The Gas Pipe was Mightier than the Bomb
The rippling effect of the European Transit System shutdown for Ukraine, Russia and the security of Europe’s future
With the European Transit System’s (ETS) last shutdown, we witness a symbolic and tangible end to current European affairs involving the countries responsible for its maintenance—namely Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe.
The ETS, by circumstantial causes, became a safety mechanism that provided security guarantees to the post-Soviet region. Through this pipeline traveled the only element keeping European interests at the negotiating table: for a recovering Russia, which recognized its vital importance in safeguarding against financial crisis; and for Europe, which saw it as a cheap and effective way to extract dividends from its defeated adversary. This underappreciated phenomenon in international politics will remain a notable mention in history books, standing as one of the key catalysts for the conflict we see unfolding today.
A conflict that will harm our way of life and disrupt the rules of the game for the region’s major players. The prescription for the future is the close monitoring of the changes in rhetoric, political goals, and rule-building that will emerge in the coming year. This year will be an eventful chapter in history—one that began not with a dramatic explosion, but with the quiet turn of a gas valve, symbolizing a shift in geopolitical power.
