Water as a Weapon: The World’s Most Crucial Resource

One immense problem is governance or rather, the absence of it. Nearly two-thirds of the world’s freshwater crosses national borders, yet more than half of the planet’s 310 international river basins lack cooperative management agreements (Circle of Blue, 2026). Key powers, including the United States and China, have never ratified important policies, such as the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention, and unlike climate change, water has no standing global negotiation process with binding targets or enforcement mechanisms (Circle of Blue, 2026).

Since 2020, the Pacific Institute has recorded 1428 water-related conflict events, spanning all over the world (Pacific Institute, 2026). Despite most of these not being headline “water wars”, typically consisting of infrastructure sabotage, political coercion, and local clashes where water is the trigger, it displays the need for a stronger conversation regarding global water governance to occur.

South Asia: The Indus Treaty on Life Support

Arguably the most legally consequential water crisis in the world today involves two nuclear-armed states, India and Pakistan, and the Indus Waters Treaty. On the 23rd of April 2025, following a militant attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a landmark 1960 agreement that survived wars and was seen as an example of trans-boundary water management (BBC, 2025). Shortly afterwards, India halted the exchange of hydrological data, including critical flood warnings and river flow updates, and suspended the Permanent Indus Commission that had managed the treaty’s implementation (Think Global Health, 2025).

The humanitarian consequences could be enormous. The Indus River Basin is a lifeline for more than 300 million people across both countries, sustaining agriculture, hydropower, and urban water supply (Chatham House, 2026). India’s Home Minister, Amit Shah, previously vowed the treaty would “never” be restored, stating that “Pakistan will be starved of water that it has been getting unjustifiably” (Reuters, 2025). Pakistan responded by declaring that any diversion of its treaty-allocated water would be considered an act of war (Reuters, 2025).

The crisis has since escalated to the United Nations. One year on from the Pahalgam attack, Pakistan has urged the Security Council to compel India to restore the treaty, warning of the grave security, environmental, and humanitarian risks (The Nation, 2026). With there being no signs of a resolution and both governments hardening their positions, the Indus Waters Treaty is at the centre of global water issues.

The Persian Gulf: Water Infrastructure Goes to War

What we are seeing in the Middle East demonstrates what happens when water becomes a military target. When the United States and Israel launched operations against Iran on 28 February 2026, the Gulf’s desalination infrastructure immediately became vulnerable. Desalination fulfills much of the Gulf states’ total water demand, but it is especially crucial for meeting their drinking water needs. Qatar derives 99 percent of its drinking water supplies from its network of desalination facilities, and Bahrain over 90 percent. (CSIS, 2026). For Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, the figures are 90 percent, 86 percent, 70 percent, and 42 percent, respectively. Cities such as Doha, Dubai, Manama, and Kuwait City would not be possible without desalination. (CSIS, 2026).

Within days, desalination facilities in Iran, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates suffered damage from missile and drone strikes. On the 7th and 8th of March, both Iran and Bahrain reported attacks on one of their water desalination plants (The Water Diplomat, 2026). Furthermore, attacks in places like Qeshm Island have forced thousands to use unsafe water sources, significantly increasing the risk of waterborne diseases in local communities (The Water Diplomat, 2026). Any sustained disruption could lead to mass evacuations and a humanitarian disaster regarding basic sanitation and drinkable water.

Unfortunately, the rhetoric has matched the risk. President Trump publicly threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s desalination plants if Tehran refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (Time, 2026). Analysts further warn that any strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor risks radiological contamination of Persian Gulf waters (Al Jazeera, 2026), the very source from which downstream states desalinate their drinking supply. In the Gulf, water and war have become dangerously inseparable.

China’s Silent Chokehold

While bombs fall in the Middle East, China is pursuing a quieter but potentially more far-reaching form of water dominance. Construction on the Medog Dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River began last year, a project that, when complete, will be the largest hydroelectric facility ever built, tripling the output of the Three Gorges Dam (Al Jazeera, 2025).

Located close to the Indian border, India’s concerns extend beyond strategic ones. The dam threatens the fragile Himalayan ecosystem, climate change, deforestation, and soil erosion compound the potential ecological risks, and flash floods or reduced water availability downstream could disrupt water supplies in India and Bangladesh (Policy Circle, 2024). All this heightens fears of dependence on China for this critical resource (Policy Circle, 2024). According to initial studies done by NHPC and Arunachal Pradesh State government, water flow to India can be reduced by up to 80 per cent due to this project (The Geostrata, 2026). Indian authorities have also raised the possibility of the dam being used as leverage or even a weapon, capable of either withholding water to cause drought or potentially releasing vast amounts of water, causing floods in Indian border areas (Policy Circle, 2024).

