Will a Biden Administration Rebuild the Transatlantic Relationship?

“We will be back.”

Those were the words U.S. President-elect Joe Biden used at the 2019 Munich Security Conference to reassure an audience of European leaders frustrated with President Donald Trump’s general disregard for the transatlantic relationship.

U.S.-Europe relations have reached a low point under Trump. Whether threatening to leave the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), engaging in trade disputes with EU allies, or referring to Europe as a “foe,” President Trump has been one of the biggest disruptions to the transatlantic alliance since its formation at the end of World War II. It is no surprise, then, that European leaders rooted for the Biden victory in the November 3^rd presidential election. Throughout his campaign, Biden has vowed to reaffirm America’s commitment to traditional alliances, multilateralism, and democratic values. Biden has promised to return the United States to the Paris Climate Accords and the World Health Organization on “day one” of his presidency. He has also pledged to reengage diplomatically on the Iran nuclear issue and to reaffirm the U.S. commitment to NATO’s mutual defense clause.

All this would be music to the years of European leaders eager to move past the unpredictability of the Trump Administration. It would also reflect the fact that the American public remains fundamentally in favor of the U.S. alliance with Europe, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey.

But while a Democratic White House is likely to be more supportive of international institutions and working closely with its European partners, a Biden presidency will not mark a restoration of the pre-Trump era. That ship has sailed. The nature of the challenges facing the United States and Europe has evolved since 2016. The transatlantic partnership must adapt accordingly.

Addressing the Rise of China:

The upcoming Biden administration’s main foreign policy challenge facing the United States will be managing relations with China. With a strong bipartisan consensus in Washington on the need to confront Beijing, Biden will be expected to continue addressing issues like 5G and technology decoupling, curtailing Chinese investments, and focusing on strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific.

This will create challenges and opportunities for transatlantic cooperation. Unlike Trump, Biden would see the European Union (EU) as a key partner in shaping a common approach toward China. As the world’s largest trading bloc, the EU, working closely with the United States, would have significant leverage in shaping the rules of global digital commerce. In particular, the United States and the EU could collaborate on issues like technology and trade, given concerns from Washington and European capitals about Beijing’s behavior.

Of course, there will be limits to what such an agenda can achieve. Several European countries have avoided picking sides in the emerging U.S.-China rivalry. Some states, like Germany, rely on trade with China. They have therefore avoided taking a tough line on Chinese human rights abuses and have opposed excluding Huawei from their 5G networks. The United States and the EU will have to overcome these differences if they want to develop a common China policy that works.

Confronting Russia:

Biden’s victory could also pave the way for stronger U.S.-EU cooperation on Russia. The President-elect has criticized President Trump for not taking the Russian threat seriously and for cozying up to Vladimir Putin. A Biden administration would seek an alternative Russia policy centered on a strengthened NATO and a robust defense of democracy.

Accordingly, the United States would seek to reduce European dependence on Russian gas as it works toward a clean-energy transition. It would also work closely with the EU to strengthen Ukrainian independence by upholding the recently renewed sanctions regime against the Kremlin.

A More Active Europe:

Renewing the transatlantic relationship, however, will also require Europe taking on more responsibility as a geopolitical partner. With U.S. economic and military resources being diverted towards the Indo-Pacific, Washington will not be able to devote as much time to crises on Europe’s borders. The Biden Administration would therefore expect Europe and NATO to shoulder more of the burden in areas like the Mediterranean and the Middle East. That means stepping up European common defense efforts.

Europe should also be prepared to show initiative on other issues, like trade. The EU could offer to work with Washington to reform institutions like the World Trade Organization and to renew transatlantic trade talks with new flexibility on issues like agriculture, if the United States removes punitive tariffs on EU goods. It could also suggest establishing a transatlantic consultative forum on issues like technology transfer and investment.

Conclusion:

So, while a Biden victory will certainly reinvigorate the transatlantic relationship, it alone will not rebuild it. The United States and Europe will have to work together to forge a more equal partnership that is better suited to addressing today’s global challenges.

References:

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Julian E. Barnes and Helen Cooper (2019), “Trump Discussed Pulling U.S. From NATO, Aides Say Amid New Concerns Over Russia,” The New York Times. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/nato-president-trump.html [Accessed on 25 October 2020]

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Keith Johnson and Robbie Gramer (2020), “The Great Decoupling,” Foreign Policy. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/14/china-us-pandemic-economy-tensions-trump-coronavirus-covid-new-cold-war-economics-the-great-decoupling/ [Accessed on 28 October 2020]

Moira Fagan and Jacob Poushter (2020), “NATO Seen Favorably Across Member States.” Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/02/09/nato-seen-favorably-across-member-states/ [Accessed on 25 October 2020]

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Skidmore, G., 2019. Former Vice President Of The United States Joe Biden Speaking With Attendees At The Presidential Gun Sense Forum Hosted By Everytown For Gun Safety And Moms Demand Action At The Iowa Events Center In Des Moines, Iowa.. [image] Available at: <https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Joe_Biden_(48605397927).jpg> [Accessed 1 December 2020].