The Arab Spring: A Stark Myth for Democratic Aspirations?
Before time stuck at 2010, it was observed that democracies and market oriented economies spreading everywhere in the world except the Arab Middle East. Corruption, misuse of power, ossified governments, lack of democratic representation, socio-economic disparities, unemployment, and injustice were on their peak and somewhat identical in all the countries in the region. A Tunisian street vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, made himself self-immolated on 17th December 2010 outside a government office against the authoritarian Tunisian government.
Many Tunisians protested against corrupted regime and its autocratic president, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. In January 2011, Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia. These protests were circulated globally with the blessing of Social Media, especially Facebook. Social Media became the great medium for solidarity. Later, these pro-democratic protests spread its tentacles in Arab-speaking countries in North Africa and the Middle East. After few days, protests broke out in Bahrain, where the demand was to release political prisoners and bring human rights reforms whereas in Jordan and Kuwait, due to massive public pressure, parliament was dissolved. There was a government crackdown in Libya where civil war boiled over. Yemen also saw traumatic protests which erupted in a political crisis and forced its president to resign.
Revolts which started in Tunisia paved their pattern in different ways across the region. Mohammed Bouazizi never had an intention of starting a revolution. But he indeed inspired people around the region to seek social changes in form of demonstrations because his problems were not unique at all. That’s why he became the force behind the protests. Demands varied from the legitimate constitutional rights, limited government powers, and social justice to open participation in decision-making. There was a sudden rise of progressives, new young social activists, trade unionists and pro-democratic politicians in the region. There was a huge unrest and dissatisfaction among frustrated Arab youth who had vociferous demands that were challenging for authoritarian governments. People needed accountability from their respective governments. In 2010, there was 23.4 percent of youth unemployment rate in the Arab region which became the main cause of uprisings. However, the main cause of unemployment was the poor implementation of neo-liberal economic policies. The Arab regimes were somewhat incapable of nation-building with strong economies. There were extremely weak labor markets with barely any employment opportunities which differs country wise in various respects. Tunisia was better in combating discrimination against women than any other country in the region. Tunisia had a better education system than Egypt. There were few main factors which lead the transformation like in education, access to information through electronic channels which certainly made people more aware of the current political situation of their respective states. Social media platforms created many public spaces for social organizations. For example, after 2011, T-shirts with Facebook logo on it were sold on Tahir square, in Egypt, as the emblem of their revolution. The slogan which was raised in the revolution was “bread, dignity, social justice and freedom”, primarily economically motivated. There was demand of better governance and fairer distribution of economic opportunities.The feeling of agony and frustration among youth was genuine. On the one side there were political elites who wanted modern society and economy, and on the other side were the social conservatives who wanted religion to come forward if any social liberalization happens. One thing which was common was the favoring to religious sources and authorities which means no secularism.
A single man did what decades of attacks or pogroms by Jihadi groups could not do i.e., toppling incumbent governments. After the 2001 attacks in the United States, West needed an explanation from the Arab World, and George W. Bush administration made a priority of democratizing the Middle Eastern countries. The foreseeable future of those countries was very challenging. Turning point comes after 10 years as a paramount opportunity for democratic aspirations. New politicians were being uncovered with a lot of hope who never believed that one day they might hold power. These political changes came forth with many challenges, objections and threats.
Geopolitics
The 2011 Arab Spring certainly changed the geopolitical dynamics. The anti-government demonstrations erupted in Syria in 2011, as part of the Arab Spring. Iran allied with the Bashar-al-Assad’s regime whereas Saudi Arabia supported the opposition, backed by United States. Assad is from Shia minority sect and rules over a majority Sunni state. So Iran wants to keep the Assad’s regime in power in any case. Iran has been assisting the Syrian regime with weapons and training while Saudi Arabia backed the rebels and military defectors. Major outbreaks of violence in several parts of Syria caused Syrians to flee to Iraq and other neighboring countries like Jordan, Lebanon, and Egypt. Proxy wars have turned into a devastating humanitarian crisis; 6 million Syrians displaced, 5 million are refugees, and more than 5 million have been killed. Bashar-a-Assad still holds the power in Syria which marks the Saudi’s failure in the sub-region. Then there is Yemen where Saudi-led coalition is still engaged in a conflict with Iranian-backed Houthi rebels who are shias. This conflict has led to the World’s largest humanitarian crisis. The human suffering in Middle East region is catastrophic.
Rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran has a major role in on-going civil war in Syria and Yemen. Animosity between two countries kicked off after 1979 Iranian revolution which made ultimate chaos in the region. The two main ideological powerhouses of the region have been waging wars for the regional dominance which set-off shia-sunni conflict across the Middle East.Their rivalry had severe consequences, in Syria as well as in Yemen, as several wars and huge humanitarian crisis. Before 1979, Iran and Saudi Arabia used to share good diplomatic ties because both the countries had western influence. The 1979 attack on the Grand Mosque of Mecca intensified the Wahhabism in the Kingdom. Iran dominated by the vision of Shia belief, also influenced by the thought of Ayatollah Khomeini who returned from 15 years of exile in 1979. His return was the turning point in the Saudi-Iranian relationship. Khomeini was hostile towards Western influenced governments in the region like Saudi Arabia, an important ally of United States. There were certain CIA reports which claimed that Iran was making deliberate attempts for manipulating the neighboring countries with their Islamic ideology. This warier circumstance made Western world alert especially United States. In 1981, GCC i.e., Gulf Cooperation Council was created as an alliance between six Gulf monarchies against perceived Iranian threat. Then in Iran-Iraq war, Saudi Arabia supported Iraq with military aid. Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invaded Iran, being skeptical that their Shia majority might get influenced by Khomeini’s revolution and anti-US demonstrations.
