Seoul’s 48 Hour Nightmare From North Korean Artillery

A renewed Korea conflict would open with North Korean artillery and missile strikes placing Seoul under extreme early-phase risk, potentially causing mass casualties within hours due to proximity and force density. However, layered ROK–US missile defenses and extensive civil protection systems are designed to absorb and rapidly counter such an attack, making outcomes heavily dependent on early detection, suppression of launch systems, and escalation control rather than inevitability of devastation.

Relations between South Korea (ROK) and North Korea (DPRK) have soured over the past several years after potential signs of steps towards reconciliation in the early 21st century. Amid an increasingly militarized North, one that has not only gained combat experience in Kursk but is increasing its nuclear missile stockpile, the Republic of Korea will need to prepare for contingencies on the Peninsula.

One wartime scenario that the ROK looks to avoid is a sustained bombardment of the capital of Seoul, which is in DPRK artillery range. Already one of the world’s most densely populated cities, the first 48 hours of a renewed Korean war could see hundreds of thousands of casualties in Seoul.

Having a population of 9.5 million in the capital, the first several hours in a major war with North Korea would be devastating to the immediate civilian population before the ROK military and U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) could incapacitate the majority of launchers.

Seoul’s Existential Line of Fire

South Korea’s capital, Seoul, is located adjacent to the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) and is also in the line of fire of the DPRK’s artillery. The capital is only 25 to 50 kilometers from the Korean DMZ, while North Korean forces (KPA) are only 30 to 50 kilometers from the border themselves.

According to an August 2020 study by RAND Corporation, a one-hour strike scenario by the KPA against Seoul could see 4,500 to 200,000 casualties. With the threats of high casualties in the South Korean capital, Pyongyang has enacted a state of deterrence before its nuclear program even officially achieved a breakthrough.

According to the article ‘Miracle on the Han River,’ South Korea grew economically and militarily into one of the world’s top militaries while the North stagnated. The DPRK relies on decades-old artillery and armor, while the ROK fields a 21st-century technological fighting force.

Despite shortfalls in recruitment amongst the South Korean population, the KPA would be overwhelmed by the ROK military and USFK unless direct intervention were to come from Russia or China. As a result of this gap on the Peninsula, the North has heavily consolidated its rocket force capabilities towards the South Korean capital with enormous quantities.

The Devastation KPA Artillery, Drone, and Rocket Fire Could Employ

North Korea fields a substantial quantity of both older and newer artillery and rocket systems. As of 2018, the KPA fields 2,300 multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) with 12,000 tube artillery pieces. Amongst the KPA artillery are the 240-millimeter BM-24 multiple rocket launcher (MBRL), the Koksan 170 self-propelled gun, and the KN-09 alongside its newer KN-25 MLRS.

The 240-millimeter BM-24 MBRL has a range of 60 km, which puts Seoul in range of the artillery. A flaw in the system is that the BM-24 holds a large heat signature, which the ROK military and USFK can detect, exposing the artillery to incapacitation.

The Koksan 170 self-propelled gun can range from 40 to 60 km, which also gives the KPA options to target densely populated areas. However, normal projectiles from the Koksan 170 would have insignificant effect unless they become rocket-assisted. The KPA reportedly currently has 500 of these systems, which possibly could be spread out into four battery units of 125 each.

Akin to Russia’s Smerch system, the KN-09 has a range of upwards of 200 km. Alongside Seoul, the KN-09 could also target bases and forward positions of the ROK Armed Forces and USFK if employed.

The KN-25 is an upgraded version of the KN-09 and the newest artillery/ballistic missile system of the KPA. With a max range of 280 km, the KN-25 is more of a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) whose purpose is to incapacitate rear troop formations, logistics, and command centers of USFK and the ROK.

However, if launched towards major population centers of Seoul, the KN-25 would be amongst the KPA’s deadliest missiles due to its mass (660-1,100 pounds), but also because the missile can be fitted with the Hwasan-31. This would make it possess nuclear payload-level capabilities because the KN-25 acts more as a missile. Authority over the missles would fall under North Korea’s rocket force, the KPASF.

Amid the mutual defense pact and partnership with the Russian Federation after the KPA intervened in the Ukraine war, Pyongyang has rapidly expanded its first-person view (FPV) drone capabilities that Moscow has shared. The KPA employs two variations of drones with the Saetbyol-4 and Saetbyol-9, of which the latter can fire precision munitions or small cruise missiles.

Lastly, on April 8th and 19th, 2026, North Korea’s state news agency, KCNA, claimed their military launched and tested Hwasong 11-A and 11-D SRBMs that were modified with cluster munitions. With capabilities to integrate cluster munitions into their SRBMs, which can cause major damage to civilian population centers with shrapnel, the USFK and Seoul will need to counter the Hwasong 11-A and 11-D variants.

