Confronting the Cartels U.S. Strategic and Operational Challenges in Mexico

On March 25, 2025, the U.S. Intelligence Community released its Annual Threat Assessment (ATA), they identified Western-Hemisphere based Transnational Criminal Organizations (cartels) as a significant threat to U.S. national security due to their involvement in drug production, drug and arms smuggling and human trafficking across the Southern border (ATA, 2025). These cartels are mostly based in Mexico, although their reach, operations and supply chains form an international network.

The military option has been much discussed and preparatory measures have seemingly been taken, they include an increased presence along the Southern border (Al-Jazeera, 2025b), drone reconnaissance (Trevithick, 2025) and a military build-up in the Caribbean (Schmitt, 2025). While the build-up has focused on Venezuela and the Tren de Aragua cartel in particular, these assets could also conduct kinetic operations in Mexico. Recent drone strikes on drug smuggling ships also confirm the willingness of Washington to use military force to combat cartel activity (Shamim, 2025).

The possibility of serious kinetic U.S. military action against cartels in Mexico is likely (Cooper, 2025 and Savage and Schmitt, 2025).

Drivers and Motivations 

Cartels have been a significant driver of opioid deaths in the U.S., the ATA highlighted the 52,000 deaths 2023 and 2024 (ATA, 2025).

Additionally, combatting the cartels, human trafficking and the supply of opioids from Mexico were all staples of the Trump 2024 campaign. President Trump, having won the election, has a mandate to address these issues (Agenda 47, 2023).

Finally, the ability of an organised criminal group to penetrate the U.S. is a national security threat. Cartels could help facilitate the entry of hostile individuals into the U.S. This could include assets from foreign intelligence agencies but also terrorists. Border Patrol has for example repeatedly encountered individuals on the Terrorist Screening Data Set attempting entry through the Southern border (HTA, 2024), highlighting the serious threat posed by a cartel-enabled smuggling network.

Therefore, the Trump administration has the political mandate as well as a national security concern to justify serious action against the cartels.

A Mexican Quagmire

Geographic Challenges

Mexico’s diverse geography poses a major challenge for any large scale, on-the-ground military deployment. Its arid deserts in the northwest, tropical rainforests in the South, rugged volcanic mountain ranges, and vast coastlines complicate communications, supply lines, and force organization (C2).

Unlike the Mexican-American War (1846-1848), where the U.S. fought a nation-state with an organized military, cartels would likely employ guerrilla or insurgent tactics. During the Mexican Revolution (1910-1920), the terrain aided revolutionaries and made it difficult for any central authority to establish control. Cartels would probably exploit the terrain, adopting similar strategies to those seen during the War in Afghanistan (2001–2021) but also The Troubles (1960s-1998).

While an air campaign may be more feasible, it would require precise and rolling up-to-date intelligence as well as long-term political support from both Washington and Mexico City.

Kinetic military action against cartels must be targeted, any large-scale deployment of troops would be costly, in both blood and treasure and would simply produce a quagmire for the U.S., like the one experienced in Afghanistan.

Corruption and the Political Environment

Corruption within Mexico’s political and law enforcement institutions significantly compromises potential support from Mexico City (Attanasio, 2024 and Sánchez, 2022). Corruption has been a key enabler of cartel operations (Krauze, 2025) and Washington would have to address this systematic issue before targeting the cartels. Any such intervention by the Washington would; however, been seen as an attempt at ‘regime change’ or as undue interreference in Mexican domestic affairs.

Without large scale political and public support from inside Mexico, as well as tremendous domestic political capital, the Trump administration will have to navigate this complex political landscape rather than intervene in it.

While former President Obrador pursued a ‘non-confrontational’ approach, President Sheinbaum has signalled a tougher enforcement approach against the cartels (Rubio-Márquez, 2025). While this suggests a willingness to cooperate with Washington, the balance between cooperation and maintaining national sovereignty is delicate. President Sheinbaum has been willing to cooperate but has rejected any effort to use the U.S. military inside of Mexico (Al-Jazeera, 2025a).

The support of Mexican City is vital for any action to be successful, the intelligence and local knowledge of the Mexican military, federal police and local law enforcement is indispensable.

Washington must therefore simultaneously guard against corrupt elements inside of Mexico while maintaining a positive bilateral relationship with Mexico City.

Necessity is the mother of invention

Even if Washington was successful in disrupting the cartels by destroying their labs, disrupting supply chains and closing entry points along the border, the cartels would innovate. New routes would emerge, new suppliers would appear and new labs would be constructed.

Cartels have already relocated labs to Canada and authorities have raised concerns about their growing presence (Morris, 2025). In Canada, cartels appear to have easy access to precursor chemicals, they face less law enforcement pressure and the Northern border is seemingly open for new smuggling routes to be established (CBP, 2025).

While the scale of the relocation is still limited, the possibility of further expansion is increasingly likely. Washington will have to continually keep up the pressure on the cartels in the entire Western hemisphere, tackling them in Mexico alone is not enough.

The International Connection

These cartels are diversified and have connections across the Western hempishphere and beyond, Mexico is a single component of an international network. Precursor chemicals are the essential enabler of the cartels. While there are many sources, their major supplier has been China (DOJ, 2025). This further complicates both the U.S.-China relationship and any U.S. effort to dismantle the cartels.

Conclusion

• Cartels remain a threat and will continue to innovate, relocate labs and develop smuggling routes despite U.S. efforts
• Military action against the cartels must be strategic and targeted because large-scale deployments to Mexico would be costly in both blood and treasure
• Washington will have to carefully navigate the complex and evolving political and cartel landscape within Mexico
• A comprehensive, long-term strategy addressing the entire Western Hemisphere is essential to substantially dismantle the cartels

Bibliography

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