Lebanon’s Fragile State Faces Hezbollah’s Defiance

The Current Push for Disarmament

The debate over Hezbollah’s weapons is not new, but recent regional dynamics have shifted the calculus. Following the 12-day Israel-Iran confrontation earlier this year and subsequent Israeli strikes on Hezbollah outposts, the United States has pressed Lebanon to adopt a roadmap for Hezbollah’s disarmament by year’s end (Bassam, 2025). This plan reportedly involves reciprocal Israeli withdrawal from disputed territories, making it the most concrete disarmament framework to date.

Domestically, Lebanese political factions are divided. Some disarmament is necessary for restoring state sovereignty and ending Hezbollah’s parallel military authority, while others warn it could destabilise Lebanon’s fragile sectarian balance (Deeb, 2025). Hezbollah itself has resisted, urging Beirut to “take a step back” from the plan, framing the initiative as a Western-imposed dictate that undermines Lebanon’s independence (Homsi & Prentis, 2025).

Hezbollah’s Postwar Strategy

Iran’s shifting missile strategy is central to understanding Hezbollah’s posture. Facing intensified Israeli targeting, Tehran has reportedly recalibrated its regional military assets, deepening its military partnership with China to reduce dependency on Hezbollah as its frontline proxy (Tagreeb, 2025). This leaves Hezbollah more isolated from Iran’s deterrence strategy than before, creating an opening for its opponents, but it also incentivises Hezbollah to resist disarmament to maintain relevance.

Hezbollah leaders have argued that surrendering arms would expose Lebanon to Israeli aggression and weaken the country’s bargaining position in ongoing regional disputes (Ravid, 2025). The group continues to frame its arsenal as a “resistance force” necessary for national defence, a narrative that has long resonated with parts of Lebanon’s Shi’a community.

Domestic Political Risks

At the national level, efforts to disarm Hezbollah threaten to reopen old wounds in Lebanon’s sectarian system. Hezbollah is not merely a militia; it is a powerful political party embedded in government institutions. Many supporters perceive moves against its military wing as attacks on their community’s political representation (Chaayto & Yan, 2025). This perception risks sparking unrest and violent reprisals, particularly if disarmament is seen as externally dictated.

Furthermore, Lebanon’s state institutions are weak, plagued by corruption, and lack the capacity to enforce such a sweeping transition. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) would likely be tasked with overseeing disarmament, yet the LAF’s cohesion could be jeopardised if soldiers sympathetic to Hezbollah refuse to participate or if Hezbollah fighters integrate with the LAF, creating factions. A breakdown within the security apparatus would leave Lebanon vulnerable to chaos and factional violence.

International and Regional Dimensions

Externally, Lebanon faces contradictory pressures. The United States and European powers view disarmament as essential to stabilising Lebanon and curbing Iranian influence (Ward, 2025). Israel has tied potential territorial concessions to progress on Hezbollah’s weapons, further internationalising the issue (Bassem, 2025). However, Iran continues to back Hezbollah politically and financially, warning that forced disarmament would destabilise the region (Christou, 2025).

The internationalisation of the disarmament push introduces additional risks. A breakdown of the process could trigger renewed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, especially if Israeli strikes intensify to preempt Hezbollah’s remaining arsenal. Meanwhile, foreign involvement risks undermining Lebanon’s sovereignty, fueling the perception that Beirut is capitulating to external dictates rather than acting in its own national interest (Alexander, 2025).

Economic and Social Fallout

Beyond the political and military dimensions, Lebanon’s fragile economy stands to suffer from instability linked to the disarmament debate. Any outbreak of violence could scare off desperately needed foreign investment and aid. Moreover, Hezbollah operates extensive social service networks, including schools, hospitals, and welfare programs. Disarming the group without establishing alternative structures could leave large segments of Lebanon’s Shi’a population economically disenfranchised, deepening sectarian grievances (Langlois, 2025).

Historical Precedents and Lessons

Past attempts to integrate or sideline Hezbollah have met with limited success. After the 2006 war, international pressure led to UN resolutions demanding Hezbollah’s disarmament, but the group emerged politically stronger. Likewise, domestic initiatives have repeatedly faltered in the face of Hezbollah’s entrenched power and Iran’s backing (Alexander, 2025). The current push is different in scope and urgency, but history suggests that coercive efforts without a comprehensive political settlement risk failure.

Navigating a Dangerous Path

Lebanon’s effort to disarm Hezbollah is one of the most consequential political gambles in its modern history. On the one hand, successful disarmament could restore state sovereignty, limit Iranian influence, and reduce the risk of devastating wars with Israel. On the other hand, a poorly managed or externally imposed process could fracture Lebanon’s political order, destabilise its economy, and ignite new cycles of violence.

Ultimately, the success of this initiative depends on building a credible political consensus within Lebanon while striking a balance between external demands. Without such a framework, disarming Hezbollah risks becoming not a step toward stability, but a catalyst for deeper turmoil in a country already teetering on the edge.

Bibliography

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