There is also no treaty governing this river. In February 2026, Bangladesh formally requested information from Beijing about the project’s specifications. China did not formally reply (The Geostrata, 2026). That silence speaks volumes. Without a binding agreement, China retains unilateral control over headwaters that sustain hundreds of millions of people in India and Bangladesh, leverage that grows more powerful the closer to completion of the dam.

Final Thoughts

The Munich Security Conference addressed water as a geopolitical risk for the first time in its 2026 report, noting that weaponisation now occurs through dam control, flow manipulation, and direct targeting of infrastructure (Global Research, 2026). A UN Water Conference is scheduled for December 2026, and whether it produces binding commitments, or merely declarations, remains to be seen.

What is already clear is that water can no longer be treated as a humanitarian issue separate from security policy. In 2026, it is being weaponised in real time, with billions of lives in the balance and no meaningful international referee in sight.

Bibliography

• Al Jazeera. (2025). “China starts construction of world’s biggest hydropower dam in Tibet”. Al Jazeera. Published 22nd July, 2025. Available at: China starts construction of world’s biggest hydropower dam in Tibet | Environment News | Al Jazeera
• Al Jazeera. (2026). “Why an attack on Bushehr nuclear plant would be catastrophic for the Gulf”. Al Jazeera. Published 5th April, 2026. Available at: Why an attack on Bushehr nuclear plant would be catastrophic for the Gulf | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera
• BBC News. (2025). “Can India really stop river water from flowing into Pakistan?”. BBC News. Published 25th April, 2025. Available at: Pahalgam attack: Will India suspending Indus Waters Treaty affect Pakistan? – BBC News
• Chatham House. (2026). “India and Pakistan still cannot agree to restore the Indus Waters Treaty”. Chatham House. Published 17th April, 2026. Available at: India and Pakistan still cannot agree to restore the Indus Waters Treaty – but re-engagement could help bring lasting peace | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
• Circle of Blue. (2026) “Water, power, and the future of conflict”. Circle of Blue. Published 11th February, 2026. Available at: Water, Power, and the Future of Conflict – Circle of Blue
• CSIS (2026). “Could Iran disrupt the Gulf countries’ desalinated water supplies?”. CSIS. Published 19th March, 2026. Available at: Could Iran Disrupt the Gulf Countries’ Desalinated Water Supplies?
• Global Research. (2026). “Water has emerged as a central geopolitical risk”. Global Research. Published 16th March, 2026. Available at: Water Has Emerged as a Central Geopolitical Risk – Global ResearchGlobal Research – Centre for Research on Globalization
• Pacific Institute. (2026). “Water Conflict Chronology” Pacific Institute. Accessed 8th May, 2026. Available at: Water Conflict Chronology Timeline List
• Policy Circle. (2024). “China’s Brahmaputra dam and India’s strategic dilemma”. Policy Circle. Published 31st December, 2024. Available at: China’s Brahmaputra dam and India’s strategic dilemma | Policy Circle
• Reuters. (2025). “India says it will never restore Indus water treaty with Pakistan”. Reuters. Published 21st June, 2025. Available at: India says it will never restore Indus water treaty with Pakistan | Reuters
• The Geostrata. (2026). “The treaty China will never sign: Water diplomacy and geopolitical tensions”. The Geostrata. Published 4th April, 2026. Available at: The Treaty China Will Never Sign: Water Diplomacy & Geopolitical Tensions
• The Nation. (2026). “Pakistan urges UNSC to push India to restore IWT”. The Nation. Published 25th April, 2025. Available at: Pakistan urges UNSC to push India to restore IWT
• The Water Diplomat. (2026). “Freshwater desalination plants under attack in the Middle East?”. The Water Diplomat. Published 12th March, 2026. Available at: Freshwater desalination plants under attack in the Middle East? | The Water Diplomat
• Think Global Health. (2025). “The India-Pakistan water dispute: Unpacking the health consequences”. Think Global Health. Published 22nd July, 2025. Available at: The India-Pakistan Water Dispute: Unpacking the Health Consequences | Think Global Health
• Time. (2026). “The risk of targeting water desalination plants in the Iran war”. Time. Published 2nd April, 2026. Available at: The Risk of Targeting Water Desalination Plants In The Iran War