US Interests in Iraq are in Jeopardy: A Review

Attacks against US interests in Iraq have increased in this year. Following a barrage of rockets that killed an American contractor and wounded four American service members in Kirkuk, militia groups – probably Iran-aligned grouping – continue to target US military interests in Iraq. While these attacks have not been particularly lethal, they still pose a risk to the US personnel based in the country and put under pressure the US administration, enough to threaten the Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Khadimi to shut down the US Embassy.

Attacks Spike against US Assets

The US initiative to withdraw 2.200 troops by the end of September, lowering the number from 5.200 to only 3.000 service members, appears to have had a low impact on the militia group’s activity toward US troops in Iraq. Indeed, only on 5 October, several rocket attacks were reported against US interests. Two rockets hit US forces near Baghdad International Airport while another rocket landed near the US Embassy in the heavily fortified Green Zone. A third Katyusha rocket attack – allegedly headed toward the Green Zone – fell on the other side of the Tiger River, in the Jadriya neighborhood. Besides, only a few days before, several rockets struck an Iraqi base used by the US and coalition forces near the airport in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) capital of Erbil. In addition to the rocket attacks toward US bases and personnel, allegedly Iran-aligned militia groups also staged several Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) attacks against US military and logistical convoys, like the ones in Babil, Dhi Qar and Salahuddin governorates in September, or the one carried out in the Muthanna Governorate on October.

All these incidents, occurred throughout Iraq, highlight the mounting pressure that likely Iran-aligned militia groups are fielding to oust US troops from the whole country.

US and Iraq Administrations at Crossroads?

Whoever is behind these sequence of attacks, such a permanent risk prompted the Trump administration to threaten the Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Khadimi to shut down the US Embassy in Baghdad. While such a move will hardly lead to withdrawing the diplomatic mission from Iraq, still it increases the pressure on Al-Khadimi to pursue those responsible for such attacks. Indeed, the Iraqi Prime Minister has already proven to be able to go after Iran-aligned militia groups, as highlighted by the arrest of several Kataib Hezbollah members accused of being behind a rocket attack in June this year. However, the subsequent release of all those arrested in the raids yet underscores Al-Khadimi’s willingness to avoid an open, broad – and likely armed – confrontation with those militant groups.

That pointed out the harsh situation in which Al-Khadimi embroiled. On a side, avoiding to direct tackle with Iran-aligned militia groups increases the chances of US administration to withdraw its backing, in terms not only of military capability but also of economic support. Indeed, if Trump administration should impose sanctions these would have a direct impact on Iraq, further damaging an already brittle economy. In this sense, the Trump administration as already shortened an Iran sanctions waiver deadline by 60 days, instead of the previous 120 days. On the other, Al-Khadimi’s prior attempt to go after Iran-aligned militia groups have resulted in few or no results, highlighting the need for a more firm commitment to getting results, so as not to score another empty move.

A Possible Lull?

In this context, an announcement came to possibly give some respite to the US troops in Iraq. Indeed, according to a spokesperson of the Iran-backed militia Kataib Hezbollah – often deemed responsible for several attacks against US interests in Iraq – the militia group would agree on a conditional ceasefire against US assets and infrastructure. But such a lull would come into effect only on the creation of a timetable for the full withdrawal of US troops from the country, in line with the Iraqi’s parliament’s January vote for the expulsion of US troops. However, it is still unclear whether Washington is ready or not to create a public timetable for a full withdrawal of its military personnel. Besides, the ceasefire would be also promptly revoked in case of any actions that should be undertaken against any faction within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF – an umbrella organization composed mainly by Shiite militant group) of which Kataib Hezbollah is one of its members.

Conclusion

Therefore, whilst excluding that announcement may be related to any successful negotiation between Al-Khadimi and the Iran-backed militia group, yet, this offer may be an opportunity for the Iraqi government, and the US administration as well, to buy themselves some time. Since Al-Khadimi would be unwilling to lose the full US military and economic support, such ceasefire may give to its government some leeway to better understand how effectively tackles the Iran-backed militia groups. At the same time, if the US administration should announce a public timetable for a full withdrawal, they may see some pressure released against their military assets and personnel.

Regardless, it is relevant to underline that Kataib Hezbollah is just one of the several Iran-backed militia groups part of the PMF and a ceasefire coming from it would not rule out that other militant groups may take up arms. In other words, further attacks against US interests in Iraq are anything but excluded in the short-medium term, especially if the Iraqi government or the US should undertake any retaliation against the PMF.

References

Chris Riotta (2020), “US to withdraw 2,200 troops from Iraq within weeks”, The Independent. Available at: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us -politics/trump-us-military-troops-iraq-islamic-state-b420990.html [Accessed on 1 October 2020]

Courtney Kube (2020), “Attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq have increased, U.S. commander says”, NBC News. Available at: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/attacks-u-s-troops-iraq-have-increased-says-u-s-n1239863 [Accessed on 1 October 2020]

Edward Wong, Lara Jakes and Eric Schmitt (2020), “Pompeo Threatens to Close U.S. Embassy in Iraq Unless Militias Halt Attacks”, The New York Times. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/ 2020/09/29/us/politics/pompeo-embassy-baghdad-iraq.html [Accessed on 7 October 2020]

Edward Yeranian (2020), “Rocket Attack Targets Coalition Base in Iraqi Kurdistan”, VOA News. Available at: https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/rocket-attack-targets-coalition-base-iraqi-kurdistan [Accessed on 3 October 2020]

Mina Aldroubi (2020), “Iraqi militias announce conditional ceasefire against US troop”, The National. Available at: https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/iraqi-militias-announce-conditional-ceasefire-against-us-troops-1.1091785 [Accessed on 12 October 2020]

Ranj Alaaldin (2020), “Was Iraq’s prime minister right to go after an Iranian proxy?”, Brookings. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order -from-chaos/2020/07/01/was-iraqs-prime-minister-right-to-go-after-an-iranian-proxy/ [Accessed on 1 October 2020]