikes, and whether other Arab states hosting Hamas officials could be targeted. The weakening of mediation channels also risks prolonging the Gaza conflict, exacerbating humanitarian crises, and raising the potential for unrest in Arab societies that are already under pressure from public anger.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Israeli strike on Doha represents far more than a tactical attack on Hamas. It marks a watershed moment for regional security assumptions, alliance structures, and international norms. It forces Gulf states to reconsider their reliance on external guarantees, strains the diplomatic frameworks underpinning normalisation with Israel, and raises the risk of both escalation and institutional breakdown. For policymakers and analysts, this episode underscores the need to expand risk models beyond Gaza itself, accounting for the ripple effects across the Gulf, where political risk has entered a dangerous new phase.
References
Aboudouh, A. (2025). Egypt now sees Israel as an imminent threat. [online] Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank. Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/09/egypt-now-sees-israel-imminent-threat.
Arab Center Washington DC (2024). Arab Public Opinion about Israel’s War on Gaza. [online] Arab Center Washington DC. Available at: https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/arab-public-opinion-about-israels-war-on-gaza/ [Accessed 20 Sep. 2025].
Cafiero, G. (2025). How Israel’s strike on Doha is forcing a Gulf security reckoning. [online] Atlantic Council. Available at: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/how-israels-strike-on-doha-is-forcing-a-gulf-security-reckoning/.
Federman, J. and Gambrell, J. (2025). Israeli strike in Qatar targets Hamas leaders as they weigh Gaza ceasefire proposal. [online] AP News. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/qatar-explosion-doha-e319dd51b170161372442831a8023db5 [Accessed 20 Sep. 2025].
Jamal, U. (2025). GCC to activate defence mechanism; Doha summit slams Israel’s Qatar attack. [online] Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/16/gcc-vows-joint-defence-but-arab-islamic-summit-short-on-concrete-action [Accessed 20 Sep. 2025].
Vij, S. and Karacsony, E. (2025). Israel–Qatar Crisis: Regional Reactions and Recalibrations. [online] orfonline.org. Available at: https://www.orfonline.org/research/israel-qatar-crisis-regional-reactions-and-recalibrations.
