Corridors of Competition: Securing the Bering-Caspian Axis

This article discusses policy recommendations by leveraging maritime and energy diplomacy.

The Issue at Hand

The Bering Strait and Caspian Basin are converging into a high-stakes corridor for maritime access, energy diplomacy, and strategic leverage. However, post-2020 sanctions have redrawn alignments, elevating the Russia-China-Iran axis and Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan in the Caspian region.

The Caspian is among the world’s most resource-rich zones, home to massive offshore oil fields and vast gas reserves. These assets now lie at the heart of intensifying competition, made riskier by rising military signaling and diplomatic friction.

Consequently, the Iranian “12-Day War” highlighted how quickly localized volatility in these corridors can send shockwaves through global energy markets and shipping networks. Moreover, without cooperative frameworks, the region risks becoming a flashpoint. Hence, stakeholders, including Russia, Iran, China, the Caspian states, and maritime governance bodies, must act with urgency.

Policy Recommendation:

The United States and its partners should establish a structured diplomatic track centered on Caspian energy and maritime coordination. This is feasible through existing regional and bilateral platforms and is crucial for avoiding miscalculation, securing resource flows, and preserving geopolitical balance.

Historical Significance

The Bering Strait’s strategic profile has risen with Arctic melt and intensified sanctions. Consequently, it serves as a Pacific gateway for inter-oceanic shipping, linking Canada’s Northwest Passage with Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR).

The United States once helped stabilize the Caspian through initiatives like the Caspian Guard Initiative (CGI), launched in 2003 to protect infrastructure, counter trafficking, and limit Russian and Iranian influence. However, the 2018 Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea barred foreign military vessels, eliminating future U.S. Coast Guard access and enabling unchecked Russian and Iranian activity in Caspian waters. As a result, Iran, long skilled in evading sanctions, is now transferring tactics to Russia. Thus, Tehran has dredged the Volga River and expanded the Astrakhan port. Additionally, these corridors enable both regimes to bypass restrictions and maintain military and commercial flow with limited international oversight.

What Are the Stakes for Involved Countries?

The NSR, whose stability is crucial to global trade, runs along Russia’s Arctic coast to the Bering Strait, reducing shipping distance between Europe and Asia by nearly 50 percent. Consequently, disruptions would ripple across supply chains, halting commerce and raising costs for working populations.

The Caspian region plays a crucial supporting role, as Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia, and Turkmenistan intersect with Russia and Iran’s strategic ambitions. Moreover, Azerbaijan is especially pivotal as it borders both Russia and Iran, holds major hydrocarbon reserves, and serves as a diplomatic and logistical bridge. Furthermore, a proposed gas pipeline through Azerbaijan could transport up to 55 bcm of Russian gas to Iran, with potential extensions to Armenia, Pakistan, or India. Therefore, if realized, it would rival Nord Stream and solidify Azerbaijan as a key gatekeeper of regional energy flows.

Meanwhile, Turkey remains an unpredictable player. Its alignment with Russia and Iran shifts depending on cultural ties, energy needs, and strategic interests. In March 2025, Turkmenistan began exporting gas to Turkey through a swap with Iran: Turkmen gas enters Iran’s grid, and Iran delivers an equivalent volume to Turkey. Though long in development, the deal opens a new corridor for Caspian gas to reach Europe and strengthens Turkey’s role as a transit hub.

Still, the route’s viability is fragile as it remains exposed to U.S. sanctions targeting Iran’s energy sector and is constrained by Iran’s aging pipeline infrastructure. Therefore, in the wake of the “12-Day War” and heightened tensions with the U.S. and Israel, Iran’s capacity to honor its commitments remains uncertain.

Simultaneously, Georgia, though small, plays a vital role in supporting energy diplomacy. In 2022, Georgian Railways partnered with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to open a feeder shipping route from Poti to Constanța, linking the Caspian to Europe via the Black Sea, thereby reducing dependency on Russian-controlled channels.

Additionally, Georgia’s pro-Western stance and unresolved conflict with Russia mean Moscow has limited influence in Tbilisi. While Russia and Iran seek to curb U.S. and EU presence in the Caucasus, Georgia continues to align with Western partners. Consequently, its energy and transport cooperation with Azerbaijan and Turkey directly undermines Russian and Iranian efforts to dominate regional infrastructure. Therefore, Georgia and Azerbaijan should expand strategic energy dialogues with U.S.-led energy diplomacy forums to counterbalance regional coercion.

Vulnerabilities of the Caspian and Arctic Borderlands

If the United States stays on the sidelines, the region could face serious consequences. The Black Sea and the Northern Sea Route (NSR) are pressure points where tensions could escalate fast, leading to increased militarization. Hence, energy diplomacy is critical, especially considering the Western partnership between Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Without clear communication, powers like Russia and Iran could overrun key trade routes. If the Caspian corridor develops through uncoordinated expansion, the result could be fragmentation. Simultaneously, Russia and Iran are advancing the North-South Corridor, while China and Central Asian states favor the east-west Middle Corridor. This split increases the risk of overlapping infrastructure, underused routes, and rising tensions. Furthermore, poor coordination between these projects also creates logistical burdens and inconsistent standards.

Such fragmentation would erode EU resilience, fracture logistics networks, and destabilize markets spanning Eurasia. Moreover, ecologically, there are already drawbacks to maritime transit. The NSR faces strategic and practical constraints: limited search and rescue, poor telecommunications, and insufficient icebreaker support. Ice conditions are unpredictable, and with the rapidly changing climate, weather patterns create further complications. Hence, longstanding issues are now compounded, especially for companies trying to plan reliable transit through these corridors.

Therefore, to prevent strategic fragmentation and preserve maritime stability, U.S. policy must reinforce corridor resilience across three dimensions: maritime security, transport connectivity, and multilateral engagement.

What Can Be Done Moving Forward?

Policy Recommendation 1: Reinvigorate the Caspian Guard Initiative (CGI)

 Expand the program’s mandate beyond counterterrorism and trafficking to protect energy corridors and digital infrastructure across the Caspian littoral states.

Policy Recommendation 2: Mobilize U.S. development tools to modernize critical transport links

 Through the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), support Georgia and Azerbaijan’s port and rail infrastructure upgrades, particularly along the Poti-Constanța corridor, reducing dependence on Russian-controlled transit.

Policy Recommendation 3: Coordinate the Arctic-Caspian maritime strategy under multilateral frameworks

Leverage the Arctic Council (via the U.S.-Canada axis) to reinforce stability in northern shipping routes, while initiating a Caspian Maritime Working Group under the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) or NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) to enhance maritime governance, emergency preparedness, and interoperability.

Priority Action Path:

Recommendation 3 offers the most flexible and scalable approach. Through NATO’s PfP, countries like Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan can pursue defense reform, joint training, and disaster coordination without formal alliances. This soft alignment builds capacity and trust, countering Russian and Iranian military influence through transparent, standards-based cooperation. Over time, visible gains in interoperability and regional stability could attract additional corridor states, catalyzing a broader realignment around shared maritime and security norms.

Key Takeaways

The Caspian Region and Arctic Zones cannot remain unseen any longer. The Bering-Caspian corridor is fragile but overlooked. Consequently, without urgent coordination, fragmented infrastructure, and rising pressure from Russia and Iran could tilt the balance. Thus, utilizing U.S. and EU tools can reinforce maritime stability, protect trade routes, and prevent the region from further geopolitical isolation.