TITAN PHOEBE Admin

Monitor

Live forecast status and coordinator alerts

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Active forecasts

→ view all

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Open windows

→ filter active

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Alerts

→ jump to alerts

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Analysts

→ Overview tab

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Completed

→ filter completed

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Regions covered

Coverage map

Alerts

Needs action 0 Good to know 0

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Open windows

— time left before each closes

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Forecasts

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All Yes/No Multi-Scenario Election Numeric

All Active Completed

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Setup

Manage and create forecasts

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All Yes/No Multi-Scenario Election

All Active Completed

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None Some Full set

Choose a template

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Yes / No

Binary outcome — will X happen before date Y?

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Multi-scenario

3–6 mutually exclusive outcomes summing to 100%

🗳

Election

FPTP, runoff, or proportional seat distribution

Numeric

Continuous value with a range — GDP, price, count

Code

Question

Resolution criteria

Optional, but recommended — be specific, ambiguous criteria lead to contested resolutions.

Header banner image (optional — shown on the public forecast page)

Card image (optional — logo or flag, shown on the feed card)

No additional configuration needed for Yes / No.

Election system

Race type

Winning threshold (% — auto if blank)

Seats contested (how many win this race)

Total seats (size of the chamber)

Hemicycle style

Reserved seats (safe, uncontested)

Reason (shown on hover)

Counts toward the total and the majority threshold — just excluded from what analysts forecast.

Round label (e.g. "Round 2")

Round note

Candidates / parties

Card layout

Photo / logo shape

Country flag (used in the VS divider for head-to-head)

Display as

Unit

Min

Max

Reference values optional

Known figures worth comparing the forecast against — a target, a current reading, last year. One per line as label: number. Leave blank if the question already makes the comparison obvious; the forecast's own opening figure is shown either way.

Suggested low / mid / high

Calculated from min and max — adjust any of these directly if they don't feel right. Shown as quick-pick suggestions when someone submits an estimate.

Low

Mid

High

End date

Resolution (optional)

How and against what this will actually be resolved. Leave the tolerance blank if you don't want a tolerance band shown at all.

Source

Tolerance type

Tolerance

Submission input pattern

How analysts enter their estimate. Stepper suits small precise counts; compact text (1.5B, 200M) suits exercises where values can range into the millions or billions, since a +/- stepper can't sensibly cover both a "how many ships" exercise and a "billions of euros" one with one step size.

Pattern

Counter style

How the current estimate displays on the forecast page. Pick a sample value below to preview it.

Style

Sample value

Location type

Country

Pin at a country

Generic point

Any exact spot

Named area

Taiwan Strait, etc.

Generic area

Rough region

Region

Country name

Domain topics (pick 1–3)

Select at least 1 topic.

Click the map to set pin location, or use Default capital, or enter coordinates manually.

Click to place pin · scroll to zoom · drag to pan

Latitude

Longitude

Show pin on public map

Select a forecast to view its windows.

Post new evidence

Title

Body

Type

Directional signal

Source credibility

Source URL (optional)

Prior nudge (0–0.05)

Max 5% automatic shift

Overview

Analytics, accuracy, and platform health

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Total forecasts

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Analysts

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Open windows

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Avg Brier score

Submissions per window

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Geographic coverage

Forecast type mix

Aggregate momentum — current window

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Brier scores by analyst (lower = better)

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Calibration — stated vs actual probability

Well-calibrated

Slight overconfidence

Miscalibrated

Each dot = one analyst. Perfect = on the diagonal.

Domain accuracy heat map — analyst × region

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All Active Completed

Code	Question	Type	Aggregate	Participation	Submissions	Disagreement	Window	Quality	Status
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Name	Role	Brier score	Weight	Domain strengths	Last active	Status
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All Supports Yes Supports No Escalatory Mixed

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Edit

Select a forecast to edit

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All Active Completed

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Core

Code

Status

Domain region

Domain topics (pick 1–3)

Deadline

Question

Resolution criteria

What settles it (optional)

Shown under the criteria on the forecast page. Prompted so the questions get asked before the result, not after.

Tags (comma-separated)

Header banner image

Shown as a background in the forecast header on the public page.

Region & topic

Same as the Details tab — changing either copy updates both.

Domain region

Domain topics (pick 1–3)

Location type

Country

Pin at a country

Generic point

Any exact spot

Named area

Taiwan Strait, etc.

Generic area

Rough region

Pin location

Click the map to reposition the pin. Use "Default capital" to auto-set coordinates from the country name.

Click to place pin · scroll to zoom · switch to PAN to drag

Country name

Latitude

Longitude

Show pin on public map

Window schedule

Window length (days)

Decay rate

Submission mode

Staleness threshold

LabelNotesOpensClosesStatusActions

Add one-off window

Label

Opens at

Closes at

Notify opted-in analysts when window opens

Decay rate override (leave blank to inherit)

Add multiple windows

Generates a preview using the window length/decay settings above, starting right after the last known window. Nothing is created until you review and confirm — existing windows are never touched.

How many

DirectionItemSourceWeightActions

Add evidence item

Title

Source URL

Source name

Evidence type

Direction

Source credibility

Publication date & time

Image (optional — satellite imagery, screenshots, charts)

Drag & drop an image, or click to browse

Body / excerpt (required)

Coordinator nudge (optional — suggested calibration shift)

Magnitude 2%

AnalystEstimateWindowSubmittedFlag

Read-only. Outliers flagged automatically when estimate is >2σ from aggregate.

Record outcome

Resolution date

Source / citation URL

Result in brief (optional, a few words)

Shown on the winner’s card. Leave blank and it just says Won.

Coordinator notes

Resolving closes all open windows, locks all submissions, and triggers Brier score calculation for every analyst who submitted. This cannot be undone.

Partial resolution — eliminate scenarios

Mark a scenario as eliminated without fully resolving. Updates the aggregate display without locking submissions.

Audit log

TimeChangeBy

Read-only. All coordinator edits to this forecast are recorded here.

Actions

Index page workshop

Control how forecasts appear on the public index page. Defaults are automatic — override only what you need.

Featured forecast

The featured card sits above all regional sections. Default: auto-selected by analyst activity × viewer engagement. Override to pin a specific forecast.

Current featured

Auto — highest heat score

Pin a forecast

Region order

Drag to reorder. Regions with no active forecasts are hidden automatically regardless of order.

Forecast visibility

Hide specific forecasts from the public index without retiring them. Useful for forecasts still being set up.

Index page settings

Global settings for the public index page.

Heat score weighting

Analyst submissions

60%

Viewer engagement

40%

Cards per region (default visible)