Each forecast has an explicit condition that determines the outcome. Read it before forming a view — forecasting the wrong thing is the most common mistake.
2
Enter a probability
Type a number or drag the slider. 0% means you think it definitely won't happen; 100% means certain. Most honest estimates fall between 10% and 90%.
3
Rate your confidence
How much would new evidence move you? High confidence means you'd need substantial new information to shift more than 10 percentage points.
4
Submit and move on
Your estimate joins the aggregate immediately. You can update it any time while the window is open — new information should prompt new estimates.
Submitting without an account? Your estimate carries half the weight of signed submissions. Sign in to build a track record.
Your forecasting profile
Select the regions and topics you cover. PHOEBE will prioritise these forecasts in your view and weight your estimates higher in those domains.
Regions
EuropeMiddle EastAsia-PacificAmericasSouth AsiaAfricaCentral AsiaSE Asia