According to an April 22nd report by 38 North, the DPRK’s tests of SRBMs with submunitions coincided with Iran’s use of similar cluster-fitted SRBMs against Israel in 2026 to demonstrate to the U.S. that the KPA could potentially breach American and South Korean air defenses as well.

Air Defense Contingencies

As aforementioned, North Korea used the conventional threat of levelling Seoul as a deterrence against the United States and ROK before its nuclear weapons program had fully achieved its threshold on October 9th, 2006. Still, despiting having one of the world’s largest artillery stockpiles, contingencies have been created in lieu of the capital of Seoul being within the KPA’s line of sight.

South Korea is currently on a fast-track to develop a homemade Iron Dome, the Low Altitude Missile Defence system (LAMD). The LAMD, originally scheduled to be deployed in 2031, will be operational by 2029.

A key difference between the Israeli Iron Dome and the LAMD is that while the former prioritizes intermittent rockets against unconventional militias, such as Hamas, the latter is designed to intercept tens of thousands of rounds that would be fired at Seoul in the first several hours of a full-scale war.

Alongside the LAMD, the ROK military also fields the Cheongung-II (M-SAM) system. The Cheongung-II is capable of defending cities like Seoul, Incheon, and others, as the M-SAM is designed to intercept ballistic missiles and enemy aircraft.

Seoul has valuable data and experience for the Cheongung-II as it was battle-tested by Abu Dhabi during the 2026 Iran war. The Cheongung-II has a 90% interception rate against Iranian ballistic missiles and aids South Korea’s posture towards layered air defenses for Seoul.

Lastly, South Korea is finalizing plans for long-range surface-to-air missiles known as the L-SAM, which is expected to be deployed in 2028. The L-SAM follows the Cheongung-II and the LAMD as part of the overall layered Korea Air and Missile Defence (KAMD). South Korea’s air defense capabilities are also supplemented by USFK—particularly with a Patriot missile system and a Terminal High Altitude Air Defence system (THAAD).

Civil Defense Contingencies

Despite having layered air defenses and a proficient military, the 2026 Iran war showcased that some missiles and drones will get through and hit critical energy infrastructure and cities regardless. As such, the need for civil defense becomes even more essential.

South Korea presently has over 19,000 shelters nationwide for air raids and missile strikes, with 3,200 in the Seoul urban area alone. In October 2025, Seoul started plans for a key shelter designed to protect civilians from a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack near the southern portions of the city. It is expected to hold at least 1,000 civilians and the facility is expected to be completed by 2028, alongside other modernized nuclear shelters planned for creation by South Korea’s civil defense initiative.

If war were to break out with significant damage to Seoul, Sejong City has been designated to become the new South Korean administrative capital. Still, due to its less appealing location, the ROK government has struggled to persuade citizens to relocate to the new city today, but if Seoul were to be incapacitated, either Sejong City or Busan would be designated as a new capital.

Although North Korea maintains a significant conventional ordnance stockpile that could kill or injure tens of thousands of civilians in Seoul, its stockpile is not invincible; South Korea and the U.S. can counter it.

Noted in a November 2024 article by the Modern War Institute, the KPA fired hundreds of artillery shells at Yeonpyeong Island in 2010, with only eighty accurately landing. North Korea’s older artillery stockpile, to which many are now being allocated to Russia’s war effort, will be a blind spot for the KPA, which will be unable to keep up with the offensive precision munitions the U.S. and ROK forces have.

Seoul benefits from many of its buildings having reinforced concrete structures, which older artillery from Pyongyang would struggle to bring down fully. Still, due to the defense pact with Russia, North Korea’s greatest non-nuclear threats could come from its advancing FPV drone capabilities, along the targeting data from chips and satellites provided by the Kremlin.

Lastly, the KPA’s missiles are supplemented by fuel which can be detected with satellites by the ROK and U.S. intelligence agencies, giving their forces and civil defense supplemental time to prepare. In the event of large-scale troop movements and the fueling of rockets, a preemptive conventional strike would be a top contingency for the U.S. and ROK armed forces, as there would be an opportunity to mitigate thousands of civilian casualties in Seoul.

The threat matrix of an ‘unthinkable’ scenario of a mass casualty event via bombardment of Seoul is real, and U.S. Forces Korea and the South Korean government have planned extensive contingencies if full-scale war were to take place again. With North Korea gaining more combat experience and technological capabilities, it is now imperative that greater war planning and civil defense be implemented on the Korean Peninsula.