Divided Europe: the Rise of the Far-Right in France
Marine Le Pen’s sentencing could undermine France’s political integration with the EU in the years ahead.
France has seen the rise of far-right movements over the last decade, which has translated to an increasing popularity for far-right political parties, such as the Rassemblement National (RN).
Leader of the RN, Marine Le Pen, has been a three-time presidential candidate in recent years. However, her sentencing by a Paris court on 31 March 2025 to four years in prison, with two years suspended, plus a five-year ban from holding public office and a fine of €100,000 for the misuse of public funds, was a historic turning point as the far-right politician was found guilty in the European Parliament of embezzling more than €4 million over a number of years (Rahman, 2025).
Le Pen has described the decision as a ‘political witch hunt’ arguing that the case was aimed at distracting her from the 2027 presidential election. Furthremore, Jordan Bardella, president of the RN, has also described the decision as a ‘direct attack on democracy’ claiming that the impartiality of the French judiciary has been compromised (Burgess, 2025). In contrast, academic Luc Rouban argues that this decision is an important step towards strengthening the democratic system in France and restoring public confidence in the judiciary, by putting an end to long-standing political corruption in the country.
Though Le Pen’s appeal against the sentencing is ongoing, the decision is expected to radically change political perceptions in France over the coming years (Rouban, 2025). Le Pen is attempting to turn the case into a political one, arguing that it is against democracy to prevent the French people, who will vote in the 2027 presidential elections, from supporting a leading presidential candidate. Indeed, Le Pen’s efforts to mobilise voters by claiming that these charges are a ‘political plot’ appear to have gained widespread support.
The additional fines by the European Parliament on the RN present a major challenge for the political party. Le Pen has said the court’s decision ‘not only eliminates the presidential candidate but also aims to strangle the party’. Indeed, the compensation will further strain the RN’s already strapped financial situation. The party has paid €1 million to the European Parliament so far, but the total compensation demanded is about €2 million, including legal costs, moral damages and compensation for economic losses (Lauzun, 2025). This payment will seriously limit the RN’s financial capacity for the 2027 presidential elections and though Le Pen’s appeal may change this, for now, the court’s decision has presented a significant obstacle to the future of the RN.
The 2024 European Parliament Elections
The results of the 2024 European Parliament elections in France saw the rise of far-right populist parties. The elections, which took place against a backdrop of economic crisis, rising living costs, dissatisfaction with French President Emmanuel Macron and global uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine, resulted in a victory for the RN led by Marine Le Pen.
The RN came first with 31.4 per cent of the vote which was an increase of 8 per cent compared to the 2019 elections. These results reflect the French public’s economic, cultural and security concerns as well as a more broader dissatisfaction with Macron. Indeed, in the aftermath of the elections, the government’s loss of its majority and the subsequent transformation of the parliament into a three-bloc structure have made the polarisation of French politics even more apparent.
The success of the RN in recent years shows a weakening of Macron’s Renaissance political party’s influence in domestic politics. Voter behaviour has appeared to be shaped by fundamental issues, such as economic inequality and immigration, often expressed through protest votes. Therefore, the 2024 election signalled that the influence of right-wing populist movements has deepened and will continue to play a decisive role in the future of French politics (Ivaldi, 2024).
Division over the European Union
Interestingly, the 2024 European Parliament elections in France also revealed a deep ideological divide on voters’ perspectives on Europe. French attitudes towards the European Union reveals conflicts between voter groups at the extreme ends of the political spectrum. While voters supporting Macron see Europe as the foundation of stability and progress, a sense of mistrust towards Europe has emerged among those voting for far-right political parties, such as the RN. This has transformed European elections from a technical vote into a symbolic one.
Moreover, these ideological divisions are not limited to between political parties, rather they have also led to disagreements between political parties within the same alliance. This fragmentation has increased uncertainty about France’s future in Europe and calls into question the sustainability of political alliances in the country (Teunturier and Vacas, 2024).
But the European elections also show that there is not only a political but also a cultural divide in the French electorate’s attitude towards the European Union. There is almost no common ground between the voters who voted for Macron and those who voted for the RN and Reconquête! on fundamental issues concerning Europe. This divide is not just a superficial assessment of the benefits of membership, but a comprehensive clash of values, ranging from Europe’s capacity for crisis management, to its role in economic and social policy, to its environmental and international interventions.
Notably, data on those who voted for Reconquête! demonstrate that anti-EU sentiment has become not only a political but also an existential issue for the political party’s electoral base. Though RN voters are slightly less critical, this difference does not alter the fact that the far-right’s position on Europe is fundamentally rejectionist. Indeed, according to estimates, only around 32-34 per cent of RN voters support European membership, while 63-65 per cent are opposed, a net difference of -31 points. For Reconquête! voters this difference is even more pronounced: around 30-31 per cent support it, while 67-68 per cent oppose it, a net difference of -37 points.
These figures reveal a trend: the debate on Europe in France has moved away from technical issues to deeper, and more polarising, ones such as national sovereignty. These two different worldviews that have emerged signal a division not only between the political parties but also at the societal level among those voting for them.
The Future of the French Far-Right Movement
The rise of the far-right in France poses a significant national, regional and international political risk. Debate over the legal proceedings and subsequent financial difficulties facing Marine Le Pen and her RN party are threatening the stability of the current government while also deepening polarisation in French politics which could have significant implications for France’s future role in the European Union. The far-right’s increasing Euroskepticism could undermine France’s political integration with the European Union in the years ahead and therefore weaken political unity within the European Union itself. Indeed, the uncertainty of Le Pen’s appeal, and the financial pressure on her political party, could deepen an emerging political crisis in France while also increasing broader uncertainty in Europe which could have negative implications for global stability. In this context, the ongoing rise of the far-right in France, poses a significant threat, not only for the country, but also for the world.
Bibliography
Burgess, J. (2025) ‘Marine Le Pen calls court ruling a “witch hunt” at Paris rally’, BBC News, 6 April. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8dg90l7ymlo (Accessed: 23 April 2025).
de Lauzun, H. (2025) ‘If You Can’t Beat It, Fine It: EU Orders Le Pen’s RN To Pay €3.5M’, The European Conservative. Available at: https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/if-you-cant-beat-it-fine-it-eu-orders-le-pens-rn-to-pay-e3-5m/ (Accessed: 23 April 2025).
Ivaldi, G. (2024) ‘A Tipping Point for Far-Right Populism in France’, in Ivaldi, G. and Zankina, E. (eds.) 2024 EP Elections under the Shadow of Rising Populism. European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), 22 October. Available at: https://doi.org/10.55271/rp0070
Rahman, M. (2025) ‘Le Pen is down but not out’, Politico.eu, 15 April. Available at: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-down-not-out-election/
Rouban, L. (2025) Marine Le Pen verdict ‘represents an effort to make democracy better’ in France. CEVIPOF, Sciences Po. Available at: https://www.sciencespo.fr/cevipof/en/news/marine-le-pen-verdict-represents-an-effort-to-make-democracy-better-in-france/
Teinturier, B. and Vacas, F. (2024) Enquête électorale française: les élections européennes. Ipsos. Available at: https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/europeennes-2024/enquete-electorale-francaise-les-elections-europeennes (Accessed: 23 April 2025).
