Democratic Backlash in Venezuela and the 2025 Parliamentary Elections

Venezuela has undergone a profound transformation from a flawed democracy to an increasingly entrenched authoritarian regime. Over the last decade, systematic erosion of democratic norms, institutional weakening, and the narrowing of political pluralism have redefined the country’s political trajectory. The 2025 parliamentary elections are not merely another electoral cycle they represent a strategic instrument used by the regime to legitimize its rule, marginalize opposition forces, and entrench authoritarian control. This article argues that the 2025 elections mark a decisive moment in the consolidation of authoritarianism in Venezuela, functioning less as a democratic process and more as a performance designed to maintain a façade of legitimacy. Through an examination of key developments such as the arrest of opposition leaders, contested electoral procedures, constitutional reforms, and the symbolic use of the Essequibo region the article explores how electoral processes are being reengineered to reinforce autocratic rule. In doing so, it sheds light on the broader implications for regional democratic norms and the resilience of hybrid regimes in Latin America.

The parliamentary and regional elections to be held on 25 May 2025 will elect members of the National Assembly, whose terms of office will expire on 5 January 2026, as required by the constitution, as well as 24 state governors and regional councillors. In the forthcoming elections, which are expected to attract approximately 21.5 million voters, the Great Patriotic Polarisation (GPP) coalition, led by the ruling party PSUV, is well-positioned to secure a victory. The opposition is divided into two main factions: the first, led by Maria Corina Machado, is boycotting the elections and calling into question the legitimacy of the government, while the second, including Henrique Capriles, has called for participation in the elections. Machado characterised the elections as a “great fraud” that does not reflect the will of the people and predicted that the polling stations will be empty (France 24, 2025).

The Essequibo Region and the Regional Dimensions of the Electoral Process

The 2025 election campaign has assumed symbolic importance with the election of MPs and local administrators for the first time in the Essequibo region. Whilst the ruling coalition prioritised direct voter communication through door-to-door canvassing, complemented by conventional mass rallies, the opposition campaign encountered limitations due to deficiencies in social media strategy and organisational structure. The opposition’s decision to boycott the 2020 elections, followed by a majority in parliament and the enactment of repressive laws, has rendered the 2025 elections a critical turning point in terms of the deep erosion of democratic norms and the institutionalisation of authoritarianism (Venezuelanalysis, 2025). Maduro’s objective is to consolidate his power in the May 2025 elections following his controversial third-term victory. Nevertheless, a significant proportion of the opposition declined to participate in the elections, thereby serving to reinforce the prevailing expectations that voter turnout will be subdued. A considerable number of opposition supporters have expressed a loss of confidence in the electoral process, citing irregularities in previous elections and the government’s stringent repression as key factors. In anticipation of the forthcoming elections, the government deployed a substantial number of security personnel, exceeding 400,000, to guarantee the safety of the electoral process. Voting was also conducted in the Essequibo region, where tensions have escalated along the border. The prevailing hypothesis is that the ruling coalition will maintain a majority in parliament, a prediction that is predicated on the opposition’s fragmented nature and its decision to boycott. However, some opposition members have argued against a boycott of the elections, instead calling for the democratic struggle to continue through the ballot box. In the midst of prevailing uncertainty and insecurity throughout the nation in relation to the elections, a diversity of public perspectives emerges. A proportion of voters offer their support to the incumbent government, while concurrently, others offer criticism, extending not only to the government but also to the opposition. This electoral process has been documented as a pivotal moment in the reconfiguration of political equilibria in an environment characterised by the erosion of democratic institutions and the persistence of authoritarian inclinations (AFP, 2025).

Democratic Competition, Constitutional Reform and the Vision of Communal Democracy

According to Oliver Rivas, the 2025 election process has undergone a transformation, not only in terms of the candidate selection mechanism, but also with regard to social participation and the strengthening of communes. The Simón Bolívar Law is a legislative instrument designed to safeguard the integrity of the electoral process against external interference, particularly from the far right. The law facilitates the participation of candidates representing a diverse array of political parties, excluding those that have been proscribed, in the electoral process. This situation demonstrates that democratic competition persists, albeit in a restricted capacity. The constitutional reform’s objective is twofold: firstly, to strengthen direct democracy mechanisms, and secondly, to incorporate the communes into the constitutional text. The objective of this initiative is to transform the state into a more equitable and community-oriented structure, in accordance with the vision of communal socialism espoused by Chavismo. However, while electoral bans and the fragmentation of the opposition serve to narrow the democratic space, constitutional reform can play a critical role in the long term in reestablishing democratic legitimacy. The 2025 elections and the constitutional reform are significant developments that will shape Venezuela’s current political structure and future democratic prospects (Pascual Marquina, 2025). At the same time, Oliver Rivas’ candidacy and Venezuela’s claims over the Essequibo region show that the 2025 elections are not limited to domestic political dynamics, but are taking place under the shadow of an international territorial dispute. The fact that the people of Essequibo cannot vote and that election campaigns cannot be held there means that democratic participation is limited. This situation is considered as part of Venezuela’s efforts to strengthen its claim of sovereignty in the region. By introducing Essequibo as a new state, the Maduro administration aims to both reinforce the nationalist discourse and create a ground for resistance against external interventions. However, the decisions of international courts not to interfere in the elections and the inability of the people of the region to participate in the elections constitute a significant handicap in terms of democratic legitimacy. The election process, which the opposition largely boycotted, deepens political polarization and strengthens criticism that elections are no longer a real democratic competition area under Maduro’s authoritarian governance model. In this context, Venezuela’s strategy of consolidating domestic politics through the Essequibo issue not only weakens the country’s democratic visibility in the international arena but also increases regional tensions (Ellis, 2025).

After the Elections: The Country’s Political Future and Possible Scenarios

The 2025 parliamentary elections in Venezuela highlight how authoritarian regimes co-opt electoral mechanisms to sustain power. Rather than serving as a forum for democratic choice, the elections have functioned as tools for repression, consolidation, and symbolic sovereignty particularly in contested areas like Essequibo. The arrest of opposition figures, electoral boycotts, and constitutional reforms all point to a deliberate strategy of regime entrenchment. While the government promotes a vision of communal democracy, these efforts fall short of countering the broader trend of democratic backsliding. Unless opposition forces, civil society, and international actors find new pathways to challenge this consolidation, Venezuela risks becoming a textbook example of authoritarian endurance through electoral camouflage. The country’s trajectory will also have ripple effects across Latin America, where democratic fragility and hybrid regimes are increasingly under strain.

References

1. (2025, May 21). Venezuela’s Maduro aims to cement power in new divisive elections. The New Indian Express. https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2025/May/21/venezuelas-maduro-aims-to-cement-power-in-new-divisive-elections
2. Ellis, C. (2025, May 23). Borders and ballots: Why Essequibo is controversial in Venezuela’s election. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2025/5/23/borders-and-ballots-why-essequibo-is-controversial-in-venezuelas-election
3. FRANCE 24 with AFP. (2025, May 16). Venezuela opposition’s Machado promises empty voting booths for legislative elections. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20250516-venezuela-opposition-s-machado-promises-empty-voting-booths-for-legislative-elections
4. Pascual Marquina, C. (2025, April 18). Venezuela’s 2025 elections: Electoral safeguards and constitutional reform – A conversation with Oliver Rivas. Venezuelanalysis. https://venezuelanalysis.com/interviews/venezuelas-2025-elections-electoral-safeguards-and-constitutional-reform-a-conversation-with-oliver-rivas/
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