The Struggle for Universal Suffrage in Somalia: Political and Security Challenges
Political Instability, Security Threats, and the Struggle for Universal Suffrage
Introduction
Somalia stands at a critical juncture in its political development, grappling with the challenges of transitioning from a clan-based power-sharing system to a modern democratic framework. Since the collapse of the central government in 1991, the country has faced persistent struggles with political instability, clan rivalries, and security threats from militant groups like Al-Shabaab. While the re-establishment of a federal government in 2000 offered a pathway toward stabilization, the 4.5 clan-based electoral model has hindered efforts to build a cohesive national identity and foster inclusive governance.
In response to these challenges, electoral reforms have emerged as a focal point of Somalia’s political discourse. The introduction of a closed-list proportional representation (PR) system was proposed as a means to enhance representation, promote multi-party democracy, and move beyond the divisive clan-based framework. However, these reforms have been met with resistance from political elites who benefit from the current system, resulting in the adoption of a first-past-the-post (FPTP) model that preserves the status quo.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has been a strong proponent of universal suffrage, emphasizing its necessity for the nation’s democratic progress. His administration has outlined plans for a one-person, one-vote system, aiming to implement it within the next election cycle. However, these efforts have been met with significant resistance from opposition groups, regional states, and security analysts who question the feasibility of such an ambitious reform given Somalia’s current instability.
Security Challenges to Universal Suffrage
Security remains the most pressing challenge to implementing universal suffrage. The presence of Al-Shabaab and other militant groups continues to disrupt electoral processes, with attacks targeting government officials, polling stations, and public gatherings. Al-Shabaab has historically opposed any democratic process and has intensified its attacks during election periods to dissuade voter participation. The increased violence raises concerns over voter safety, the ability to establish polling stations in contested areas, and the federal government’s capacity to conduct elections free from coercion.
Additionally, regional states such as Puntland and Jubaland have expressed concerns over the federal government’s push for centralized electoral control, fearing a shift in political power dynamics. Puntland has particularly resisted efforts to impose an election framework that does not align with its governance structures, citing the need for regional autonomy in electoral processes. The withdrawal of regional states from electoral discussions underscores the fragile relationship between the federal and state governments, further complicating the electoral landscape.
Background
Somalia’s electoral system has undergone significant transformations since its independence, reflecting both the country’s complex clan dynamics and its turbulent political history. The early post-independence period (1960-1969) saw the Somali Republic adopt a closed-list proportional representation (PR) system, which facilitated fair representation across diverse political districts. However, the 1969 military coup disrupted this democratic trajectory, leading to two decades of authoritarian rule, followed by a decade of state collapse and civil war.
In the aftermath of the civil war, Somalia’s political landscape was reshaped through the Djibouti Peace Process in 2000, which introduced the 4.5 clan-based power-sharing formula. This arrangement allocated equal parliamentary seats to the four major clans, while minority clans received half the representation. Although intended as a temporary solution to stabilize the country, the clan-based model entrenched identity politics and hindered the development of a citizen-based democratic system.
Efforts to reform the electoral system formally began in 2017 under President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmajo). An inter-ministerial technical committee recommended a return to the closed-list PR system, citing its advantages in fostering inclusivity, especially for women and minorities, and its capacity to promote multi-party democracy. However, Somalia’s parliament rejected this proposal, favoring instead a first-past-the-post (FPTP) model that reinforced the existing clan-based structure. This decision underscored the self-serving interests of political elites who benefited from the status quo.
The parliamentary rejection of closed-list PR highlighted deeper issues of mistrust among Somalia’s political stakeholders. Regional leaders and members of parliament feared that shifting away from the clan-based model would diminish their influence. Concerns over potential gerrymandering and the concentration of power in Mogadishu further complicated the reform process. Despite the passage of the FPTP-based electoral law in 2020, its implementation faces significant challenges, including logistical constraints, security threats from Al-Shabaab, and unresolved issues related to citizenship laws and territorial boundaries.
Conclusion
Somalia’s electoral reforms remain a critical component of its political and democratic transition. While the introduction of universal suffrage aims to create a more inclusive electoral process, the persistence of security threats, political rivalries, and clan-based opposition poses significant risks to its successful implementation. The ongoing conflicts between the federal government and regional states, particularly in Jubaland and Puntland, highlight the deep-seated political divisions that must be addressed before meaningful reform can take place.
To navigate these challenges, Somalia must adopt a balanced approach that incorporates political consensus, robust security measures, and strengthened democratic institutions. Establishing an independent electoral commission with broad-based support, addressing clan grievances through reconciliation mechanisms, and ensuring security cooperation between federal and regional governments are essential steps toward a stable and transparent electoral process.
Ultimately, Somalia’s future political stability and economic progress hinge on its ability to implement electoral reforms in a way that is both inclusive and conflict-sensitive. Failure to achieve consensus could further destabilize the country, while a well-managed transition could pave the way for a more democratic and secure Somalia.
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https://www.voanews.com/a/somalia-s-leaders-agree-on-framework-for-universal-suffrage/7845398.html
