Migration in Europe – a New Pact and Its Effects on Refugees

The European Union (EU) is frequently perceived as a “safe haven” for individuals who are fleeing countries that are affected by armed conflict or political persecution. Migrants and refugees are prepared to incur substantial financial expenses and embark on perilous and taxing journeys in order to reach any EU member country, where they will subsequently continue their migration to highly developed nations, such as Germany or France.

The European Union positions itself as a community that upholds human rights, emphasizing that individuals who are in need of international protection can rely on support. The migration policy of the EU has, however, undergone substantial changes since the 2015 migration crisis, where the migratory wave resulted in social, political, and administrative issues rather than the anticipated labor force for an aging Europe.

Refugees and EU policy

Individuals forced to flee their country due to human rights violations or persecution have the right to seek protection within the European Union. Articles 18 and 19 of the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU guarantee both asylum and subsidiary protection. Furthermore, international law explicitly defines refugee status, offering legal protection to those who meet specific criteria. According to international conventions, a refugee is someone unable to return to their country of origin due to a well-founded fear of persecution, armed conflict, or serious threats to public order (UNHCR Polska, 2015). A fundamental principle of refugee protection is non-refoulement, established in Article 33 of the 1951 Geneva Convention. This principle prohibits states from expelling or returning refugees to a country where their life or freedom would be at risk due to their race, religion, nationality, social group, or political opinion (UNHCR Polska, 2015). As signatories to the Convention, EU member states are obligated to uphold this principle, ensuring protection for those who qualify as refugees in accordance with international law.

However, the EU’s approach to asylum is undergoing significant changes with the introduction of the new Pact on Migration and Asylum. Adopted in early 2024, this reform aims to enhance the management of migration across the EU (European Commission, 2024) and will officially take effect in 2026. Nevertheless, the proposed mechanisms have sparked controversy, particularly regarding their potential impact on the rights of refugees raising concerns about their compatibility with established international protections. The new border procedure, designed to speed up asylum processing and swiftly return individuals to their countries of origin or transit, is among the most criticized elements of the pact. This is particularly problematic for individuals from countries with an asylum recognition rate below 20% (González Enríquez, 2024), as it could lead to automatic rejections without considering individual circumstances, thereby jeopardizing the right to asylum. Additionally, NGOs warn of human rights violations, particularly due to the widespread use of detention, including families with children, which could harm their well-being. Concerns have also been raised about potential discrimination based on race, ethnicity, or religion under the new migration controls (González Enríquez, 2024).

Another contentious aspect is the externalization of border protection, which strengthens cooperation with third countries to curb migration flows before reaching the EU (Bouvier, 2024). While intended to regulate asylum seekers’ entry, this approach raises concerns about compliance with international protection obligations. Critics argue it may limit access to asylum and expose refugees to risks in countries lacking adequate human rights safeguards.

The policy of returning asylum seekers to “safe third countries” adds to the controversy (González Enríquez, 2024). EU states will have the authority to deport refugees to countries where they have established connections, provided those nations meet certain safety standards. Moreover, the new system mandates detention for many irregular arrivals, including those rescued at sea (Sunderland, 2023). These individuals will undergo expedited asylum procedures with limited access to protections such as legal aid. Additionally, fingerprinting children as young as six years old raises serious concerns about their rights (Bouvier, 2024). What is more, the package includes a “crisis regulation” that will enable EU countries that are experiencing a “mass influx” or a “situation of instrumentalization of refugees by a third country or non-state actor” to deviate from critical human rights obligations. This move will bring the denial of the right to asylum closer to legalization (Sunderland, 2023).

As a result, the pact has faced widespread criticism for potentially weakening international protection. Detention policies and cooperation with third countries may further erode human rights standards, while fast-tracked asylum procedures and deportation mechanisms risk violating refugee rights. Many human rights organizations and experts argue that the pact is excessively restrictive and overlooks the humanitarian dimensions of migration policy.

Acceptance of refugees in individual EU countries

The implementation of the EU’s new Pact on Migration and Asylum has sparked debates on its potential impact on refugee flows and asylum procedures across member states. To better understand these effects, this analysis examines the refugee populations in Poland, Germany, France, and Greece between 2021 and 2024. The data used in this analysis come from the UNHCR bi-annual report.

Few factors determined  the selection of those countries. Poland was selected due to its involvement in the Ukrainian crisis and its proximity to Russia and Belarus. Greece was selected due to its role in safeguarding the southern border of the EU. France and Germany were selected due to their reputations as the primary destinations for refugees.

