Russia’s New Presence in the Red Sea

On 28 February 2021, Russian warship Admiral Grigorovich entered Port Sudan, a Sudanese port on the Red Sea coast, for the first time. The docking was permitted due to a treaty signed by Moscow and Khartoum towards the end of 2020, allowing the first Russian naval base in Africa to be established in Sudan for at least the next 25 years. A day after Admiral Grigorovich’s docking, American naval destroyer USS Winston S. Churchill enters Port Sudan for the first time “in decades” (france24, 2021). The American presence can be attributed to Sudan’s signing of the Abraham Accords, pledging to normalise relations with Israel. In return, America removed Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism (dw.com, 2021), which means that trade and arms deals can commence between the two nations. This series of events could potentially evolve into an area of more serious contention between America and Russia over Africa and the Red Sea region.

The Significance of the Region

The USA’s only permanent base in Africa, Camp Lemonnier, is strategically situated on the coast of Djibouti by Bab-el-Mandeb (Gate of Tears), overlooking the geographical point where the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea are separated. The Red Sea serves as the main trade route for oil between the Middle East and Europe while acting as an outwards-trade route for coastal countries such as Israel, Jordan, Egypt, and Sudan (Al-Anazi, 2001).  Establishing a military presence in the Djibouti coast grants America a certain level of involvement in trade and regional politics in the area. On the other hand, Russia’s goals for building a naval base in Sudan is rooted in its interest in expanding influence. Sudan is currently the third largest arms market for Russia and also a political backer for Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria (Ramani, 2020).

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Locations of the American, Chinese, and Russian bases in the region.

Cohabitation of Russia and America in the Red Sea

Can there be peace between the two historical rivals in the sensitive Red Sea region? Russia’s new deal with Sudan gives it permission to station at any time 300 military and civilian personnel and “four ships, including nuclear-powered vessels” (arabnews, 2021). The two states also have a historical alliance regarding the ongoing Syrian War. In 2018, Sudan’s president was flown to Syria for bilateral conversations with Bashar al-Assad by the Russian air force. This made the Sudanese president the only Arab leader to visit Syria since its Arab League membership was suspended in 2011 following the outbreak of war (middleeastmonitor, 2018). On this front alone, America and Russia could be on a collision course regarding the “sponsoring of terrorism,” as the Syrian Arab Republic remains on America’s list of state sponsors of terrorism. The enhanced buying of Russian weapons and support for the Assad regime as a result of the new Russia-Sudan treaty could quickly sour the currently-mending relationship between America and Sudan. In the future, Sudan may find itself caught in a dilemma of choosing between Russian political and military backing or possible American economic support and higher trading potential.

Another potential point of contention is America’s role as the “longstanding dominant external power” in the Horn of Africa (Knopf, 2018). America had guaranteed itself this position through  investing large sums of money in the development, security, humanitarian aid, and counterterrorism in the region every year. Even though the People’s Republic of China also has a naval base in Djibouti, the approach adopted by China towards the Red Sea nations is centred heavily on economic ties instead of the security, military, and humanitarian approach taken by the USA. China does not seem to be interested in playing a large role in maintaining security, instead focusing on enhancing diplomatic and cultural ties with Middle Eastern and Red Sea countries, branding themselves a neutral party in most affairs (usip.org, 2020). On the basis that America and China have different goals in the Red Sea area, most of the tensions which exist on the respective Djibouti bases are among the troops but not the governments. However, Russia, in the post-Soviet era, has generally taken a militaristic approach to politics as exemplified by its conflicts in neighbouring states such as the Tajik Civil War, Russo-Georgian War, arms sales to Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the 2014 Crimean crisis. As the arms exports to Sudan may increase due to the continuously improving relations between Moscow and Khartoum, Moscow’s influence may strengthen in other Red Sea countries due to the advantage of proximity now that a naval base will be established beyond the American Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint. America may gradually feel that Russia is encroaching on its sphere in the Red Sea arena by initiating more security influence.

To amplify the likelihood of heightened tensions and perhaps conflict, Camp Lemonnier acts as one of the USA’s  bases for Persian Gulf operations. With battleships, destroyers, and aircrafts at the camp (fsb-ae.com), America possesses naval and air superiority as a contingency against possible Iranian aggressions. Meanwhile, Russia and Iran’s relations have grown stronger in recent years as the Iranian-American relationship had turned increasingly bitter under the Trump administration (Khoshnood, 2020). With Russian forces to be stationed and ready in Sudan, America may face a bolstered Iran and potentially more monitoring and interference from Russia regarding Iran-sensitive operations.

What will the future look like?

Aggressions and accusations from the American and Russian governments regarding policies and intentions in the Red Sea arena may be expected in the future. As America continues to operate in the region through providing humanitarian aid and conducting military exercises and missions in the Middle East, they may feel more threatened by the increased Russian presence through foreseeable joint exercises with China or even through a rise in enemy forces using Russian equipment. As the political and military dynamics of the Red Sea region change, the tensions between great powers will likely rise. Although the results may not necessarily be violent, government-issued warnings, aircraft interceptions, and sanctions can be expected in the years to come. Sudan may one day find themselves in a situation where they must choose between accepting more Russian political and military aid at the risk of agitating the American government’s foreign policy in the region. Contrarily and more realistically, the Sudanese government might choose a multi-vector approach which satisfies America’s requirements regarding the Abraham Accords while relying on Russia for political legitimacy. Whichever choice Sudan makes at the end, it will be important to the Red Sea arena of the great powers’ struggle for influence in Africa.

Bibliography

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