June 5, 2025

Escalation of India-Pakistan Tensions Over Kashmir

By Nathaniel Ellis

In April 2025, longstanding geopolitical frictions between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region intensified significantly following a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir (The Times of India, 2025a). The incident triggered a series of consequential developments, including heightened military engagements, diplomatic confrontations, and the suspension of key bilateral agreements (Financial Times, 2025). These events have exacerbated the already volatile security dynamics between the states and the nuclear dynamic, as shown in figure 1, raises further concerns over the potential for broader regional destabilisation and the erosion of established conflict-mitigation frameworks.

The Pahalgam Attack

On April 22^nd, 2025, a terrorist attack in the tourist town of Pahalgam resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians, primarily Hindu tourists. The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the attack (CSIS, 2025). Consequently, India accused Pakistan of sheltering and facilitating terrorist groups operating within Kashmir, a charge Pakistan categorically denied (Foreign Affairs, 2025).

In response, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi cut short his visit to Saudi Arabia and convened an emergency meeting with the Cabinet Committee on Security. Subsequently, India announced several measures:

Immediate suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a 1960 agreement governing water sharing between the two countries.
Closure of the main border crossing and cancellation of visas for Pakistani nationals.
Expulsion of Pakistani military advisers from the High Commission in New Delhi and withdrawal of Indian counterparts from Islamabad.

(BBC News, 2025; The Indian Express, 2025; Jagonews24, 2025)

Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty

India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty marks a pivotal shift in its approach to relations with Pakistan, particularly given the treaty’s resilience through previous conflicts (BBC, 2025). The suspension poses a critical threat to Pakistan’s water security, with significant ramifications for its agriculture-dependent economy, which relies extensively on the Indus system. In response, Pakistani Senator Syed Ali Zafar characterised the move as a “water bomb,” emphasising the urgency of diplomatic intervention to mitigate its potential socio-economic consequences (The Times of India, 2025a).

Military Escalation: Operation Sindoor

On May 7^th, 2025, India launched Operation Sindoor, a coordinated series of missile strikes targeting what it classified as terrorist infrastructure within Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir. Indian authorities stated that the operation specifically aimed at militant groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, however, Pakistan countered these claims, asserting that the strikes primarily impacted civilian areas, resulting in significant casualties (CSIS, 2025).

In response, Pakistan initiated Operation Bunyanun Marsoos, conducting precision-guided missile strikes against entities it identified as instrumental in fostering terrorism within its borders. The confrontation marked a historic shift in Indo-Pakistani hostilities, as both nations engaged in drone warfare for the first time, utilising unmanned aerial systems to target each other’s military installations (CSIS, 2025).

Diplomatic Maneuvers and International Reactions

In the wake of these escalating hostilities, both India and Pakistan launched assertive diplomatic initiatives to consolidate international backing for their respective positions. India dispatched delegations to key allies such as Japan and Russia, seeking to underscore Pakistan’s alleged support for terrorism and bolster its strategic narrative. Conversely, Pakistan framed India as the aggressor, directing global attention to human rights concerns in Kashmir (Financial Times, 2025; The Times of India, 2025c).

The United States extended an offer to mediate between the two nations, though India firmly rejected third-party intervention, maintaining that resolution should be pursued through bilateral channels (The Times of India, 2025b). Meanwhile, regional powers, including China and Iran, expressed their willingness to facilitate de-escalation efforts, highlighting the broader geopolitical stakes of the conflict (CSIS, 2025).

Broader Economic and Civil Impacts

The escalating hostilities between India and Pakistan in 2025 extended beyond military and diplomatic confrontations, generating significant disruptions across various sectors. In Pakistan, the Pakistan Super League (PSL) cricket tournament experienced operational setbacks due to the absence of Indian technicians responsible for critical systems such as the Decision Review System (DRS) and Hawkeye (The Economic Times, 2025). Compounding these difficulties, several foreign players withdrew from the tournament, further complicating its organisation and underscoring the wider impact of geopolitical instability on international sporting events (The Economic Times, 2025).