Poland is a frontline country in the Ukrainian refugee crisis and the eastern border of the EU, with Belarus and Russia as its neighbors. Poland claims that these nations are using refugees as “bullets” in the hybrid conflict that aims to destabilize the EU by exerting political and social pressure on its borders. Poland experienced an unprecedented surge in its refugee population in 2022 (UNHCR, 2022d). Compared to 2021, the number of refugees increased by an astonishing 42,900%, reaching 1.21 million (UNHCR, 2021c). However, in the following years, this figure began to decline, dropping by 18.2% in 2023 and a further 2% in 2024 (UNHCR, 2023b; UNHCR, 2024c). Despite this decrease, the refugee population in Poland remains significantly higher than pre-2022 levels, underscoring the long-term impact of the war. In response to this ongoing situation, the Polish government has already begun implementing the so-called instrumentalization by incorporating it into the law in February of this year. As a result, the possibility of temporarily limiting the right to apply for international protection has been introduced.

In contrast, Germany has consistently maintained the highest refugee population among the four countries, and it has experienced a consistent year-on-year increase.  It is an appealing destination for refugees due to its comprehensive resettlement programs, well-established asylum system, and economic stability. Between 2021 and 2022, the number of refugees grew by 85.8%, reaching 2.23 million (UNHCR, 2021b; UNHCR, 2022c). This upward trend continued in 2023, with a 12.5% increase, followed by a further 6.3% rise in 2024, bringing the total to 2.67 million (UNHCR 2024a; UNHCR, 2025c). These figures indicate that Germany remains a key destination for refugees, largely due to its well-established asylum system and comprehensive resettlement programs. However, in response to the rising numbers, Germany introduced temporary border controls starting in the autumn of 2023. These measures were aimed at curbing illegal migration, particularly in response to the increasing number of individuals attempting to enter Germany via Poland.

Conversely, France has also observed an increase in its refugee population, albeit at a slower rate.  Despite the fact that France has a robust legal framework for asylum, its bureaucratic inefficiencies and limited integration programs contribute to the slower growth of its refugee populations. Between 2021 and 2022, the number of refugees increased by 40.6%, reaching 613,271 (UNHCR 2021a; UNHCR 2022b). However, in 2023, this figure remained almost unchanged, indicating a brief period of stagnation (UNHCR 2025a). In 2024, the trend shifted again, with a 12.4% rise, pushing the total refugee population to 689,273 (UNHCR, 2025b). This pattern suggests that while France continues to receive a steady influx of refugees, its growth rate is more moderate compared to Poland and Germany.

Similarly, Greece has experienced a continuous, albeit more gradual, increase in its refugee population  because it serves as a key entry point for refugees arriving via the Mediterranean, particularly from the Middle East and Africa. From 2021 to 2022, the number of refugees grew by 43%, reaching 147,420 (UNHCR, 2021d; UNHCR, 2022a). This was followed by a 14.9% increase in 2023 and a sharper 26.7% rise in 2024, bringing the total to 214,574 (UNHCR, 2023a; UNHCR, 2024b). This steady upward trajectory underscores Greece’s key role as an entry point for asylum seekers in the EU. In response to rising numbers, Greece has designated Turkey as a “safe third country” for asylum seekers from certain nations. However, this decision raises concerns about fair asylum procedures, as individuals could be returned to Turkey without properly reviewing their claims, highlighting the challenges of balancing effective migration management with fair treatment under the EU Migration Pact.

In summary, Poland, Germany, France, and Greece all encounter substantial obstacles in managing refugee populations; however, their strategies vary in response to their distinctive national circumstances. Poland and Germany, which are significant destinations, have experienced fluctuations in refugee populations. Poland has prioritized legal restrictions, while Germany has implemented border controls to regulate migration.  In contrast, France and Greece have experienced more gradual increases, with Greece contending with its role as a Mediterranean entry point and France contending with bureaucratic inefficiencies.  All four countries underscore the EU Migration Pact’s broader challenges, which include the delicate balance between security, migration management, and fair asylum procedures. While the pact aims to streamline the asylum process, measures such as expedited procedures and the designation of “safe third countries” have sparked concerns about restricted access to protection and potential human rights violations. This tension between stricter border policies and humanitarian obligations remains a key issue in the evolving European migration framework.

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