Governing After Gaddafi
Is there Renewed Hope for Elections in Libya?
The high turnout following Libya’s municipal elections in November 2024 has renewed the debate on whether the country is making progress in its transition towards effective governance. Despite the NATO-backed ousting of de facto leader Muammar al-Gaddafi in 2011, Libya continues to face various economic, security, and political crises. These issues not only inhibit the Libyan government’s ability to hold elections and run an efficient administration, but the state is also at risk of descending into further chaos. Therefore, due to its volatile environment, Libya had to suspend its December 2021 national elections indefinitely. Meanwhile, the country remains in a state of political limbo as the government has yet to reschedule its long-awaited presidential election and the second phase of its municipal elections. While the success of recent municipal elections is indicative of the people’s desire to participate in the electoral process, Libya’s precarious state and its competing factions make it highly unlikely that these elections will be held in the short to medium term.
Gaddafi’s Reign and the Aftermath
The lack of conventional state authority during Gaddafi’s four-decade rule has led to an absence of governmental cohesion, a skeptical civil society, and enfeebled public institutions in modern-day Libya. Furthermore, to secure his reign, Gaddafi’s strategy focused on suppressing opposition and hindering the progression of civil society, resulting in widespread corruption and the people’s distrust in the government. Hence, in response to the cruelty of Gaddafi’s regime, societal cohesion was fragmented. Simultaneously, various local kinship networks developed to provide civilians the security and services they were deprived of, thereby generating regionally divided public institutions and local parochialism.
Fragmentation of the state and civil society persists in Libya even after Gaddafi’s overthrow in 2011, fueling further conflict and dispute over governing arrangements. Thus, taking advantage of this political instability, competing groups emerged and clashed in their efforts to fill the void left by Gaddafi’s ousting. Consequently, what followed was an attempted coup, the outbreak of the Second Libyan Civil War (2014 – 2020), and a regional divide defined by two opposing administrations – the internationally recognized northwestern Government of National Unity (GNU) and eastern Government of National Stability (GNS). Therefore, their rivalry is a significant component of Libya’s rapid instability, as unilateral actions imposed by both sides, such as attempts at unseating opponents in office, have led to armed clashes and political quagmires.
Libya’s 2024 Municipal Elections – An Electoral Milestone?
Undeterred by Libya’s internal strife, some believe the results from the first phase of the municipal council elections serve as a clear indicator that successful elections are likely to take place in Libya. Held on November 16, 2024, the municipal elections reported a 74% turnout rate across 58 municipalities. Compared to the 2014 general elections, which reported a very low turnout rate of 18%, these figures appeared promising.
Such statistics, however, do not account for exclusivity, as large segments of the population have historically been excluded from the electoral process. For example, when the elections for Libya’s new General National Congress took place in 2012, the outcome was also celebrated due to its high turnout rate of 61% – approximately 1,764,840 votes were counted out of 2,865,937 registered voters. Nevertheless, when compared to the voting age population at that time, which according to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) was 3,622,314, slightly less than half (49%) of potential voters participated in the 2012 elections (Figure 1: Registered Voters vs. Voter Turnout displays the number of registered voters compared to the actual voter turnout per election cycle).
Therefore, given Libya’s developing political situation and the fact that its voter registration process for the new election cycle is ongoing, current figures can fluctuate, making it difficult to ascertain the overall success of the 2024 municipal elections. For instance, the 74% turnout rate was calculated by comparing actual voter turnout (155,400) to the number of registered voters (210,000). In previous elections, the voting age population consisted of about 60% of the total population. When applying that same methodology to Libya’s current population of 7.4 million, phase one voter turnout only equates to 0.04% of this hypothetical voting age group. Though this statistic is mere speculation, it showcases the challenge in measuring Libya’s success at the polls, especially considering that phase two has been delayed indefinitely, resulting in an incomplete dataset. (Figure 2: Voter Turnout Rate vs. Voting Age Population breaks down voter turnout rates per election cycle. It underscores how these rates drastically change when voter turnout rates are compared to registered voters versus the voting age population).
Looking Forward
Although the outcome of Libya’s recent municipal elections should be celebrated as a democratic milestone in the transition towards effective governance, voter turnout rates demonstrate that there are obstacles yet to be overcome before it can administer successful and transparent elections. Moreover, the country’s weak institutions and lack of a constitutional framework provide ample opportunities for opposing political parties and other actors with mal-intent to act within their own interests, contributing further to the disintegration of the state. Regrettably, the UNSMIL’s years-long effort to bring political stability has proven barren, thus demonstrating the difficulties surrounding this matter.
Furthermore, during a recent UN Security Council meeting, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Libya, Hanna Tetteh, noted that, “most Libyan leaders call for an inclusive political process and note the urgent need to end unilateral actions, to unify institutions, and restore stability.” However, she too acknowledges that many are uncertain whether a unified government would facilitate Libya’s political transition or extend it. Ultimately, while there is an apparent longing for democratic legitimacy, Libya is unlikely to achieve this endgame in the near future.
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