The Western government and media labeled uprisings as pro-democratic protests and revolts against corrupt dictatorial regimes. But the reality is the Arab Spring was never much about only democratic revolt. Considering the Arab Spring definitely included some liberal-democratic groups but some believe that these revolts were the representation against the socialist, pan-Arabism, nationalist, military regimes that had come to powers in 1950s and onwards. It basically goes back to the time when Sykes-Picot agreement was signed which then made modern borders of the Middle East with too little consideration to ethnicity, religion, culture or historical association. Instead they were set on the basis of the oil and other resources.
The Arab Spring’s aftermath
The most annihilating consequences of the Arab Spring are civil wars which led to massive humanitarian crisis; destabilize the region, and developing the most of the area into training groups for large numbers of jihadists. Arab Spring failed as an inspiration to bring democracies instead gave civil wars and regional divisions. Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Somalia and Syria are going through civil wars and huge humanitarian crisis as life in those countries is nasty, brutish and short. As Thomas Hobbes, an English philosopher, said “No arts; No letters; No society; and which is worst of all, continual fear and danger of violent death; and the life of man, solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short.” As Tunisia, Bahrain and Egypt had some hope that they might fulfill democratic aspiration one day with better life and public participation instead it seems as another autocracy. There is fragile and incompetent political life in Lebanon and Algeria after their distressing civil war. The Comoros, Djibouti and Mauritania also experienced intensified and violent regime change. Palestinians are still under Israeli occupation and their aspiration for better life, equality, flexible society and statehood remain as ambiguous as ever. As of now the autocracies of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, the Qatar which oil-rich countries appear stable. But countries’ stipulated socio-economic characteristics are based on religious extremism. Only Jordan, Morocco and Oman show some semblance of normalcy but still not as such potent governance. The protests in Jordan and Morocco were not as intensified as in Yemen, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria and Libya.
Economic stagnation and political chaos are the major outcomes of the horrendous situation in the region. Extremist groups have a paramount impact on economic growth in the region. Tourism industry has been badly hit due to the current situation. There are high rates of unemployment as well which are rapidly increasing. Decline in employment rate also shows why youngsters in the region are holding guns. Also, political instability goes parallel to it which has created space for Jihadist groups to grow in the area. Those groups are gradually emerging as multinational jihadist organizations that are establishing franchises in multiple countries.
State failure
Political instability heavily contributes to the rise in terrorist activities. Reasons why terrorism persists in the Middle East region are poverty, unemployment, lack of education, corruption, etc. Inquisitiveness about how these terrorists’ organizations make money is legitimate. Most of their revenue depends on taxing civilians, extorting business, kidnapping for ransom, drug trafficking, illegal trading of oil, etc. There is a very complex relation between refugees and terrorism. Today, Europe has become very skeptical about refugees or asylum seekers fleeing to Europe. There are threats prevailing that IS (or ISIS or Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) uses migrants as psychological weapon which can be form of radicalized Muslim entering Europe for causing terror. Extremist groups mostly recruit asylum-seekers.
In 2016-2017, there were several terrorist attacks happened in Germany and its neighboring countries linked to ISIS. In 2016, a 17-year-old asylum seeker, named Riaz Khan Ahmadzai, attacked people on a train in Wurzburg, Germany. He was suspected to be an Islamic State member and proclaiming that he is a soldier of the Caliphate. Then in July 2016, a 27-year-old Syrian asylum-seeker, Mohammad Daleel, executed a suicide terrorist attack outside a wine-bar in Ansbach, Germany. Daleel turned out to be in contact with an IS member in Saudi Arabia and later IS took the responsibility of the attack. In December 2016, a Tunisian citizen and a failed asylum-seeker did an attack in Berlin. He purposely drove a truck into the Christmas market leaving 12 people dead and many injured. In 2011, he flew from Tunisia to Italy, escaping a prison sentence in Tunisia. Germany authorities tried to deport him back in Tunisia when he applied for asylum under a false name in April 2016. These were few cases of how asylum-seekers are vulnerable of being involved in terrorist activities. Weak states give terrorist organizations, like IS, an opportunity to create favorable conditions for recruitment and violent radicalization. Basically terrorists make the most of “migration flows” as refugees being the most vulnerable ones to radicalize and recruit. Governments become less receptive and responsive to their citizens when it comes to dealing with poverty. And that vacuum is most likely to be filled by non-state organizations. Unemployment and low national income lead state to shake hands with non-state organizations; and form alliance to corroborate state’s survival and continuity. Consequences of poverty in failed state ultimately subject to violent extremism.
Conclusion
There had no distinct ideological motivation after 2010. There was also no clear vision of how an equitable society should be built. There are certain measures desperately required for proper social political structure. Accordingly, these pertain to the establishment of reliable bureaucracy for providing social services especially in health and education, expansion of the security and intelligence services for sustaining conflicts especially with Israel, and establishment of large numbers of public sector companies for generating employment opportunities and subsidizing housing and energy.
