Chinese Expansion in the Indian Ocean and Ambition for Dominance Over the Global Economy

Introduction

As an important trade route, the Indian Ocean is a strategic location to protect a country’s economic security.  China has set out to achieve its geopolitical ambitions and assert its dominance over the IOR (Indian Ocean Region).  China has developed the world’s largest fleet of research vessels to survey the Indian Ocean and collect valuable data for commercial and military operations (Funaiole et al., 2024).  Over the past four years, China has conducted thousands of operations, and 64 active research vessels were identified (Ibid).  Many of the vessels have dual-use capabilities and can provide the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) with critical data for submarine operations (Ibid).    Along with China’s ambition to expand its naval forces, these research and survey missions are likely an effort to grow its influence in the IOR and promote its BRI (Belt and Road Initiative). 

Economic Strategy & Belt and Road Initiative

 In January 2024, China was permitted by the Maldives government to dock in its port during a time of tension between the Maldives and India (Francis, 2024).  India and China have been competing over the Maldives to control the Indian Ocean (Ibid).  While India considers the Maldives to be in its sphere of influence, China has made the Maldives a partner in its BRI (Ibid).  Indian troops were stationed in the Maldives, but since the Maldives president, Mohamed Muizzu’s visit to China, he has requested a meeting with Indian officials to have them leave (Ibid).  The visit to the Maldives and the investment in infrastructure projects on the island nation exemplify China’s strategy to expand its naval forces and strengthen its economic security (Kutcher, 2024).  China is setting up supply chain checkpoints as a way to defend against countries like the U.S. who want to restrict China’s access to their market (Stutter, 2024).  China is also seeking to increase the reliance of other countries on China by offering or withholding economic access to certain markets (Ibid).  This strategy, via the BRI, enables China to gain access to foreign markets while limiting access to its market (Ibid).  China’s naval presence in the IOR and its control of ports at strategic island nations would likely give China the ability to disrupt trade flows of adversarial countries, increasing costs of shipping companies and possibly damaging their reputation.  A domino effect could take place, driving up the cost of goods of a population and creating political instability.

Chinese Activity in Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ)

A new form of hybrid warfare is emerging that involves mapping the ocean floor in international waters as well as exclusive economic zones of countries in a region (Brewster, 2024).  A Chinese research vessel spent three weeks mapping the waters just outside the EEZ of the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and India (Ibid).  According to Indian Navy Chief Admiral Karambir Singh, Chinese research and fishing vessels have been spotted in the Indian EEZ (Rajagopalan, 2021).  China has also been known to be involved with illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing (Alberts, 2024).  Reports of IUU fishing have been in coastal waters of West Africa and around EEZs of Latin American countries but a recent report by a U.K. non-profit emphasizes these activities, including human rights violations, taking place in the Indian Ocean (Ibid).  Chinese activities in EEZs also pose a threat to a country’s fisheries and drain a natural resource that some countries’ populations rely on (Ibid).  China is likely trying to secure resources like natural gas to fix their energy crisis.  There is a roughly even chance that countries that have their natural resource exploited and water polluted by China will resort to piracy and maritime terrorism.

Conclusion

The growing Chinese activity in the IOR threatens the balance of power and promotes their access to resources. It increases their ability to gather valuable intelligence for submarine operations, decreasing another country’s deterrence and increasing the risk of an attack by China.  China is entrapping these smaller countries that are becoming partners in its BRI by investing in infrastructure projects, very likely indebting them to China.  China will very likely be able to bribe and coerce these smaller nations into letting Chinese military station there or use their ports for Chinese commercial or espionage activities. 

Bibliography

Funaiole, M., Hart, B. Powers-Riggs, A. (2024). Surveying the Seas: China’s Dual-Use Research Operations in the Indian Ocean. Available from: https://features.csis.org/hiddenreach/china-indian-ocean-research-vessels/

Francis, K. (2024). Maldives gives port clearance to a Chinese ship. The move could inflame a dispute with India. Available from: https://apnews.com/article/maldives-india-china-research-ship-0c12d6292f7709e72e1e1ce52e691828

Kutcher, K. (2024). China in the Indo-Pacific: Alfred Mahan and the Island Chains. Available from: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/china-in-the-indo-pacific-alfred-mahan-and-the-island-chains/

Sutter, K. (2024). China’s View of Its Economic Sphere of Influence, Economic Security, and Trading Networks. Available from: https://strategicspace.nbr.org/chinas-view-of-its-economic-sphere-of-influence-economic-security-and-trading-networks/

Brewster, D. (2024). Mapping the oceans is the new front in the battle for influence in the Indian Ocean. Available from: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/mapping-oceans-new-front-battle-influence-indian-ocean

Rajagopalan, R. (2021). The Indian Ocean is important to China because Chinese trade and energy resources transit this route. Available from: https://www.orfonline.org/research/countering-chinese-assertiveness-indias-changing-posture-indian-ocean

Alberts, E. (2024). Report: Illegal fishing and labor abuse rampant in China’s Indian Ocean fleet. Available from: https://news.mongabay.com/2024/06/report-illegal-fishing-and-labor-abuse-rampant-in-chinas-indian-ocean-fleet/

Welch et al. (2022). Hotspots of unseen fishing vessels. Available from: https://globalfishingwatch.org/data-download/datasets/public-welch-et-al-disabling-events:v20221102