Meanwhile, India’s aviation sector faced considerable challenges as airspace restrictions disrupted flight operations. An IndiGo flight traveling from Delhi to Srinagar encountered severe weather but was denied route diversion clearance by both the Indian Air Force and Pakistan due to ongoing airspace constraints (Reuters, 2025). Although the aircraft sustained damage, it landed safely, highlighting the growing aviation risks associated with the broader geopolitical crisis.

The Ceasefire and Ongoing Concerns

After multiple military confrontations, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire on May 10^th, 2025. However, the agreement remains tenuous, as both sides continue to maintain heightened security postures and exchanged accusations of violations mere hours after its implementation (PBS News, 2025). The fragility of the ceasefire underscores persistent distrust and unresolved tensions between the two nations, exacerbating concerns over the potential for renewed hostilities.

Bibliography

BBC News. (2025). “Can India really stop river water from flowing into Pakistan?”. BBC News. Published 25^th April, 2025. Available at: Pahalgam attack: Will India suspending Indus Waters Treaty affect Pakistan? – BBC News

CSIS. (2025). “What Led to the Recent Crisis Between India and Pakistan?”. CSIS. Published 20^th May, 2025. Available at: What Led to the Recent Crisis Between India and Pakistan?

Financial Times. (2025). “India and Pakistan launch rival diplomatic efforts to spin Kashmir conflict”. Financial Times. Published 22^nd May, 2025.

Foreign Affairs. (2025). “The Next War Between India and Pakistan”. Foreign Affairs. Published 23^rd May, 2025. Available at: The Next War Between India and Pakistan | Foreign Affairs

Jagonews24. (2025). “India halts Indus water-sharing with Pakistan, closes border”. Jagonews24. Published 23^rd April, 2025. Available at: India halts Indus water-sharing with Pakistan, closes border

PBS News. (2025). “India and Pakistan trade accusations of violating ceasefire hours after reaching deal”. PBS News. Published 10^th May, 2025. Available at: India and Pakistan trade accusations of violating ceasefire hours after reaching deal | PBS News

Reuters. (2025). “IndiGo flight facing severe weather was denied diversion requests, India says”. Reuters. Published 23^rd May, 2025. Available at: IndiGo flight facing severe weather was denied diversion requests, India says | Reuters

The Economic Times. (2025). “Pakistan’s PSL to be played without DRS and Hawkeye as Indian technicians do not return after India-Pakistan conflict”. The Economic Times. Published 23^rd May, 2025. Available at: Pakistan’s PSL to be played without DRS and Hawkeye as Indian technicians do not return after India-Pakistan conflict – The Economic Times

The Indian Express. (2025). “Pahalgam terror attack | Indus abeyance is official, all visas cancelled: Delhi turns the screws”. The Indian Express. Published 25^th April, 2025. Available at: Pahalgam terror attack | Indus abeyance is official, all visas cancelled: Delhi turns the screws | India News – The Indian Express

The Times of India. (2025a). “’A water bomb’: Pakistan Senator Syed Ali Zafar explains impact of India suspending Indus pact”. The Times of India. Published 25^th May, 2025. Available at: ‘A water bomb’: Pakistan Senator Syed Ali Zafar explains impact of India suspending Indus pact – Times of India

The Times of India. (2025b). “No water with terror, govt reiterates to Pakistan”. The Times in India. Published 23^rd May, 2025. Available at: No water with terror, govt reiterates to Pakistan | India News – Times of India

The Times of India. (2025c). “Operation Sindoor: Indian delegations in Japan and Russia rally against Pakistan-sponsored terror”. The Times of India. Published 24^th May, 2025. Available at: Operation Sindoor: Indian delegations in Japan and Russia rally against Pakistan-sponsored terror | India News – Times of India

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About the Author

Nathaniel Ellis

My name is Nathaniel Ellis and I am a Political Risk Analyst here at the Atlas Institute for International Affairs, having joined the organisation in January 2025. I hold an MA in Politics and International Relations from Keele University, where I explored a broad spectrum of topics including European politics, maritime security, and post-conflict development.

My research interests are centered on the intersection of emerging technologies and global security, with a particular focus on artificial intelligence, space, and satellite capabilities. Through my work, I aim to contribute to the organisation in a positive way, and analyse key issues at the forefront of the international agenda.